Important things to note:
BTC is showing oversold on 1D timeframe.
BTC has retested previous low like I said would happen in my last update.
BTC has either found its bottom or retest 42k before heading up.
On chain data shows typical weakness but nothing indicating a bear market.
Total2 and 3 both look like they are near the bottom.
Structurally, the alts don't look bad, they needed to pullback for accumulation.
If you don't know how to time the pullbacks, look at BTC 1D RSI.
ADA looks about as expected during this pullback.
It has tried to recover twice when oversold, but BTC pushed it back down.
That shows there is buying interest in ADA, V shaped recovery likely.
You can see on the chart where oversold conditions precede recoveries.
The recovery will make another basing pattern that has flushed out the weak hands.
This is a great time to buy.
Important dates to note:
Evergrande payments (largest payment of 2.1B due March 23, 2022).
FED bond tapering (updates coming on Dec 14th and 15th).
I feel a bit better so I wanted to start putting out charts again. Let's start with on chain data. From what I can see, there is no indication of a bear market, there is just weakness due to the pullback. Therefore, I must assume the bull market will continue. BTC is showing oversold on the 1D and has retested previous lows, however this does not mean it cannot retest 42k before heading upward. If you take a look at the Total2 or Total3 charts, they look almost exactly like most of the alts right now. The structure isn't bad, this will just cause accumulation. This pullback is very needed and if we can assume we are still in a bull market, the breakout due to this pullback will be very nice. You can see that ADA showed oversold on RSI previously which is a great indication of a bottom. ADA has tried to recover twice during this period but the first time it was pushed back down due to BTC. The recovery for ADA is likely to be V shaped. I have showed exactly what I believe the recovery will look like and I have said this before in Oct. This is a great time to buy, I have been doubling down on various alts I think will move, and I picked up some more BTC during the pullback as well. However, there needs to be a bit of caution because the FED is going to update everyone on the tapering tomorrow and Tuesday. If Jpow says something crazy, the market will react. I expect more aggressive tapering because otherwise we will have stagflation and the politicians will never want that on their record. Thanks again everyone!
Tell me what you think?
This is not financial advice. DYODD.
BTC is showing oversold on 1D timeframe.
BTC has retested previous low like I said would happen in my last update.
BTC has either found its bottom or retest 42k before heading up.
On chain data shows typical weakness but nothing indicating a bear market.
Total2 and 3 both look like they are near the bottom.
Structurally, the alts don't look bad, they needed to pullback for accumulation.
If you don't know how to time the pullbacks, look at BTC 1D RSI.
ADA looks about as expected during this pullback.
It has tried to recover twice when oversold, but BTC pushed it back down.
That shows there is buying interest in ADA, V shaped recovery likely.
You can see on the chart where oversold conditions precede recoveries.
The recovery will make another basing pattern that has flushed out the weak hands.
This is a great time to buy.
Important dates to note:
Evergrande payments (largest payment of 2.1B due March 23, 2022).
FED bond tapering (updates coming on Dec 14th and 15th).
I feel a bit better so I wanted to start putting out charts again. Let's start with on chain data. From what I can see, there is no indication of a bear market, there is just weakness due to the pullback. Therefore, I must assume the bull market will continue. BTC is showing oversold on the 1D and has retested previous lows, however this does not mean it cannot retest 42k before heading upward. If you take a look at the Total2 or Total3 charts, they look almost exactly like most of the alts right now. The structure isn't bad, this will just cause accumulation. This pullback is very needed and if we can assume we are still in a bull market, the breakout due to this pullback will be very nice. You can see that ADA showed oversold on RSI previously which is a great indication of a bottom. ADA has tried to recover twice during this period but the first time it was pushed back down due to BTC. The recovery for ADA is likely to be V shaped. I have showed exactly what I believe the recovery will look like and I have said this before in Oct. This is a great time to buy, I have been doubling down on various alts I think will move, and I picked up some more BTC during the pullback as well. However, there needs to be a bit of caution because the FED is going to update everyone on the tapering tomorrow and Tuesday. If Jpow says something crazy, the market will react. I expect more aggressive tapering because otherwise we will have stagflation and the politicians will never want that on their record. Thanks again everyone!
Tell me what you think?
This is not financial advice. DYODD.
Komentarz:
Bullish Divergence on BTC 1D RSI
Komentarz:
The bounce from BTC was pretty lackluster if you ask me. I would say that we will have to wait for something definitive but you should still prepare for a fall to test the 42k low. I have noticed that leverage is creeping back up, and some alts have not dropped enough, ETH especially. So though I believe we are near the end of the pullback, I haven't seen enough clear evidence to call it. I have used this time to buy more and rebalance my portfolio. Some alts that had a deep correction, I picked up a bit more and shuffled funds around a bit. I have about 20% cash on hand left right now, but I have been buying almost everyday since the pullback. I was really looking forward to kicking back and relaxing for the rest of this bullrun but due to the pullback, I can't really miss this opportunity. Since I was buying, my portfolio was light in some areas and I found good assets to fill my weaker sectors. Anyways, I am feeling a lot better. I have found that hard cardio for at least 1.5 hours per day seems to do the trick. I was feeling so down in the dumps I almost didn't capitalize on the fall because I spent the entire week in the hospital and that was my first day home. Luckily, I pulled myself together and though I only got 1 lucky BTC order filled, I am glad I got up and traded. You know when you are sitting there dealing with a family emergency, it puts a lot of things into perspective. You don't really care about money at that point. It was hard to post a chart that Friday, but I am glad I did because I am back charting and have been buying since then. I also got to catch up on the market and I am feeling very confident. It also helped me deal with the negativity that gets flung my way whenever there is a pullback. Since everyone knows what has been going on with me, it let me know who I was dealing with when I see comments pop up like that. I do feel that a bad experience like that still found a way to have a positive effect on me.
Komentarz:
FOMC news briefing in a half hour. This should be interesting.
Komentarz:
Jpow speaking now.
Komentarz:
Overall people have went from saying "the bear market is here" to now "this will be a long accumulation period like May.
This is my thoughts on it: the most likely scenario in my opinion is that we will push above 53k at the end of DEC or early JAN, which is important because that is the level you can consider BTC "bullish" again. Now, while it can certainly have a long accumulation period like in May, I don't think comparing it to the conditions in May is fair. There were FAR more coins dumped in the may crash than there were this time so of course it would take a long accumulation period to get back up to speed. To be specific, the selling volume on just the first day of the crash was more than 3x greater than the largest sell off during this pullback (I am not even counting the days that followed which also had huge losses). Now I do not want you to think this is just hopium lol. This is what I think is correct by looking at the data. I could be wrong, but that is just what I think.
This is my thoughts on it: the most likely scenario in my opinion is that we will push above 53k at the end of DEC or early JAN, which is important because that is the level you can consider BTC "bullish" again. Now, while it can certainly have a long accumulation period like in May, I don't think comparing it to the conditions in May is fair. There were FAR more coins dumped in the may crash than there were this time so of course it would take a long accumulation period to get back up to speed. To be specific, the selling volume on just the first day of the crash was more than 3x greater than the largest sell off during this pullback (I am not even counting the days that followed which also had huge losses). Now I do not want you to think this is just hopium lol. This is what I think is correct by looking at the data. I could be wrong, but that is just what I think.
Komentarz:
looks like a diamond bottom on BTC to me.
1 - we are at a significant bottom
2 - the bear market is around the corner.
Those were two options. I should have made that more clear. It is an either/or statement. So only option 1 or option 2 can be true. I believe it is option 1 and we are near the bottom of the pullback. I do not believe the bear market is around the corner because the on chain data does not suggest that. There would have to be some unforeseen event that would cause something like that prematurely (stock market crash).