MQP PRESENTS - THE UNTHINKABLE
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HEADER - My original PIRL picked up this move a month ago scanning for regression fractals. As of RIGHT NOW, IT IS SET UP FOR IT. Volume analysis of futures GC1!, GLD etf, and 2 XAUUSD tickers by IDC and FXCM say it's possible. Since this IS SO STRANGE, this isn't a forecast, it is just, "JUST IN CASE THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENS".
SUMMARY - It's one of those crazy things that a normal healthy person would ignore. That is to say I admit to being particular. I will say it this way, the indicators overall DO SUGGEST THIS IN THE WAY THAT I CAN'T DISPROVE (meaning I have to look for it and check the math, not "spontaneous discovery". That said, this move IS a reasonable outcome of our current set up in both price and volume even though it belongs in "the unthinkable" group. I am only posting this "FOR THE RECORD".
DETAILS - This move should complete by 10 AM, JAN 4TH. That is counting the holiday on Monday. I do not plan on adding anything to this because of the obvious.
SUMMARY - It's one of those crazy things that a normal healthy person would ignore. That is to say I admit to being particular. I will say it this way, the indicators overall DO SUGGEST THIS IN THE WAY THAT I CAN'T DISPROVE (meaning I have to look for it and check the math, not "spontaneous discovery". That said, this move IS a reasonable outcome of our current set up in both price and volume even though it belongs in "the unthinkable" group. I am only posting this "FOR THE RECORD".
DETAILS - This move should complete by 10 AM, JAN 4TH. That is counting the holiday on Monday. I do not plan on adding anything to this because of the obvious.
Uwaga
NOTES 1) DOUBLE CHECKED THE MATH, IT'S REASONABLEa) for this to work 1840 MUST GET HIT BY 2 AM, FRIDAY 12/30
b) AND 1883 gets hit before NEW YORK CLOSES MARKETS FOR 2022 (Friday afternoon)
Uwaga
NOTES 2) IN THE CRAZY EVENT THAT THIS POPS TO 1840 AN HOUR AFTER MIDNIGHT....a) there's no super detailing this move, it's to 1940 by Wed January 4th
b) the fractals show low 2-way vol on the spike, so that means....
c) I don't know if we get more than 40-pt swings in between
d) there should be 1 for 30-40 Friday afternoon to Monday open
3) and 1 for about 30 overnight Tuesday to Wednesday
Uwaga
NOTES 3) LEVELS TO WATCH FORIF THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENS:a) 1818, 1825 an 1835 if the gold gods decide so some time in the PM today
b) it's 9:40 AM ET, I have a day job to go to, but I'll comment on volume if I have time
c) if I don't or if, in the words of T.S. Elliott, this gold move ends in "not in a bang, but with a whimper", that's a wrap for 2022 for me
d) and it may be a wrap for my this 7 year fantasy too
e) have a good weekend, and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
f) I wish the New Year bring you the fortune you are searching for
Uwaga
NOTES 4) FIRST LEVEL HIT (1818)a) on IDC XAUUSD ticker at 10:09 AM ET
b) 1825 is definitely a maybe, hehe....
c) I gotta clean up and get to work
d) good luck to my readers
Uwaga
12:09 PM 1609, WE NEED 1819 HERE SOON1) the issue is WHEN and we need it to be now
2) so on the next 45 min
3) if we don't, odds of move reduce drastically
Uwaga
4) typo 1609? I mean 1816 that decondUwaga
12:48 PM, 1818 WE REALLY NEED A NEW DAILY HIGH HERE1) 1824-25 NEED IT BADLY
2) why? Don't we have to 2am to put in 1843?
3) yeah, but this part of the curve IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL
4) prices spend most of the time going sideways
5) if it gives up opportunity here and bears swing down hard, it's almost impossible to re build the setup
Uwaga
6) what usually happens? 7) what has basically happened for 6 weeks, swing city
Uwaga
4:12 PM ET COULD BE BETTER LAST 3 HOURS.1) the setup is still in place
2) but next 10 hours decisived, or more like 8 hours 45 min
3) we need 1835-1840 by 1 AM ET FRI
4) setup is doable, we need follow through
Uwaga
6.13 PM ET, 1808 TO 1814, BOUT TO GO STRAIGHT TO 1830 SOONUwaga
8:50 PM ET, NEXT 6 HOURS CRITICAL1) I see a breakout and run to 1830s, maybe 1840s in 4-5 hours
2) this is the last "difficult" part for this move, the area from 1818 to 1826
3) if I have to stay up second night in a row, I will to track it through
4) if I crash, I will posts notes before I sleep
5) otherwise, I have total conviction in this move until I state otherwise
Uwaga
9:02 PM ET, NEXT 200 minutes DECIDES EVERYTHING 1) from now until 12:20 AM FRIDAY
2) if you can, pay attention for this time
3) you'll see the bigger picture soon
Uwaga
4) I'll discuss TP levels later, need to see a big break up first5) you can decide for yourself based on your risk tolerance
6) personally I have strong conviction for 1860 before rebalancing
Uwaga
11:01 PM ET - GETTING ANNOYING. FIRST CONSIDER: Uwaga
FOR CHART ABOVE:1) that's what I see for now to Friday close
2) BUT WE HAVE TO HAVE A MOVE UP SOON
3) by soon I mean 2 hours so by 1 AM ET
4) beyond that, odds begin favoring "SIDEWAYS TO NO WHERE AGAIN"
5) if no move by 2 AM ET, I may close it out
Uwaga
6) as of right now, from 4-min bar chart, it says...7) spike should be between 12:45 and 1:30 AM ET
8) so we have to have evidence by 1:00 AM
9) why does an hour or two matter so much?
10) for whatever reasons, if price does not follow through at these spots..
11) something very different usually happens right after
Uwaga
Uwaga
TYPO IN CHART ABOVE, MIDNIGHT TO 2AM, NOT 1AM.Uwaga
12:55 AM ET, 1819 AGAIN.1) has to be now
2) the shortest curves are forming bearish reversal
3) a long stall usually induce 1% rug pull and setup would be ruined
4) I will watch for another hour and then put in hard stops and sleep
Uwaga
2:23 AM FINALLY BROKE 1820. That was too hard.1) regressions say that the hard work is over
2) friday morning should feature 1835-1840
3) friday afternoon 1860-1880 (I am leaning higher than 1870 bc I have legit reasons)
4) so tomorrow should look like this:
Uwaga
Uwaga
HOWEVER, FOR CHART ABOVE:5) continuing from above, this move HAS A VERY PARTICULAR SETUP THAT IS NOT SEEN ALOT
6) USUALLY, the 5 short sets in this setup break through ONE BY ONE, and it takes roughly 80 hours for it to break through
7) AND USUALLY DOES SO SMOOTHLY
8) that's not what we have here, we have ALL OF THEM BREAKING THROUGH TOMORROW
9) so my guess is sometime during Friday, we will see 1870-1880
10) if for some reason we get 1870 PRIOR TO 10 AM, then we CAN GET THE ENTIRE MOVE OVER 80 hours to spread over 36
11) meaning the entire move to January 4th would just finish tomorrow by close
12) that's not likely, but it's a real possibility
Uwaga
14) continuing, there is one more thing that needs to happen15) there's one set of cross overs that won't finish until 4 AM ET, another 90 minutes from now
16) until that happens cleanly, there is still danger of a reversal
17) I am going to bed, goodnight
Uwaga
18) before I go, this check down happening right now at 2:34 AM ET...19) floor is 1816-ish
20) it's a strong buy with 1814 STOP LOSS
Uwaga
2:45 AM ET, just tagged 1816.21) STRONG BUY HERE
2) STOP LOSS 1814.75
Uwaga
3) the setup is swing all the way back upUwaga
9.25 AM ET, THERES A PROBLEM WITH WEEKLY TRADERS1) so regressions from 10 TO 15 DAYS is the problem with this
2) this is why 1820 refuses to give
3) so what then:
A) these will finish twisting by noon of Jan 4th
B) so target of 1920 on the table but will take a few days longer
Uwaga
C) stay long to next Friday, we will get to 1920Uwaga
THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE IS SCALPING #2:
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