24.12.30 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Zaktualizowano
Hello traders,
[2024.12.30 Monday Logic Analysis + Opportunity Analysis]
This week is the New Year's week, defined as "the last quiet week," as the Non-Farm Payroll data release has been moved to the second Friday of January, so there won't be any significant data releases affecting the market this week.
It's worth noting that after Yellen's speech, market attention has gradually shifted to the U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling issue. Yellen mentioned: "The Treasury expects to reach the new debt ceiling between January 14 and January 23, at which point the Treasury will need to begin taking extraordinary measures."
The TGA (Treasury General Account) is the U.S. Treasury's main operating account at the Federal Reserve, used to manage government revenues and expenditures, including tax revenues, debt issuance proceeds, and federal government payments (such as Social Security and Medicare). TGA account management has significant implications for monetary policy as it directly affects market liquidity levels.
Impact of TGA balance changes:
Balance increase: Withdraws liquidity from the market
Balance decrease: Releases liquidity to the market
Yellen's speech implications and potential impacts can be understood as follows:
1. Yellen's speech suggests that liquidity in the first quarter of 2025 will become very "complicated." She is also leaving an "empty TGA account" for the incoming Treasury Secretary Bessette.
2. Current TGA Account Status
According to the bill passed by Congress in June 2023, the debt ceiling has been suspended until early 2025. Starting January 2, the U.S. government will not be allowed to take on new debt. Currently, the TGA account balance is approximately $735 billion, close to the policy minimum requirement of $700-800 billion. This means the market realizes there is no "balance" left to flow out of the TGA account.
3. U.S. Government Temporary Spending Bill
Recently, both parties in Congress reached a $340 billion temporary spending bill. Yellen indicated that funds from this temporary spending bill will be used to continue government operations. Note that this bill expires on March 24.
4. The U.S. individual tax filing season starts from mid-April to mid-June, when self-employed individuals, freelancers, and those with investment income need to pay taxes. This means TGA account liquidity replenishment won't occur until mid-April at the earliest.
Yellen's operation is actually a rather clever "political legacy":
- Reaching debt ceiling in mid-January
- Temporary spending bill expires March 24
- Tax filing season starts mid-April
This timing creates a "liquidity vacuum period" coinciding with the critical early period of the Trump administration. Therefore,
1. On the surface, it appears as normal fiscal operations
2. In reality, it presents a thorny "opening challenge" for Trump's new government.
This arrangement can be seen as a form of "institutionalized political contest," using legal fiscal operations to pressure the next administration.
Potential Impact of Tight Liquidity on Gold Commodities
1. Increased Safe-Haven Demand
- Tight liquidity may trigger market volatility
- Political uncertainty increases (new government and debt ceiling issues)
- Investors may increase gold allocation demands
2. Dollar Trends
- Tight liquidity may lead to rising USD liquidity premium
- But if Fed forced to take countermeasures, could weaken dollar
- Dollar weakness typically supports gold prices
Therefore, the fundamentals for commodity price increases are appearing again in the opening season of 2025.
[Gold]
Last Friday's internal reminder:
[On Friday, after the Christmas holiday, gold on the daily chart showed effective bullish signals at support position 2, continuing with small bullish candlesticks, currently approaching the FIBO 382 position. Recommend previous short positions exit and wait. Gold is likely to consolidate near FIBO 382 before moving higher again.
Short-term bullish targets are:
TP1: 2672 fibo 618 retracement level
TP2: 2696 fibo 786 retracement level
TP3: 2710 fibo 886 retracement level]
During U.S. trading hours last Friday, gold experienced a pullback. However, during Monday's Asian early session opening, gold reversed and showed an upward trend, currently still operating within resistance zone 1's pressure area.
The short-term bullish plan for gold remains unchanged, just requiring patience in waiting for new entry opportunities.
Targets remain:
TP1: 2672 fibo 618 retracement level
TP2: 2696 fibo 786 retracement level
TP3: 2710 fibo 886 retracement level
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
[2024.12.30 Monday Logic Analysis + Opportunity Analysis]
This week is the New Year's week, defined as "the last quiet week," as the Non-Farm Payroll data release has been moved to the second Friday of January, so there won't be any significant data releases affecting the market this week.
It's worth noting that after Yellen's speech, market attention has gradually shifted to the U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling issue. Yellen mentioned: "The Treasury expects to reach the new debt ceiling between January 14 and January 23, at which point the Treasury will need to begin taking extraordinary measures."
The TGA (Treasury General Account) is the U.S. Treasury's main operating account at the Federal Reserve, used to manage government revenues and expenditures, including tax revenues, debt issuance proceeds, and federal government payments (such as Social Security and Medicare). TGA account management has significant implications for monetary policy as it directly affects market liquidity levels.
Impact of TGA balance changes:
Balance increase: Withdraws liquidity from the market
Balance decrease: Releases liquidity to the market
Yellen's speech implications and potential impacts can be understood as follows:
1. Yellen's speech suggests that liquidity in the first quarter of 2025 will become very "complicated." She is also leaving an "empty TGA account" for the incoming Treasury Secretary Bessette.
2. Current TGA Account Status
According to the bill passed by Congress in June 2023, the debt ceiling has been suspended until early 2025. Starting January 2, the U.S. government will not be allowed to take on new debt. Currently, the TGA account balance is approximately $735 billion, close to the policy minimum requirement of $700-800 billion. This means the market realizes there is no "balance" left to flow out of the TGA account.
3. U.S. Government Temporary Spending Bill
Recently, both parties in Congress reached a $340 billion temporary spending bill. Yellen indicated that funds from this temporary spending bill will be used to continue government operations. Note that this bill expires on March 24.
4. The U.S. individual tax filing season starts from mid-April to mid-June, when self-employed individuals, freelancers, and those with investment income need to pay taxes. This means TGA account liquidity replenishment won't occur until mid-April at the earliest.
Yellen's operation is actually a rather clever "political legacy":
- Reaching debt ceiling in mid-January
- Temporary spending bill expires March 24
- Tax filing season starts mid-April
This timing creates a "liquidity vacuum period" coinciding with the critical early period of the Trump administration. Therefore,
1. On the surface, it appears as normal fiscal operations
2. In reality, it presents a thorny "opening challenge" for Trump's new government.
This arrangement can be seen as a form of "institutionalized political contest," using legal fiscal operations to pressure the next administration.
Potential Impact of Tight Liquidity on Gold Commodities
1. Increased Safe-Haven Demand
- Tight liquidity may trigger market volatility
- Political uncertainty increases (new government and debt ceiling issues)
- Investors may increase gold allocation demands
2. Dollar Trends
- Tight liquidity may lead to rising USD liquidity premium
- But if Fed forced to take countermeasures, could weaken dollar
- Dollar weakness typically supports gold prices
Therefore, the fundamentals for commodity price increases are appearing again in the opening season of 2025.
[Gold]
Last Friday's internal reminder:
[On Friday, after the Christmas holiday, gold on the daily chart showed effective bullish signals at support position 2, continuing with small bullish candlesticks, currently approaching the FIBO 382 position. Recommend previous short positions exit and wait. Gold is likely to consolidate near FIBO 382 before moving higher again.
Short-term bullish targets are:
TP1: 2672 fibo 618 retracement level
TP2: 2696 fibo 786 retracement level
TP3: 2710 fibo 886 retracement level]
During U.S. trading hours last Friday, gold experienced a pullback. However, during Monday's Asian early session opening, gold reversed and showed an upward trend, currently still operating within resistance zone 1's pressure area.
The short-term bullish plan for gold remains unchanged, just requiring patience in waiting for new entry opportunities.
Targets remain:
TP1: 2672 fibo 618 retracement level
TP2: 2696 fibo 786 retracement level
TP3: 2710 fibo 886 retracement level
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
Zlecenie aktywne
Running a bullish bowl and rising up in the first trading day of 2025.
Course and daily analysis sent via email, to sub via web:
signalsofswingtrading.com
Wechat: ziyuvera
Tele: t.me/VeraFuntrader
signalsofswingtrading.com
Wechat: ziyuvera
Tele: t.me/VeraFuntrader
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