PRS BREAK: IF HELL IS FREEZING OVER...

28 sie 2020

I HAD TO SAY IT, DIDN'T I? WELL, IF IS FREEZING OVER, IT'S GONNA TO DO IT THIS WAY.

Notes:

Right thissecond honestly, it's 50-50 if it's this or it's 1670. EVERY TIME it sold off, it got bought aggressively. I did not want to see price hit 1970's twice back to back days, especially when it got hammered down to 1905 yesterday. Micro time frame was really weak last night so the last I expected waking up is 1965 again. Trading is reactive, so the second reaction is important, but the 'third reaction will seal the deal:

1) For bearish route to be heavily favored again, bears need to slam it down under 1900, preferably today. If not by Monday, the window is wide open for a move up. Why? Because the regressions for 25-day to 30-day periods start all curving up while 60-day to 80-day regressions are still roughly bullish. What does that mean? No just a retest of the recent high but 2 retests of recent high in the next 2 months, meaning there's not enough momentum to break aggressively higher in a short time, it has to be gradual. The only scenario I can think of is a test of 2400 by January.

Why would we not double top and crash like 2011? Anything is possible, this is much less probable from price regression perspective because timing is different. The more gradual second top allow a "reset" of regression curves that starts fresh all over again once a period of time has passed. Today's close is critical for daily, weekly, and monthly bars. Bears really need a sub 1930 close. I really did not believe after the smack down yesterday that bulls would push again immediately TODAY. Since they did again, the message needs to be taken seriously. Bears need to regain control.

2) For this route to be favored, bulls have 3-4 days to make something happen. While it's true that just going sideways from 1965 is bullish, hesitation is a sign of weakness. My opinion here is a check down on Monday around 1940. Bears hold this level and close Tuesday above 1970, then a test of 2050 is undeniable, not necessarily new all time highs the first move up.

What really made me come to this conclusion are these 2 charts I will post next. Have a good week.

28 sie 2020

Uwaga

>>Can't make them bc tradingview doesn't have history back that far, but I'll describe quickly:

From 1971 to 1980 gold moved from 30s to almost 200, correct to 100, and then moved to 249 before crashing 25% prior to moving to 800s.

From 2002 to today gold moved from 300s to 1920 (2011) correct to 1050, and then moved to 2075. This move is time-wised is 2.4x the move from 1971 to 1978, while price is almost 10x.

While not all moves are comparable, this implies that a break out here would target somewhere between 2340 and 2440. At this point there is not enough momentum in the curves to expect gold to do this in less than 5 months, maybe a bit over 5 months. So regression curve do say if this were to happen it would top in January prior to retesting 1820.

28 sie 2020

Uwaga

28 sie 2020

Uwaga

In case you are wondering what the end to such a move would look like, that's the chart above. Roughly 6-7 weeks after the high. The R/R for a short in January for this scenario is unbelievable.

28 sie 2020

Uwaga

28 sie 2020

Uwaga

Chart above shows:

1) Break of triangle, you can read has giant bull flag if you are into that.
2) Purple wave turning up from below.
3) Orange curve going flat (meaning not resistancce.
4) Volume black wave "may" break up and lead volume purple wave that is declining.

All the volume still above h-line. So? Retest high sure it can. But volume says long term buyers (orange and purple volume waves) are exiting slowly. First move to the high will get shot down the same speed as the the crash to 1862. So if it does do this, be extremely careful above 2030.