Gold update CPI 14.02
Gold probably will consolidate around central pivot before CPI. Price may go up a bit, pricing in that CPI will show lower inflation, because these are the expectations.
Macroeconomics
Last few months CPI data showed that inflation went down significantly and the this gave some peace to the FED with the Interest rates, although they always said that probably will need to increase the rates further.
Last NFP showed much better than expected data, which is showing us that labor market is incredibly strong.
Based on the strong labor market and the fact that CPI showed lower inflation last few times I speculate that this time CPI will show higher inflation or same as previous month.
So the expectations are that inflation will go down and if CPI show surprise data, Gold will decline.
1) CPI - lower inflation as forecasted - gold will go up
2) CPI - higher inflation or the same - gold will go down
CPI
On this chart we can see how Gold reacted to the previous reading.
Technicals
Gold is under heavy bearish manipulation.
Two days ago price formed doji and had a chance to reverse at least for a while, instead Gold dropped further. In my opinion the "reversal pattern" failed.
I am still expecting 1840-1845 area to be met, before some bullish moves. It is a strong area - 50% of an order block and cluster of pivot points.
Yields
Yields are going up and I think they have more room for a bullish moves.
GDX
Based on this chart I think that Gold will go down further.
Gold vs Silver
Based on this chart, my opinion is that Gold should go down if not will close as doji day.
Macroeconomics
Last few months CPI data showed that inflation went down significantly and the this gave some peace to the FED with the Interest rates, although they always said that probably will need to increase the rates further.
Last NFP showed much better than expected data, which is showing us that labor market is incredibly strong.
Based on the strong labor market and the fact that CPI showed lower inflation last few times I speculate that this time CPI will show higher inflation or same as previous month.
So the expectations are that inflation will go down and if CPI show surprise data, Gold will decline.
1) CPI - lower inflation as forecasted - gold will go up
2) CPI - higher inflation or the same - gold will go down
CPI
On this chart we can see how Gold reacted to the previous reading.
Technicals
Gold is under heavy bearish manipulation.
Two days ago price formed doji and had a chance to reverse at least for a while, instead Gold dropped further. In my opinion the "reversal pattern" failed.
I am still expecting 1840-1845 area to be met, before some bullish moves. It is a strong area - 50% of an order block and cluster of pivot points.
Yields
Yields are going up and I think they have more room for a bullish moves.
GDX
Based on this chart I think that Gold will go down further.
Gold vs Silver
Based on this chart, my opinion is that Gold should go down if not will close as doji day.
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