Lucky vs. Repeatability: A Key Insight for Smarter Trading

Trading is a journey, one filled with highs, lows, and a constant drive to improve.
Recently, I came across an idea on Podcast that truly resonated with me: the concept of luck versus repeatability.

This distinction is critical—it’s the difference between chasing short-term gains that may never happen again and developing a strategy that can deliver consistent results over time. Let me explain.

The Role of Luck: Lessons from the 2017 ICO Boom

Think back to 2017, the golden age of initial coin offerings (ICOs). When a new crypto token launched, there was a rush to buy it, often driving the price up by 10x, 50x, or even 100x in a matter of days.
For many, this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to turn small investments into life-changing wealth.

But what happened next?

That strategy no longer works today. The sheer number of tokens being created—thousands daily—means money is now spread too thin for any single token to experience those explosive gains. What worked in 2017 relied on luck, not on a repeatable edge in the market.

Luck is a fascinating aspect of trading. It can make you rich once, but without the skills to preserve and grow that wealth, it often fades away as quickly as it appeared.

Repeatability: Why Market Cycles Matter

Now let’s contrast this with something far more enduring: market cycles.

Markets have always oscillated between fear and greed.
During times of greed, prices often surge beyond their intrinsic value.
Conversely, fear can drive prices below their true value. These cycles aren’t random—they’re rooted in human psychology and have been evident for decades.

For example, during bull markets, optimism often pushes valuations to unsustainable levels. Then, a sudden shock—be it economic, political, or otherwise—triggers a wave of fear, and the cycle reverses.
This ebb and flow have happened in the past, and will likely continue into the future.

This is what makes market cycles repeatable. Unlike luck, which depends on being in the right place at the right time, repeatability allows you to build a foundation for sustainable success.

Compounding: The Key to Long-Term Growth

Once you adopt a repeatable trading strategy, you unlock the power of compounding. Even with a modest starting capital, consistent returns can lead to significant growth over time. The beauty of compounding lies in its exponential nature—small gains, when reinvested, can snowball into substantial wealth.

This doesn’t happen overnight, but that’s the point. Repeatable strategies thrive on patience and discipline, allowing you to grow your account steadily and responsibly.

A Common Mistake in Pullback Trading

Let’s take a practical example: pullback trading.

Many traders focus on waiting for the price to re-test a key level, like previous resistance that could turn into support. While this approach makes sense in theory, the market doesn’t always play by the rules. Prices often fail to re-test those levels, continuing their move without offering the ideal entry point.

The solution? Plan for multiple scenarios. Understand that pullbacks can vary in depth and structure, and be prepared to adapt. Flexibility is key when applying any repeatable strategy.

A Thought to Keep in Mind

One of the most liberating truths about trading is this: the market doesn’t care about you. It doesn’t know your goals, your dreams, or your trades. Losses aren’t personal—they’re just part of the game.

The real question is how you respond to them. Each loss is an opportunity to reflect, learn, and refine your approach. Over time, this process turns a good strategy into a great one.

Final Thoughts

As traders, we’re constantly faced with choices. Should we chase the next big thing, hoping for a stroke of luck? Or should we focus on developing strategies grounded in repeatable principles?

For me, the answer is clear. While luck may occasionally play a role, it’s the repeatable strategies—those built on solid foundations—that lead to lasting success.

The next time you evaluate a trading approach, ask yourself: Is this lucky, or is it repeatable? The answer might just reshape the way you trade.