H1 demand at 0.6914/0.6926 showing relatively strong confluence
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in July, particularly as intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) demonstrates signs of weakening.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, however, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD ousted resistance at 0.6931 at the beginning of last week, with the latter now featured as support.
Despite the lack of buyer intent so far, the break to the upside shifts focus towards two nearby trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671); a violation here unmasks another resistance at 0.7197.
With respect to support under 0.6931, 0.6755 is on the radar, as well as the 200-day simple moving average, currently circulating the 0.6675 region.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The DXY recovered off lows amid late trade Monday, directing AUD/USD lower.
In terms of technical areas, however, we remain pretty much unchanged.
Formed from June 10 to July 1, H4 established a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern enthusiasts. The breakout witnessed at the beginning of July unearthed a buy signal, though heading into mid-month price has entered a ranging phase (blue) between 0.6925/0.6999.
If we remain above 0.6931 on the daily timeframe, breaking above the aforesaid range is a possibility, bound for nearby supply at 0.7058/0.7029.
H1 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The H4 range underlined above at 0.6925/0.6999 is contained by supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (and 0.70), and demand from 0.6914/0.6926.
As such, these areas are worth keeping a tab on for potential reversal trades as long as the aforesaid H4 range remains intact.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price appears to be squeezing sellers out of the market. Despite this, daily buyers stress a brittle tone around support at 0.6931.
All the while daily price respects 0.6931, the lower edge of the current H4 range will continue to hold at 0.6925, bolstered by H1 demand at 0.6914/0.6926.
As a consequence, thanks to recent selling, buyers may hone in on the H1 demand today. Prudent traders, nevertheless, will also prepare for the possibility of a whipsaw forming to the 0.69 level.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in July, particularly as intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) demonstrates signs of weakening.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, however, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD ousted resistance at 0.6931 at the beginning of last week, with the latter now featured as support.
Despite the lack of buyer intent so far, the break to the upside shifts focus towards two nearby trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671); a violation here unmasks another resistance at 0.7197.
With respect to support under 0.6931, 0.6755 is on the radar, as well as the 200-day simple moving average, currently circulating the 0.6675 region.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The DXY recovered off lows amid late trade Monday, directing AUD/USD lower.
In terms of technical areas, however, we remain pretty much unchanged.
Formed from June 10 to July 1, H4 established a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern enthusiasts. The breakout witnessed at the beginning of July unearthed a buy signal, though heading into mid-month price has entered a ranging phase (blue) between 0.6925/0.6999.
If we remain above 0.6931 on the daily timeframe, breaking above the aforesaid range is a possibility, bound for nearby supply at 0.7058/0.7029.
H1 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The H4 range underlined above at 0.6925/0.6999 is contained by supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (and 0.70), and demand from 0.6914/0.6926.
As such, these areas are worth keeping a tab on for potential reversal trades as long as the aforesaid H4 range remains intact.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price appears to be squeezing sellers out of the market. Despite this, daily buyers stress a brittle tone around support at 0.6931.
All the while daily price respects 0.6931, the lower edge of the current H4 range will continue to hold at 0.6925, bolstered by H1 demand at 0.6914/0.6926.
As a consequence, thanks to recent selling, buyers may hone in on the H1 demand today. Prudent traders, nevertheless, will also prepare for the possibility of a whipsaw forming to the 0.69 level.
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