MQP PRESENTS - SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE

31 lip 2023

HEADER - Linear regression fractals say something has to give and that something should look like this.

SUMMARY - Nothing interesting until Tuesday night after U.S. markets (NY) closes. Then we head up vertically continuously, first brake should be 2080-ish either on Friday 8/4 or Sunday 8/6. The rest should follow boxes until question marks area. It seems like 8/15 maybe too early for 2200. Or maybe not. We will see.

BOLDED ARROWS - They are date markers. Gray arrow is ADP jobs report morning of Wed 8/2. Black is NFP jobs report at the same time on 8/4. Orange is CPI same time 8/10. Red is PPI same time 8/11. Blue is Fed minutes 1PM ET Wed 8/16.

DASHED LINES - They are the trends that are in play. I might detail them later if I have time, or not.

DETAILS - See previous linked posts for how we got here. I will add notes soon.

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

NOTES 1 - Monday 7/30 12:49 AM ET.
1) I noted on Sunday that there were 14 hours of bearishness left
2) that should expire before U.S. markets open this morning in NY
3) I also noted that nothing interesting would happen until Tuesday night
4) that is still base case
5) with that said, I have enough information to chart this one
6) I don't think that the general pattern up will change much in 43-44 hours
7) if it does it will delay the move by 12-16 hours all the way down
8) and maybe - still maybe - cap the end at 2145 instead of 2200-ish

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

NOTES 2 - LRC wave periods.
1) if you read notes for Saturday and Sunday from last post...
2) I had broke down all the waves down to 72 days
3) this chart (at top) is everything from 72 days down
4) there are five bold extension lines
5) so light blue at the bottom is 72 days
6) dark gray - next one up - is 36 days
7) dark red is 18 days
8) dark blue is 9 days
9) black is 4.5 days
10) so if I used wave tracer instead of generic IRL, it would like this:

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

a) for chart above:
b) obviously there would be corrections to previous wave break downs
c) in order to "reconciliate" their positions and their turn shadow positions
d) that's just a lot of detailing that for people who like math
e) any way, there's one line that's dotted that's this line:

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

f) continuing with chart above:
g) so that's where the dark red or 18-day wave...
h) meets ITS ORIGINAL AVERAGE SLOPE prior to 7/19
i) in this "linear regression fractal)
j) this is where the top should be, mathematically speaking
k) 8/15-8/16 around 2200
l) obviously, things can and do change all the time
m) but until they do, and do significantly, and I will post when that is the case...
n) 2200 is the proportional target
o) but 2145 is the "standard deviation" target (ala bollinger bands as opposed to regressive bands)
p) handicapping regressive bands would say 2165

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

q) that's really all that's worth saying until
r) Tuesday 8/1 at 9 PM ET
s) see you then

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

t) oh yeah.... here are the micro-waves:

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

a) for chart above:
b) so this 11-min chart
c) dark gray would be 4.5 days (108 hours)
d) dark red would be 54 hours
e) dark blue would be 27 hours
f) yes, we can go ever so smaller, that's how forecast moves
g) but the smaller they get, the less rules they follow
h) it's like they quantum mechanics in a way

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

NOTES 3 - 9:08 AM ET 1966 SPIKE, 1964.xx as I type
1. again, after 14 bear hours ran out
2. it's 1 hour late
3. this has 108-, 54-, 27-, 13.5-hour waves all look kind of ugly
4. thus type of ugliness is implying micro local (with respect to these waves) volatility
5. meaning swinging in those first 2 boxes

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

6) 20 min later
7) this chart is not set to right time zone
8) good odds of hitting 1973 in 12 hours or less

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

9) 37 min later at 10:05 AM ET
10) 1970.xx from 1972.xx, a hair short of 1973
11) this spike came early and changes nothing for the short term (between now and Tues night)
12) all it really did is made 1974 and 1975 more likely to hit
13) beyond that, it's hard to see it move up one more time
14) understand that the intermediate setup - now only 15-16 days to go - is hyper bullish
15) but everything under 7 days is still is a mess
16) this strongly implies short term 2 way vol for next 30 hours

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

17) 23 min later, 10: AM ET 1966.XX
18) so all the waves that I broke down from Sunday down to 72, 36, 18, 9, 108H, 54h... and so on are from 1 ratio only
19) and it happens to be the standard ratio I've been using for a long time
20) tried 3 other ratios on 11-min bars that are equidistant from each other
21) all 3 of them are UGLY AF... so odds of 1960, maybe lower are pretty good here

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

22) what now?
23) for really bullish posture, we want to see 1965 hold here (its OK, if it swings down, it just needs to bounce and hold)
24) IF THAT HAPPENS , odds favor an attempt for 1985 before midnight

31 lip 2023

Uwaga

7/31 10:58 AM ET, END OF POST -- HERE IS CORRECTED CHART FOR TIMEZONE AND SMALLER BAR SIZE