Analysis of gold market trend next Monday:

6 dni temu

On Friday (January 10), after the US non-farm report, spot gold once fell sharply to around $2,663/ounce, and then the gold price suddenly soared, reaching a high of nearly $2,698/ounce. The non-agricultural report released on Friday showed that 256,000 new jobs were created in December last year, much higher than the expected 160,000, and the largest increase in nine months; the unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, also lower than 4.2 % predicted value. After the non-farm data was released, the gold price once fell sharply to $2,663.73/ounce. But then the gold price rebounded rapidly, reaching a high of $2,697.98/ounce. As of the close of Friday, spot gold rose by $19.94, or 0.74%, to $2,689.71/ounce. Gold remained strong despite the much stronger-than-expected employment report. One of the factors supporting gold is the uncertainty before the inauguration of the US president. US President-elect Trump will take office on January 20, and investors are concerned about his proposed policy of imposing tariffs on a large number of imported products. I think the reason why gold prices rebounded after falling on Friday is that although the US non-farm payrolls data was stronger than expected, reducing the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, the uncertainty caused by the upcoming Trump administration policies has increased the safe-haven appeal of gold.

​At the beginning of next week, investors will pay close attention to China's December trade account data. The significant increase in China's trade surplus may support gold prices during the Asian trading session next Monday. Next Wednesday, U.S. inflation data for December may trigger the next big move in gold. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in December, but the core CPI will fall by 0.1% during the same period. If the core CPI reaches a positive value, the immediate reaction of the market may boost the US dollar and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data may make it difficult for the US dollar to find demand and help gold hold its ground. During next Friday's Asian trading session, China's fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data may influence gold trends. Analysts expect China's fourth-quarter GDP annual growth rate to reach 5.1%, higher than the third-quarter growth rate of 4.6%. A positive surprise could help gold prices higher, while disappointing GDP data could weigh on them. Market participants will also be keeping a close eye on new developments surrounding Trump's tariff strategy. While gold has been benefiting from risk aversion, a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields could limit gains. Gold prices held up despite a much stronger-than-expected jobs report… One of the factors supporting gold prices is the uncertainty that has emerged in the run-up to the U.S. presidential inauguration. As President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration approaches, investors are concerned about his promise to impose tariffs on a wide range of imports, fearing that the move could fuel inflation and further limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. While gold is seen as a safeguard against inflation, high interest rates have undermined its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Technical analysis of gold: The non-agricultural data on Friday was very bearish, but the trend was beyond the market's expectations. Although there was a pullback, it eventually formed a bottoming out and rebound situation. This may be because the bulls are still strong, and the short-selling impact of the non-agricultural data was just a short-term wash. It began to pull back after reaching the lowest point near 2664, and stopped after reaching the highest point near 2697, closing at 2690. The daily line closed in the form of a positive line again, forming a strong four-day positive line, and the weekly line also closed with a big positive line. The overall trend is still strong, and the upper pressure is at the integer level of 2700. This position may still be broken next week, but the key suppression point and watershed remain near 2710. Once this position is broken, the upward momentum of the bulls may explode again, but there is also the possibility of a reversal next week. Since the pullback from 2583, the amplitude has reached about 110 US dollars, and the support below is first of all the 2680 line. If it is still in For bulls, this position may form a certain support effect, and it is also the first position to be digested. So we still need to maintain the bullish thinking for gold next Monday. For example, we can go long at 2680 first. If the European session continues to retreat, the support needs to be adjusted to 2665 to continue to look long.

From the four-hour level, after breaking through 2665 US dollars, gold has accelerated its rise, and the highest point has reached around 2697. According to the extension line, it can be inferred that the resistance level is around 2727, and the lower support level has moved up to around 2680 US dollars. The 1-hour moving average of gold is still a golden cross and the bulls are arranged upward. However, the daily support is around 2670. If the market fluctuates and touches here, you can try to go long. Traders must manage their positions reasonably, with the target around 2700-2710; if it reaches around 2710 and does not break, you can try to short sell and continue to go long after falling back. The trend is relatively clear and does not require too much analysis.

Taken together, in terms of short-term gold operation ideas next Monday, our team recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 2710-2720 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 2670-2677 first-line support. It is recommended to go long next Monday when gold is close to 2670. If the gold Asian market strengthens, you can first light your position and try to buy long near 2682.

6 dni temu

Zlecenie aktywne

The December non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and Wall Street banks have cut their bets on rate cuts.
1. Wells Fargo: The Fed is increasingly unlikely to cut interest rates in March.
2. Citibank: The Federal Reserve is expected to make its next interest rate cut in May, previously expected to be in January.
3. JPMorgan Chase: Given the latest non-farm payrolls data (strong), the Fed is expected to make its next interest rate cut in June, compared with the previous forecast of March.
4. Bank of America: The interest rate cutting cycle may have ended; the basic assumption is that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for a long time, but the risk of the next move is towards raising interest rates.
5. Goldman Sachs Group: Lowered the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this year from 75 basis points to 50 basis points; the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and December respectively.
6. Morgan Stanley: The non-farm payrolls report should reduce the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near future; due to a more favorable inflation outlook, a rate cut in March is still more likely.

5 dni temu

Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel

1. The Bank of Japan is reported to be considering raising its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025.
2. Trump's "hush money" case was pronounced: 34 counts were found guilty and no punishment will be imposed.
3. The United States announced a new round of sanctions on the Russian economy, increasing pressure on Russia through comprehensive energy sanctions, and oil prices closed higher on Friday.
4. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in December exceeded expectations significantly, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Traders no longer bet on the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year.
5. Fed-Musalem: It is recommended to be more cautious in lowering interest rates. Goolsbee: Still, we should not pay too much attention to a single employment report. If economic conditions are stable, inflation is not rising, and full employment is achieved, then interest rates should fall.