MA200 Deviation Percentile200-Day MA Deviation with Dynamic Thresholds
OVERVIEW
This indicator measures price deviation from the 200-day moving average as a percentage, with dynamically calculated overbought/oversold thresholds based on historical percentiles.
Best suited for broad market indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM, etc.) where the 200-day MA serves as a reliable long-term trend indicator. Individual stocks may exhibit more erratic behavior around this level.
CALCULATION
Deviation (%) = (Close - 200MA) / 200MA x 100
Dynamic thresholds are derived from actual historical distribution rather than assuming normal distribution:
- Overbought threshold = 97.5th percentile of historical deviations
- Oversold threshold = 2.5th percentile of historical deviations
SETTINGS
MA Length (default: 200)
Moving average period.
Lookback Period (default: 1260)
Historical window for threshold calculation. 1260 bars approximates 5 years of daily data.
Threshold Percentile (default: 5%)
Two-tailed threshold. 5% places overbought/oversold boundaries at the 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles respectively.
INTERPRETATION
Deviation Value
- Positive: Price trading above 200MA
- Negative: Price trading below 200MA
- Magnitude indicates extent of deviation
Percentile Ranking (0-100%)
- Shows where current deviation ranks historically
- Above 90%: Historically elevated
- Below 10%: Historically depressed
Dynamic Threshold Lines
- Red line: Upper boundary based on historical distribution
- Green line: Lower boundary based on historical distribution
- These adapt automatically to each asset's volatility characteristics
APPLICATION
Mean Reversion
Extreme deviations tend to normalize over time. When deviation exceeds dynamic thresholds, probability of mean reversion increases.
Trend Assessment
Sustained positive/negative deviation confirms trend direction. Zero-line crossovers may signal trend changes.
NOTES
- Optimized for daily timeframe on market indices
- Requires sufficient historical data (minimum equal to lookback period)
- Extreme readings do not guarantee immediate reversals
- Use in conjunction with other analysis methods
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