Financial ETF May Be Attempting a Breakout
Financials have quietly outperformed since the summer. Are they now getting ready for a breakout?
The first pattern on today’s chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is the series of higher lows since early November. That could suggest buyers are willing to pay incrementally higher prices.
XLF has pushed against a slightly rising trendline that runs along the highs beginning in late May. This combination of overhead resistance and higher lows may create the potential for a breakout.
Next is the $30.97 level. It was a major long-term high in 2007 (before the financial crisis) and early 2020 (before the coronavirus crash). Prices tested and held this support twice last year. There was also a failed breakdown in October.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA on December 22. Is the longer-term trend getting more bullish? In the shorter term, the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also climbed above the 21-day EMA.
Finally, consider fundamentals and the macro situation. Banks have increased provisions for bad loans. They’re also fighting a deeply inverted yield curve and recession worries. What happens if some of those negatives start to lift?
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLF):
1-year: -12.42%
5-years: +22.54%
10-years: +156.95%
(As of January 31, 2023)
Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.
Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
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TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: https://www.tradestation.com/important-information.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is the series of higher lows since early November. That could suggest buyers are willing to pay incrementally higher prices.
XLF has pushed against a slightly rising trendline that runs along the highs beginning in late May. This combination of overhead resistance and higher lows may create the potential for a breakout.
Next is the $30.97 level. It was a major long-term high in 2007 (before the financial crisis) and early 2020 (before the coronavirus crash). Prices tested and held this support twice last year. There was also a failed breakdown in October.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA on December 22. Is the longer-term trend getting more bullish? In the shorter term, the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also climbed above the 21-day EMA.
Finally, consider fundamentals and the macro situation. Banks have increased provisions for bad loans. They’re also fighting a deeply inverted yield curve and recession worries. What happens if some of those negatives start to lift?
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLF):
1-year: -12.42%
5-years: +22.54%
10-years: +156.95%
(As of January 31, 2023)
Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.
Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: https://www.tradestation.com/important-information.
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