Analysis of gold price trend on Thursday
Zaktualizowano
Gold fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Thursday, currently around 2358. Gold prices rose by more than 1% on Wednesday, hitting a nearly two-week high of 2364 during the session, as recent US data showed a weak labor market, the Fed's meeting minutes were dovish, the market's bets on the Fed's September rate cut increased, and the US dollar index fell sharply to a nearly three-week low.
In addition, the situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and the resulting safe-haven buying has pushed gold higher. Another report showed that the US service industry shrank last month, which also put pressure on the US dollar and benefited the gold price trend. The US ISM non-manufacturing index fell sharply to 48.8 in June, the lowest level since May 2020, indicating a contraction in the service industry. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 74%.
This trading day is the US Independence Day holiday, the US market is closed, and the US economic data has been released in advance on Wednesday, and market trading volume may be limited. Investors now look forward to the NFP employment report released on Friday to further clarify the path of US interest rate cuts.
[Technical side]
It is not surprising that the center of gravity of the gold bottom consolidation range moves up to accumulate bullish momentum. Yesterday, we thought that the range divergence would continue to be maintained, but the price directly broke the expectation a little. The daily K line directly rose unilaterally and ended strongly at a high level. The price will continue to challenge the upper resistance. The bulls of large and small cycles are all in the same direction.
Gold broke through the box and oscillated in 1 hour. Gold did not fall back quickly after the breakthrough. Gold has stabilized above the box. The decline of gold is an opportunity to go long. Gold fell back to the 2353 line in the US market last night to form support. Gold fell back to the 2353 support in the early trading and stabilized, so you can continue to go long.
Asian trading strategy:
Short-term gold 2350-2353 long, stop loss 2342, target 2370-2380;
Short-term gold 2378-2380 short, stop loss 2389, target 2350-2360;
Note: The above strategy was updated on July 4. This strategy is an Asian trading strategy, please pay attention to the validity period of the strategy. NY time strategy is waiting for update
In addition, the situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and the resulting safe-haven buying has pushed gold higher. Another report showed that the US service industry shrank last month, which also put pressure on the US dollar and benefited the gold price trend. The US ISM non-manufacturing index fell sharply to 48.8 in June, the lowest level since May 2020, indicating a contraction in the service industry. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 74%.
This trading day is the US Independence Day holiday, the US market is closed, and the US economic data has been released in advance on Wednesday, and market trading volume may be limited. Investors now look forward to the NFP employment report released on Friday to further clarify the path of US interest rate cuts.
[Technical side]
It is not surprising that the center of gravity of the gold bottom consolidation range moves up to accumulate bullish momentum. Yesterday, we thought that the range divergence would continue to be maintained, but the price directly broke the expectation a little. The daily K line directly rose unilaterally and ended strongly at a high level. The price will continue to challenge the upper resistance. The bulls of large and small cycles are all in the same direction.
Gold broke through the box and oscillated in 1 hour. Gold did not fall back quickly after the breakthrough. Gold has stabilized above the box. The decline of gold is an opportunity to go long. Gold fell back to the 2353 line in the US market last night to form support. Gold fell back to the 2353 support in the early trading and stabilized, so you can continue to go long.
Asian trading strategy:
Short-term gold 2350-2353 long, stop loss 2342, target 2370-2380;
Short-term gold 2378-2380 short, stop loss 2389, target 2350-2360;
Note: The above strategy was updated on July 4. This strategy is an Asian trading strategy, please pay attention to the validity period of the strategy. NY time strategy is waiting for update
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