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Wave Analysis - GOLD (Up to even 1 min)

Check full analysis by clicking the photo/link below:

1 minute in update:

Zlecenie aktywne

1 min wave analysis of the ABC correction we are having. Please click the above photo/link to see the full analysis page.

Uwaga

Corrected:

5th wave ending shortly. Get ready for buys.

Uwaga

Possible target at the 1.618 extension - 2.168 before the B-C leg begins.

Uwaga

Regardless, i believe this is a good point to enter and set up a stop loss under that wick below.

Zlecenie aktywne

I believe this is a good spot. 8 pip stop loss under that wick.
Price rejecting off that 1.618 extension. It COULD of that mini correction.

Uwaga

Clearer image if it helps ^^

Zlecenie aktywne

Price rejected off the 1.618, macds crossed aswell and ended the 5th impulse wave of this smaller BC correction inside of the bigger blue AB correction. We are now entering BC impulse.

Zlecenie aktywne

68.2% Fib + on the 200ma. Wave 2 complete. Wave 2-3 begin.

Uwaga

Sorry, slight correction with price playing out/correcting longer over time. Price now touching off the 200ma perfectly. This may be a better time to complete wave 2.

Uwaga

If price comes back down then we're looking at an ABCDE triangle instead of an ABC. You've got to be able to adapt quick to these ever changing markets. :) GEt a little tricky with the 1 minute sometimes as you need to be quick than looking at it on a longer time frame.

Uwaga

There she goes ladies and gents, as expected the strong wave 2-3.

Uwaga

wave 2-3 only travelled 1.27 fib exension which means that wave 4-5 will be an extended wave.

Zlecenie aktywne

If price drops from here, look to enter on an ABCDE triangle correction instead of this wave 3-4 being an ABC.

That's it from me guys!! I'm going to call it a night. I will post up the pattern again on the 5 or 15 minute. I'll let this play out tonight.
I have set my stops at my previous entry points (see previous posts from earlier) and have placed them into breakeven.
I don't know how far down that black A-B wave will travel. Hence i have my stops in a location which i don't believe will get stopped, more around the beginning or below the beginning of WAVE A CORRECTION (Black). Take profits if you like now :) Up to you.

Happy Trading Friends :)

Uwaga

Oh and here is the more detailed analysis i was referring to:
This link>>

Uwaga

Update on price action before i sleep: Goodnight guys! :) Please LIKE and Follow <3

Uwaga

Almost forgot! Don't get too bogged down on the 1 minute. Play the bigger chart pattern.
5minute zoomed in:

15 minute zoomed in:

Overview of pattern on a clean chart (different browser):
Okay so this looks like the E point of a triangle, where we are now.

HOWEVER, i don't believe the ABC correction pattern is complete yet, so therefore i believe the E point will end up higher up, where the trendline touches the wicks. LIke this:

Here are the ABC corrections shown:

See the pattern?

Happy Trading! Like and Follow for more Analysis :)

Uwaga

LASTLY (i promise i'll shut the PC off after this xD):
If we go on the 1 hour and move the trendline into this position:

Then it appears that this could be the position of point E for price to dope. Since it APPEARS like this, it looks like a good position for the correction A to end short and A-B to begin, which makes it APPEAR like price is beginning to drop which gets people on shorts so that the big money get onto the opposite side of those orders for a buy. Price drives up for a long impulsive move to end up where that C point correction is, and hence the new E spot. The cycle begins and once again the "herd" gets into those BUYS since they see such an impulsive move up, but yet again, the sells will occur.
Just a hunch. ;) It's a game. The herd is always a step behind.. reacting..
Goodnight guys :)

Uwaga

Then it appears that this could be the position of point E for price to (DROP ***, not dope lol) It's definitely time to sleep!
Happy Trading Friends! :D

Uwaga

Hey, i had to brush my teeth first :p
No length projections sorry. Way too tired.

Last update on the 1 minute:

Uwaga

I think i did notice is when going on the 4 hour, price has the POTENTIAL to run up to these levels here. New trendline created. Just something to keep in mind.

Uwaga

1 thing i did notice**
And shift that yellow highlight to the E point on a possible 4 hour level there.

Uwaga

1 minute: Great little entry there broken above the triangle and retested. This is in the case the price drives up higher than we anticpate (possible given the more recent scenarios i just posted)

Uwaga

Hi Guys :) Back.

Here's the latest with the wave adjusted to new price. I have taken profits, entered into a short for the wave correction of (black) A-B. I have entered on the yellow highlight (elliot waves formed here too).
Best place to place stop loss is where the dotted line is, or you can try for a tighter one above the yellow highlight which will increase your chance of getting stopped out should the subsequent blue wave A-B go up to that area.

Please like and follow <3 :D

Zlecenie aktywne

Uwaga

Tweaked the positing of wave 0-1 and 1-2 as wave 4 can't overlap the Wave 1.

Zlecenie aktywne

We might be looking at a bigger Elliot wave here in this correction. Readjusted.

Uwaga

Stop loss at the dotted line if looking to get in.
If price blasts through that means my 4-5 count for the black A correction was incorrect. Lets see what price does. here.

Uwaga

Sorry guys i was at the gym and couldn't update you. I hope i made it back just in time.
So the original 5 waves down was right, what price did and the pattern created now looks to me like an expanded flat. It could also be a running flat so let's try to count the waves and see where it could potentially end up for us to buy up for a black leg up of B-C.

Zlecenie aktywne

PROJECTIONS for the end of WAVE C.
Let's try to count the waves too.
Also for Wave C to end we need momentum divergence.

Uwaga

Minor correction: in an Expanded or Running Flat, the 5 waves down should actually be 3 corrective. We can clearly see this on the 15 minute chart. Anything smaller and it appears like a 5 wave.
When looking at it on the 15 minute chart, it makes sense, which gives me an indication that the impulsive 3 waves down has a higher probability to go down to the "Expanded Flat Wave C Projection" levels due to the nature of time which gives me intuition that price will make a bigger move than a running flat on an impulsive 5 wave down taking the 15 minute time frame into consideration.

Zlecenie aktywne

Fibonacci extension for potential Wave 2-3 Targets.

Uwaga

Wave 1-2 Retracement before drop - probable..

Uwaga

Why? Because in wave 2-3, price usually goes through another smaller cycle of 5 waves, therefore it's performed wave 0-1 and now performing 1-2. Get ready for the drop.

Uwaga

Could this be it?

Uwaga

Also, if price starts droppping here, the MACD will cross with divergence.

Zlecenie aktywne

NEW wave Analysis(Tweaked it around)
Impulsive or diagonal 5 wave going down at this point. Start counting your 0-5 waves from the highlighted point.
Lets get this guys!

Uwaga

Remember we are waiting for this to close under on the 15 min.

Uwaga

So far rejecting nicely. Lets see how the next 15 min candle goes aswell. Remmeber to wait for the closes of candles.

Uwaga

I've got to leave the house for a few hours. I will try to watch the charts when i can and post if possible.
Remember to count the 5 waves down to projected areas.

Okay i just saw that price broke above the triangle. No biggie. Form a new triangle. It's just taking more time for it to form. On the larger time frame it may appear as though price is a clear buy, people will get in on these orders and boom price drops to knock them out. Wait it out.
Form the triangle. I'll leave it to you guys :)

Uwaga

The triangle could expend to here aswell.

Uwaga

Now drop at E!

Uwaga

Zlecenie aktywne

5 wave impulse down or diagonal now.

Uwaga

Testing off the bottom side of the triangle now too.

Zlecenie aktywne

Wave 0-1 and then becareful of the 1-2 correction. It will retrace.

Zlecenie aktywne

I believe around here we shall see the wave 5 level drop. Below are the targets for the end of this wave. We want to see momentum divergence to signify the end of this wave and therefore we can look to BUY so that we can profit on the final B-C leg up! I'm on my laptop but i'm going to drive home now, be back in about 30 minutes or so.. Goodluck guys!

Uwaga

Probable Wave 2 end. Beginning Wave 2-3

Uwaga

Zlecenie aktywne

Little bit cleaner with waves.

Uwaga

And... we're due for a nose dive!

Uwaga

Final test up at resistance before DROP

Zlecenie aktywne

MACD crosssing.. Waiting for candle close. Will nose dive.

Uwaga

Put your stop loss above that E Wick.

Uwaga

10 pips stop loss.

Uwaga

From its current position.

Uwaga

Little test off the 200ma line too?

Uwaga

Next i also want to see the 15 min macd cross. Increasing volume on the bearish side.

Uwaga

Sorry ^^ 5 min macd above,

Uwaga

I believe it will drop now guys. Also continue looking at that 5 minute MACD as it begins to curve down and cross.

Uwaga

Move taking place on the 5 minute.. soon for macd to cross. No momentum/power in the upside. Downside moves to come.

Uwaga

Oh hi there :) 5 minute candle to close to confirm that macd cross.
But yea i'm certain ehre that it will drop. If you wish tighten up your stop loss above the wicks of the most recent yellow highlight.

Uwaga

Or you can continue leaving stop loss above the wick of the E point. If you did tighten your stop loss, it's okay. If we get stopped out we can re-enter again. We are trying to minimise our risk as much as we can.

Zlecenie aktywne

He's being stubborn isn't he? ABCDE, here we go. Nice big move pullback for a power move down.

Uwaga

Also want to see it reject off the 61.8% Fib. Remember guys and gals that in a 2-3 wave, price will go through it's smaller 0-5 wave sequence.

Uwaga

Guys i think buy!!!!

Uwaga

Yes BUY. Put stop loss under wick on latest Yelllow highlight

Uwaga

Analysis coming now

Uwaga

I'm sorry guys i should have payed more attention...
Okay so what happened here, i've placed where the elliot waves are.
1. Price fell into the "Running Flat Wave C Projection Box" so it did meet it's target.
2. Price made a big rejection off for a very deep and uncommon wave 4 retracement fibonacci of 61.8 - 78.6% It's common levels are 38.2 and 50%.
2. Price for the final leg came down to the same length as wave 0-1 (Red vertical line parallel to wave 4-5) I was assuming it would come down further for a deeper retracement which would cause price to go through it's extensions, but you can't assume anything in the markets. Anything can happen at any time that can change the course of price. As price wicked of wave 0-1 length, it also created momentum divergence which i didn't have my eye on! Sorry guys! It's okay.. I hope this is a learning lesson for us all.

Uwaga

Guys and gals, remember to always minimise your risk when you get the chance by tightening up your stops. Once price has moved in your chosen direction by say 15-20 pips, it’s a good idea to place stops at 1 pip profit/breakeven. If you get stopped out we can always re enter. We want to maximise these big moves. Lower your risk. In cases where price decides it’s move is finished, we can just re enter into the correct trade again.
I just left home to pick up my partner but have a look at the chart, good idea to try enter after a 1-2 wave correction here. Or enter at its current position and place stop under wave 0 if the pips allow for it in your risk management strategy.
The bigger ABC correction with that very shallow B correction can also be due to the fact that we have NFP In a couple days. Price action likes to trend during these times leading up to NFP

Uwaga

DARN NEWS. SELL!

Uwaga

I've gone with this as my mark up. Impulse wave 5 coming down now.

Uwaga

I hope this is clear for you all.
Next time i will hold onto my position from the start of Corrective A and ride it out all the way to the end of corrective C.
The B corrective is usually the area that knocks traders out. We should just minimise it's impact on us by leaving our trades to run from the start of Corrective A. AND/OR, use these experiences to grow and become stronger as a trader! To study and learn from it so you can overcome it next time like a mariner whose sailed many storms and becomes a master of the sea.
There's always another opportunity.
Let's look onto what happens next :)

Uwaga

I've entered into another short with a 9 pip stop loss above the Wave 2 wick.

Uwaga

Riding this down. News to me is a tool used to complete a section of a move for the continuation of the trend (in my experience of witnessing countless news releases)

Uwaga

If I'm wrong on this then so be it, my risk is just 9 pips. Please use strict risk management guys and only trade 1-2% MAX of total position against your capital.

Zlecenie aktywne

And it begins to drop.
tradingview.com/x/tBZkRaqL/https://www.tradingview.com/x/tBZkRaqL/

Uwaga

New Targets. I still think this is an expanded or running flat correction. However since this that wave 0-1, 1-2 looks too big to me for it to be a running flat, i believe it will be an expanded flat. Therefore we could reach the bottom extremes of that Expanded Flat (blue line) Wave C Projecton.

Uwaga

Target for wave 2-3 expecting to be at the 1.618.
Could go further who knows.
One thing i'm worried of is that it COULD be the tap off the bigger triangle
if you look at my analysis about half way through this page or so. It could just rocket down if price pierces straight through the bottom of this expanded flat projection box and straight through those major support levels underneather.. HOWEVER, i believe it's still the correction. I'll trust the process and this structure.
I believe if we look on the 4 hour, that same triangle i'm talking about (also written analysis and photo with market psychology, near the top-middle of this page) then we can see a bigger upside for this triangle and price to move further up after it's finished this BLACK LINE B correction and begun- end it's BLACK LINE C CORRECTION.

Uwaga

Lets watch this price, count the waves and watch for Momentum Divergence for a big let B-C Corrective wave.
Get those buys ready kind of soon. Let's keep that in mind but put our focus on current price action. Hope you all got in and in some profits on the downside.

Zlecenie aktywne

Rejection straight off the 1.618. Let's watch it's retracement, if it retraces here. Draw up your Fibs from Wave 2 - Wave 3.

Uwaga

Projections:

38.2% is the sweet spot for me when it comes to wave 4.
It also aligns well (the fobancci length on the right = length of wave 0-1)
as an indicator for wave 5. Coincides well into the bottom extreme of the Expanded Flat Wave C Projection. I will be closing my trade off just before it hits that price mark.
I will then wait for momentum divergence before buying in LONG.

Uwaga

I'm also cautious if price wants to break through further and not retract at 38.2. It might even break through support and travel down, If that's the case then it will be smart to hold. So lets see how price action moves here.

Zlecenie aktywne

Watching price on the 15 min, showing some signs of rejection. Just wait it out. We have news in 30 minutes. Lets see how it will be used in this move. As the Wave 4 Correction or the Wave 5 Impulse?

Uwaga

Looking good so far..

News in 6 minutes. The Severity of the news and how it will affect emotions will determine the degree of retracement.

Uwaga

Forward thinking:
1. After price retraces, we will see the drop for wave 5. It will MOST LIKELY (we talk probabilities when it comes to trades and projects etc) end up at the length of the fibonacci draw on the the right. Make sure to adjust this according to where the retracement ENDS.

2. It could break through below if wave 5 turns out to be extended, however unlikely, but still a possibility. I still believe the final B-C correction up is not complete. Ending at the targetted location (bottom exteme of the Expanded Flat Wave C Projection) is the most likely scenario. Confluence is aimed at that spot. Take your profits a little before it to ensure you get your order filled.

3. Wait and watch for MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE so that we can get in on buys for the leg up.

Zlecenie aktywne

News Release. Wait guys :) Just relax and watch. Let it do it's thing.
PS: PLACE YOUR TRADES INTO BREAKEVEN so you don't incur a loss!!

Uwaga

Still waiting.. However it wicked above the 38.2.
I have adjusted the projected fibonaci (length of 0-1) and placed the beginning in line with that wick.

WOW. Magically, that length ends at the BOTTOM of the box now. Perfect alignment. The stars have aligned lol. Most probably spot to take profits. Place your take profits if you wish.

Zlecenie aktywne

Uwaga

Do you guys see the alignment? Nice huh!

Uwaga

Closing below the 38.2% Beautiful!

Uwaga

I've set my Take Profits at 1287.40
Looking to buy it after momentum divergence and beginning a 5 wave impulse up.

Uwaga

Starting to look like a triangle before it drops for wave 5..

Uwaga

OR....possibility...

Uwaga

Forming a triangle for wave 4.

Uwaga

Lets see where it sets the D point.

Zlecenie aktywne

If it taps the trendline and rejects then it might be the spot

Uwaga

Hmm.. fake? didn't touch my trendline...

Let's redraw

Uwaga

Reaching closer:, soon to drop.
Remember:
1. Take Profit 1287.40.
2. Then we'll start looking to buy shortly after after our confluence gives us reason to.

Uwaga

The extremes of this triangle allows price to tap the 50% Fib

Uwaga

Price touching 50% Fib. Moved the projection to new wick.

Take Profit: 1287.85

Uwaga

Price testing the other side of the triangle
;) I Like!

Uwaga

Probably a tap off the outside of the triangle, testing it as resistance

Uwaga

Draw this trendline in there too. I like this one.

Uwaga

Re-testing

Uwaga

Price wants to take its time. Here comes the triangle!

Uwaga

Better yet i think the triangle will finish at the 61.8% and the 200ma area.

Uwaga

This E point marks great confluence with the 61.8% Fib and 200ma. I think "X marks the spot" with this one.
Take profit 1288.80 for a relatively safe take profit area. Ensure we secure these profits rather than trying to get an extra 5 pips. Not worth it.

Price creates a double bottom and moves up to end Corrective wave B and begin the C leg up. I do want to go to sleep really soon guys i'm super tired so i'll try to provide smaller time frame, medium time frame and longer time frame views.

Zlecenie aktywne

Hi guys i just woke up. Price has surpassed our target off 1288.80 hope you all got some profits out of it. For me personally, on my broker price felll short!!! Hence my take profit wasn't activated. I am getting in touch with the brokerage regarding this..

UPDATE: BUY if you haven't already!!! Stop loss underneath the end of wave 5.

Uwaga

Place your stop loss on the dotted line or wait for a better entry once wave 1 corrects for wave 2.
I think i should be pretty safe personally and have placed my stop loss at the dotted line and let it run due to the nature of the analysis, which i will try to make (somewhat) pretty soon. Once price has made strides into wave 2-3, i will tighten up my stop as best as i can.

Uwaga

**Guys and Gal, I will try to post a little less here so that you can see the main patterns that we are playing. Let me know if you like what i'm currently doing though with the "live updates", if so i will continue it.

Uwaga

Analysis:
Because price has been ranging in this area for a while, it is a viable option to use the 4hour chart to base our patterns from.

In my opinion, based on my larger frame analysis and where we are at, I'm looking at two options for price action:
1.
As you can see in the screenshot below, i have drawn two upper trendlines as you can see the MOST upper trendline there finish this consolidation with an expanding triangle at it's most highest extremity (see this happen too often). It makes senses as it's also not the most glaring obvious thing. I'm leaning more towards believing that this will be the pattern as i'm counting the abc waves inside the triangle/channel and i believe we still have 1 last B-C Correction leg UP.

2. ALTERNATIVELY, the black trendline drawn creates a channel which already price has rejected from and subsequently beginning to reject from again. This could be the point E of the channel/triangle for what i believe we have a final leg down (wave 5) to go near the Head&Shoulder's neckline and then bounce back. I will provide more details into that analysis in the updates below.
This option is too obvious in my opinion..
I will also post an analysis i wrote up earlier in previous "chart idea" with psychological reasons as to why i believe we will go for option 1 of the pattern rather than the more obvious option 2.

Uwaga

Looking closer on the smaller time frame:

I have been tracking and calling the analysis of this D - E correction of the triangle on a smaller time frame and i've been pretty spot on with the calls. I've been able to adapt quick to the changing market on the 1 min - 15 minute.
Full analysis of that here: www. tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/yV56vskx-Wave-Analysis-GOLD-Up-to-even-1-min/

Hence i will show you why i believe we still have 1 last B-C Correction leg up further, which depending on the strength and length of this correction up, will determine where we end up (most likely at the top extremities of the 4 hour triangle/trendline.

This has been my analysis of that correction which can be tracked moment by moment in that link/picture i sent above:
But here is a quick snap shot. Sorry for the mess :P I'd like to keep it there and not remove it for now. I can get a different browser and draw up a very simple and cleaner version of this now.

Now lets go in closer.

It seems to me that the C leg is not complete yet.. We could have that AB:BC relationship occur in terms of the length of the next leg up. It could be that the correction we are seeing now, or it could even correct down further to complete wave 2 which means price will drive up higher and do the following.. before it drops.

I'm just showing different options of what can occur. Maybe there's something i've missed. The point is that i believe that there's still room for a bit of upside there.

Uwaga

Just to add, once this Wave 5 begins. There's a high probability it could end short of the neckline. But you must be wary that price can PIERCE right through the neckline as wave 5 could extend to levels of 1.618 - 2.618.
Be careful of this.
I will most likely look to hold and trail profits strategically just incase this does happen. It will be too great of a move to miss.

Uwaga

Live update and count:

Uwaga

Bit of an extended Wave 5 here incoming. Watch out for the LEG B CORRECTION!

Uwaga

I see this big short move on the hour! Triangle forms perfectly to this new price move up for the 3rd tap and E point. Wave 4 could be complete here, and then possibly here comes wave 5 down.

Uwaga

Looking for retracements in these areas and to preferrable touch 1-2 trendlines. Underneath those triangles drawn would be nice, testing it as resistance.

Uwaga

Very possible..

Uwaga

The big money starting to come in there guys look at that volume. Last 10 seconds of that candle close turned to a wick. I don't believe it! I think it will drop.

Uwaga

Anulowano zlecenie

Double tap - DROP? I believe so.

Uwaga

Wave 5 projected to end at the red box, breaking the Head & Shoulders neckline. HOWEVER, if it does end at that point, what comes next is a sharp ABC correction (bigger wave 2) Therefore it will appear to the masses that it was a False breakout. (Dipped under the neckline and then came right up again, creating a wick on the larger time frames)
However, if price doesn't seem to reverse at this point or stop short of it but then breaks through, or just drops straight past, it's safe to say that this wave 5 will keep going further than the red box area. Might end at the 1.618 or even further.

Red line minimum distance for Head & SHoulders neckline break. HOWEVER not to say that it will happen now, price could take its time to reach there. (which i believe bigger WAVE 2-3 will get there. However before we get to wave 3, we must go through a wave 2 correction - most likely a sharp ABC retracement, which i believe is a perfect spot to show a "False neckline breakout". We will see what price does. If price breaks the neckline i will move my stops above the neckline at a good spot in case price sharply reverses.

Uwaga

Reaching projection for wave 5. Lets see if it rejects big off here. If so appearance of a false break out. Price sharply ABC corrections, everyone gets into buys, then BIG SELL OFF (WAVE 2-3)

Uwaga

I will place my stops at the dotted line when price breaks below that new red thing line i drew.

Uwaga

Yes it broke the neckline, but be careful here guys.. EVERYONE'S getting in on a short now right?
Just be careful.
As i said, possible FALSE breakout. They will use this point to get us. Watch out for the SHARP ABC. That's why i moved my stop very tihgt incase this happens, but at the same time my trade is active if price decides to continue tumbling down.

Uwaga

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