PROTECTED SOURCE SCRIPT
Advanced Bitcoin Trend Following Strategy
Title: Bitcoin Multi-Factor Trend Following Strategy
Description:
The Bitcoin Multi-Factor Trend Following Strategy is designed for traders seeking a robust, multi-factor approach to trend following in Bitcoin markets. This script combines technical indicators and statistical methods to identify trend directions, optimize entry and exit points, and manage position sizing based on volatility and leverage constraints. Key features of the strategy include:
Multi-Indicator Trend Forecasting:
This strategy employs three trend forecasting methods: range, exponential moving average (EMA), and Bollinger Bands. Each method can be independently enabled or disabled, giving traders flexibility in how trends are identified and followed.
Range Forecast: Calculates forecast based on the range (high and low) of recent prices, with optional smoothing via a Kalman filter to reduce noise.
EMA Spread Forecast: Utilizes the spread between fast and slow EMAs to gauge the trend’s strength, adjusted for volatility.
Bollinger Band Forecast: Measures the proximity of price to Bollinger Band levels to assess trend intensity.
Kalman Filter for Smoothing:
The Kalman filter is applied to price data for smoother trend estimation, particularly within the range forecast. This allows the strategy to reduce noise and focus on more reliable price signals.
Volatility-Adjusted Position Sizing:
The strategy incorporates volatility targeting to dynamically adjust position sizes based on current market conditions. Traders can set an annualized volatility target to control the risk level, with position size scaled accordingly to maintain consistent risk exposure. A maximum leverage cap ensures that position sizes do not exceed a user-defined threshold, offering an additional layer of risk control.
Dynamic Entry and Exit Points:
Entry and exit points are based on customizable thresholds that determine trend strength and are sensitive to market volatility. The script monitors changes in forecast values and automatically adjusts trades to capitalize on emerging trends or exit weakening ones. The strategy includes an option to close all open positions when trend forecasts fall below defined thresholds, ensuring an automated approach to risk management.
Backtesting and Performance Metrics:
To support strategy optimization, the script includes a backtest mode that calculates key performance metrics such as Sharpe Ratio, Buy & Hold profit, Strategy profit, Win rate, and other metrics. These metrics are displayed in a summary table directly on the chart, providing real-time insight into the strategy’s historical performance compared to a buy-and-hold approach.
Configurable Time and Date Range:
Users can specify start and end dates for the backtest period, allowing for focused backtesting over any desired timeframe. This feature enables in-depth analysis of performance across varying market conditions.
Use Case:
This strategy is best suited for experienced traders who wish to apply a structured trend-following approach in Bitcoin or other high-volatility assets. It is highly customizable, making it adaptable to various market conditions and trading styles. The combination of trend forecasting methods, volatility targeting, and automatic leverage control offers a balanced approach to capturing long-term trends while managing risk.
Parameters:
Entry Threshold: Adjusts the sensitivity of the entry point for trends. Lower values make the strategy more reactive.
Annual Volatility Target: Controls the risk level by targeting a specific annualized volatility percentage.
Max Leverage: Caps the allowable leverage for each trade.
Forecast Activations: Toggles to enable or disable the use of range, EMA, and Bollinger forecasts.
Date Range:Allows users to define the start and end dates for testing the strategy.
Notes:
This strategy is designed for educational purposes and requires thorough backtesting and optimization before live trading. Real-time performance may vary, and additional risk management practices are advised.
License:
This script is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0.
Description:
The Bitcoin Multi-Factor Trend Following Strategy is designed for traders seeking a robust, multi-factor approach to trend following in Bitcoin markets. This script combines technical indicators and statistical methods to identify trend directions, optimize entry and exit points, and manage position sizing based on volatility and leverage constraints. Key features of the strategy include:
Multi-Indicator Trend Forecasting:
This strategy employs three trend forecasting methods: range, exponential moving average (EMA), and Bollinger Bands. Each method can be independently enabled or disabled, giving traders flexibility in how trends are identified and followed.
Range Forecast: Calculates forecast based on the range (high and low) of recent prices, with optional smoothing via a Kalman filter to reduce noise.
EMA Spread Forecast: Utilizes the spread between fast and slow EMAs to gauge the trend’s strength, adjusted for volatility.
Bollinger Band Forecast: Measures the proximity of price to Bollinger Band levels to assess trend intensity.
Kalman Filter for Smoothing:
The Kalman filter is applied to price data for smoother trend estimation, particularly within the range forecast. This allows the strategy to reduce noise and focus on more reliable price signals.
Volatility-Adjusted Position Sizing:
The strategy incorporates volatility targeting to dynamically adjust position sizes based on current market conditions. Traders can set an annualized volatility target to control the risk level, with position size scaled accordingly to maintain consistent risk exposure. A maximum leverage cap ensures that position sizes do not exceed a user-defined threshold, offering an additional layer of risk control.
Dynamic Entry and Exit Points:
Entry and exit points are based on customizable thresholds that determine trend strength and are sensitive to market volatility. The script monitors changes in forecast values and automatically adjusts trades to capitalize on emerging trends or exit weakening ones. The strategy includes an option to close all open positions when trend forecasts fall below defined thresholds, ensuring an automated approach to risk management.
Backtesting and Performance Metrics:
To support strategy optimization, the script includes a backtest mode that calculates key performance metrics such as Sharpe Ratio, Buy & Hold profit, Strategy profit, Win rate, and other metrics. These metrics are displayed in a summary table directly on the chart, providing real-time insight into the strategy’s historical performance compared to a buy-and-hold approach.
Configurable Time and Date Range:
Users can specify start and end dates for the backtest period, allowing for focused backtesting over any desired timeframe. This feature enables in-depth analysis of performance across varying market conditions.
Use Case:
This strategy is best suited for experienced traders who wish to apply a structured trend-following approach in Bitcoin or other high-volatility assets. It is highly customizable, making it adaptable to various market conditions and trading styles. The combination of trend forecasting methods, volatility targeting, and automatic leverage control offers a balanced approach to capturing long-term trends while managing risk.
Parameters:
Entry Threshold: Adjusts the sensitivity of the entry point for trends. Lower values make the strategy more reactive.
Annual Volatility Target: Controls the risk level by targeting a specific annualized volatility percentage.
Max Leverage: Caps the allowable leverage for each trade.
Forecast Activations: Toggles to enable or disable the use of range, EMA, and Bollinger forecasts.
Date Range:Allows users to define the start and end dates for testing the strategy.
Notes:
This strategy is designed for educational purposes and requires thorough backtesting and optimization before live trading. Real-time performance may vary, and additional risk management practices are advised.
License:
This script is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0.
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