MQP PRESENTS - GOLD 8 YEAR BEAR PART 1

27 cze 2023

HEADER - U.S. COVID-19 excess deaths shifted the 2020-2023 demographics curve for 40-45 year old population (as well as everyone older) while Jerome Powell deftly avoided FED mistake of 1970's. This macro situation is happening with regressions indicating next move to 1840 will happen by mid July and 1750 by mid October.

SUMMARY - Move to 1840 by mid-July should eliminate bull outcome. Move to 1750 in September-October window will mark the start of 8-year gold bear market to end in 2031.

DETAILS - I expect first 8 bear boxes to hit. If and when it does, we will continue from there.

2 lip 2023

Uwaga

NOTES 1 - BULL OUTCOME

2 lip 2023

Uwaga

a) for chart above:
b) I HAVE done work on that outcome
c) God knows I have spent 7+years trying to find route up
d) this time I have enough conviction in my understanding of fundamentals to say bear outcome is going to happen

2 lip 2023

Uwaga

e) for both gold and silver
f) I the meantime there's also this:

2 lip 2023

Uwaga

6 lip 2023

Uwaga

7/05, 11:51 PM UPDATE

1) for chart above:
2) it looks like price is setting up for that box
3) but current odds on 9-, 18-, and 36-day regressive trend say lower low still favored
4) however, floor for July is now 1854 and slowly climbing
5) ceiling is 1973 and very slowly falling

6 lip 2023

Uwaga

6) meanwhile, my diligence in fundamentals has progressed while its value has regressed
7) that means that I reached a higher grasp of fundamentals
8) but that higher understanding has placed he coming September decision in gold markets FIRMLY IN A GRAY AREA
9) my intuition (which has had a dismal record in these spots), say bear still favored
10) trend engines overall still firmly in bull camp

6 lip 2023

Uwaga

11) so all this implies nothing meaningful likely until after Jackson Hole, so late August

10 lip 2023

Uwaga

SUNDAY JULY 9TH, 11:07 PM ET, 1924.xx
1) everything under 48 days is forming a vertical spike up to 1968-ish
2) when?
3) today, Monday, Tuesday
4) maybe even Wednesday
5) CPI and PPI are due this week 8:30 AM ET Wed & Thurs respectively
6) what does this all mean?
7) I really don't know
8) we are PAST the point of spiking down
9) why we are not at 1970 yet is very strange

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

TUESDAY JULY 11TH, BINARY MAPPING
1) the lack of strong bullish price action up to this point (defined as 1965-1975 by now...
2) is just a bit strange considering what long and medium term prices suggest
3) so in order to have some clarity, here is an almost completed binary map

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

4. so what now?
5. nothing worth trading until September
6. see where the red hilight zone end Sep-Oct window?
7. the reason this binary map is not completed...
8. is bc the spike up in theory should hit 2140
9. the bull route looks really aggressive
10. should know more by late August

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

JULY 11TH, BINARY MAPPING BULL UPDATE:

a) for chart above
b) it should be like that

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

c) continuing...
d) so bull route says 2080 BEFORE JACKSON HOLE IN LATE AUGUST

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

JULY 11TH, COILING MOMENTUM BULL SCENARIO

a) for chart above:
b) on the short time frames within 4-5 days out, this is THE TECHNICAL FAVORITE

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

c) if we consider only a week out, so by end of next Monday, the favorite would be a vertical to 2040-2050
d) this would have to start by Wed or Thurs, finishing Friday if early or Monday if late
e) this implies that the reason we're not at 1970 now, is bc price wants higher BUT A BIT LATER

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

f) to sum this up, it's 7/11 2PM ET, we are 1932
g) a minor inflection point is in the forecast the next 6 days
h) if gold intends to maintain bull position, we should be 2045 by end of next Monday, 7/17
i) if gold intends to break down, we should be 1870 by end of next Tuesday 7/18
j) nothing else until then

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

k) except for this:

l) for chart above, there's what that looks like on 45 min bars

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

JULY 11TH, 4:00 PM ET, looks like the bear is dead. Here is next week's price action:

11 lip 2023

Uwaga

a) for chart above:
b) that's the favorite for ALL TRENDS COMBINED, especially next 5 days
c) meanwhile, our bear route is dead but not buried yet
d) so this post has ended