XLE...false break?

At current levels ($64), XLE seems to have have done a textbook break and retest of the downrend (purple) in place since 2014 that wold indicate a powerfull move higher is in the cards. However, the impulse move since the lows of march2020 seems complete and XLE reached its minimum target in the $66 area last week. This, plus overbought technicals (Stoch RSI) might suggest that we might be looking at a false break and XLE is about to move below the trendline again for a correction at least to the 50wk ma ($53) that has been significant in the past and potentially lower. All eyes on the FED tomorrow. A dovish tone will likely send XLE higher towards $79. on the opposite, if the FED maintains its recent hike rethoric we will be looking at the false break scenario described above.