1. Resistance and Pivot Zone: - The price recently tested the $99,800 level, marking a new All-Time High (ATH) in November 2024. - The pivot zone near $92,800–$93,000 appears critical. A daily close below $92,800 could trigger a strong bearish move.
2. Bearish Scenario: - If the price closes below $92,800, a significant drop toward $79,000 and potentially $71,000 is anticipated. - The bearish sentiment is supported by low trading volume, indicating weak buyer participation at current levels. Historical volume trends show stronger bearish reactions in similar conditions.
3. Bullish Scenario: - To maintain bullish momentum, the price must stabilize above $98,800, confirmed by a daily close above this level. - If the bullish trend resumes, potential targets could range between $104,000–$110,000 (above the primary ascending channel).
4. Volume Analysis: - A consistent decline in volume compared to 2021 and 2018 suggests exhaustion in the upward trend. - Low volume after a significant rally often signals a possible trend reversal or consolidation.
5. Channel Dynamics: - The primary ascending channel remains intact. The current price action is near the upper resistance line of this channel, increasing the likelihood of rejection. - Historically, price rejection at the upper channel line has resulted in sharp pullbacks (e.g., 2021 ATH).
6. Demand Zone: - A demand zone is highlighted between $49,000–$64,000, which could act as a major support area in case of a strong bearish move.
7. General Direction: - The broader trend remains bullish in the long term, but the short to medium-term signals indicate a potential correction or consolidation.
--- Summary and Next Steps:
- Bearish Targets: - $79,000: First key support level. - $71,000: Strong support and possible rebound zone if $79,000 breaks.
- Bullish Confirmation: - Stability above $98,800 is required to regain bullish momentum, targeting $104,000–$110,000.
- Key Trigger Points: - Watch for a daily candle close below $92,800 for bearish confirmation. - Monitor volume dynamics; increasing sell volume would further validate the bearish outlook.
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