Has the bond market bottomed?
The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?"
So far, following the FOMC decision yesterday, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report (Non Farm Payroll number) tomorrow, we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or we are about ready to resume the downtrend, and yields back towards 5%. Technically, we are reaching the channel that has kept the 10yr pressured since spring of 2023. However, a break of the 50dma and channel resistance at 108'02 may be the trigger that actually squeezes the market much higher, sending yields falling at a rapid rate. We'd expect that on a "weak" jobs report and the US Dollar to fall precipitously from here. However, we must keep in mind that the headline number has come in higher than expected 7 of the last 10 reports in 2023. So, a weak NFP report is not a given!
So far, following the FOMC decision yesterday, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report (Non Farm Payroll number) tomorrow, we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or we are about ready to resume the downtrend, and yields back towards 5%. Technically, we are reaching the channel that has kept the 10yr pressured since spring of 2023. However, a break of the 50dma and channel resistance at 108'02 may be the trigger that actually squeezes the market much higher, sending yields falling at a rapid rate. We'd expect that on a "weak" jobs report and the US Dollar to fall precipitously from here. However, we must keep in mind that the headline number has come in higher than expected 7 of the last 10 reports in 2023. So, a weak NFP report is not a given!
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