Złoto / Dolar USAZaktualizowano Elliot Waves & FULL Analysis - GOLD (NEXT MOVES)
Analysis:
Because price has been ranging in this area for a while, it is a viable option to use the 4hour chart to base our patterns from.
- In my opinion, based on my larger frame analysis and where we are at, I'm looking at two options for price action:
1. As you can see in the screenshot below, i have drawn two upper trendlines as you can see the MOST upper trendline there finish this consolidation with an expanding triangle at it's most highest extremity (see this happen too often). It makes senses as it's also not the most glaring obvious thing. I'm leaning more towards believing that this will be the pattern as i'm counting the abc waves inside the triangle/channel and i believe we still have 1 last B-C Correction leg UP.
2. ALTERNATIVELY, the black trendline drawn creates a channel which already price has rejected from and subsequently beginning to reject from again. This could be the point E of the channel/triangle for what i believe we have a final leg down (wave 5) to go near the Head&Shoulder's neckline and then bounce back. I will provide more details into that analysis in the updates below.
This option is too obvious in my opinion..
I will also post an analysis i wrote up earlier in previous "chart idea" with psychological reasons as to why i believe we will go for option 1 of the pattern rather than the more obvious option two.
- Looking closer on the smaller time frame to work out the short-term moves.
I have been tracking and calling the analysis of this D - E correction of the triangle on a smaller time frame and i've been pretty spot on with the calls. I've been able to adapt quick to the changing market on the 1 min - 15 minute.
Full analysis of that where i track the ABC on the 1 minute - 15min chart in a link at the end of this post.
- Hence i will show you why i believe we still have 1 last B-C Correction leg up further, which depending on the strength and length of this correction up, will determine where we end up (most likely at the top extremities of the 4 hour triangle/trendline.
This has been my analysis of that correction which can be tracked moment by moment in that link/picture at the end, but here is a quick snap shot. Sorry for the mess :P I'd like to keep it there and not remove it for now. I can get a different browser and draw up a very simple and cleaner version of this now.
Cleaner Version:
Now Lets go in closer.
It seems to me that the C leg is not complete yet.. We could have that AB:BC relationship occur in terms of the length of the next leg up. It could be that the correction we are seeing now, or it could even correct down further to complete wave 2 which means price will drive up higher and do the following.. before it drops.
I'm just showing different options of what can occur. Maybe there's something i've missed. The point is that i believe that there's still room for a bit of upside there.
- Conclusion and Psychology:
I personally believe that price has the potential to end in one of a few places:
1 hour - to the candle body like so:
1 hour - to the wick like so:
With ABC corrections - see the pattern here?
4 hour like so, price has the POTENTIAL to run up to these levels up here. Please keep in mind. (most probable in my opinion however we will have to see what the strength of the final correction wave B-C is - COUNT THE WAVES)
- Psychology: Within this ABC correction, to me, as stated we have completed the B leg and begun the B-C leg. The A leg hits and rejects off the 1 hour trendline and begins it's B leg.
To the herd and masses, this seems like the major rejection off the channel and E point, therefore this is the drop, RIGHT? (without considering the BLACK shaded area -which lets pretend we didn't see yet)
See? A leg and B leg looks like price is rejecting off and the sell off is happening. HOWEVER, this is not the end of this "consolidation triangle". We still have Leg C to go.
Since it APPEARS to the masses like this, where price begins to drop in A-B which gets people on shorts so that the big money get onto the opposite side of those orders for a buy. Price then will drives up for a long impulsive move to ending at point C of the correction,and hence the new E spot. The cycle begins and once again the "herd" gets into those BUYS since they see such an impulsive move up, and breaks in the 1 hour triangle/trendline but yet again, the sells will occur. Price drives down and people start reacting to it believing that the obvious Head & Shoulder's Pattern neckline might break with price driving down towards it. Price may or may not break, but i bet (with a stronger probability) that the big money will use this as an area to play with the heard. Price might come close amd falls short, or even wicks off some people will have already begun shorting believing that it will break, while some will stay out and play the break. However there will be people seeing this sell off/short occuring and believe it could break down further, get emotional and short hold early. Price falls short of the neckline (not giving a chance for the short followers to even inspect for a possible neckline break) reverses for a SHARP ABC correction stopping people out and getting everyone on buys again once they see price going up hard and fast before price ends at ABC and continues on it's strong elliot wave (wave 2-3 inside a wave 2-3) with a strong sell off again, breaking the neckline finally.
Just a hunch. ;) It's a game. The herd is always a step behind.. reacting..
Good luck guys and have fun trading!
I hoe you liked my analysis and got some value from it. If you did I would really appreciate it if you can give me a like and follow :) <3
Also, I try to give as much live updates as i can on my other Chart Idea, check it out if you like :)
Because price has been ranging in this area for a while, it is a viable option to use the 4hour chart to base our patterns from.
- In my opinion, based on my larger frame analysis and where we are at, I'm looking at two options for price action:
1. As you can see in the screenshot below, i have drawn two upper trendlines as you can see the MOST upper trendline there finish this consolidation with an expanding triangle at it's most highest extremity (see this happen too often). It makes senses as it's also not the most glaring obvious thing. I'm leaning more towards believing that this will be the pattern as i'm counting the abc waves inside the triangle/channel and i believe we still have 1 last B-C Correction leg UP.
2. ALTERNATIVELY, the black trendline drawn creates a channel which already price has rejected from and subsequently beginning to reject from again. This could be the point E of the channel/triangle for what i believe we have a final leg down (wave 5) to go near the Head&Shoulder's neckline and then bounce back. I will provide more details into that analysis in the updates below.
This option is too obvious in my opinion..
I will also post an analysis i wrote up earlier in previous "chart idea" with psychological reasons as to why i believe we will go for option 1 of the pattern rather than the more obvious option two.
- Looking closer on the smaller time frame to work out the short-term moves.
I have been tracking and calling the analysis of this D - E correction of the triangle on a smaller time frame and i've been pretty spot on with the calls. I've been able to adapt quick to the changing market on the 1 min - 15 minute.
Full analysis of that where i track the ABC on the 1 minute - 15min chart in a link at the end of this post.
- Hence i will show you why i believe we still have 1 last B-C Correction leg up further, which depending on the strength and length of this correction up, will determine where we end up (most likely at the top extremities of the 4 hour triangle/trendline.
This has been my analysis of that correction which can be tracked moment by moment in that link/picture at the end, but here is a quick snap shot. Sorry for the mess :P I'd like to keep it there and not remove it for now. I can get a different browser and draw up a very simple and cleaner version of this now.
Cleaner Version:
Now Lets go in closer.
It seems to me that the C leg is not complete yet.. We could have that AB:BC relationship occur in terms of the length of the next leg up. It could be that the correction we are seeing now, or it could even correct down further to complete wave 2 which means price will drive up higher and do the following.. before it drops.
I'm just showing different options of what can occur. Maybe there's something i've missed. The point is that i believe that there's still room for a bit of upside there.
- Conclusion and Psychology:
I personally believe that price has the potential to end in one of a few places:
1 hour - to the candle body like so:
1 hour - to the wick like so:
With ABC corrections - see the pattern here?
4 hour like so, price has the POTENTIAL to run up to these levels up here. Please keep in mind. (most probable in my opinion however we will have to see what the strength of the final correction wave B-C is - COUNT THE WAVES)
- Psychology: Within this ABC correction, to me, as stated we have completed the B leg and begun the B-C leg. The A leg hits and rejects off the 1 hour trendline and begins it's B leg.
To the herd and masses, this seems like the major rejection off the channel and E point, therefore this is the drop, RIGHT? (without considering the BLACK shaded area -which lets pretend we didn't see yet)
See? A leg and B leg looks like price is rejecting off and the sell off is happening. HOWEVER, this is not the end of this "consolidation triangle". We still have Leg C to go.
Since it APPEARS to the masses like this, where price begins to drop in A-B which gets people on shorts so that the big money get onto the opposite side of those orders for a buy. Price then will drives up for a long impulsive move to ending at point C of the correction,and hence the new E spot. The cycle begins and once again the "herd" gets into those BUYS since they see such an impulsive move up, and breaks in the 1 hour triangle/trendline but yet again, the sells will occur. Price drives down and people start reacting to it believing that the obvious Head & Shoulder's Pattern neckline might break with price driving down towards it. Price may or may not break, but i bet (with a stronger probability) that the big money will use this as an area to play with the heard. Price might come close amd falls short, or even wicks off some people will have already begun shorting believing that it will break, while some will stay out and play the break. However there will be people seeing this sell off/short occuring and believe it could break down further, get emotional and short hold early. Price falls short of the neckline (not giving a chance for the short followers to even inspect for a possible neckline break) reverses for a SHARP ABC correction stopping people out and getting everyone on buys again once they see price going up hard and fast before price ends at ABC and continues on it's strong elliot wave (wave 2-3 inside a wave 2-3) with a strong sell off again, breaking the neckline finally.
Just a hunch. ;) It's a game. The herd is always a step behind.. reacting..
Good luck guys and have fun trading!
I hoe you liked my analysis and got some value from it. If you did I would really appreciate it if you can give me a like and follow :) <3
Also, I try to give as much live updates as i can on my other Chart Idea, check it out if you like :)
Uwaga
Just to add, once this Wave 5 begins. There's a high probability it could end short of the neckline. But you must be wary that price can PIERCE right through the neckline as wave 5 could extend to levels of 1.618 - 2.618. Be careful of this.
I will most likely look to hold and trail profits strategically just incase this does happen. It will be too great of a move to miss.
Uwaga
Stay tuned for Weekly Time Fram Analysis:Uwaga
To give confirmation and reasons as to the impulsive SHORT elliot wave analysis on the weekly and daily time frames.Uwaga
Live count of the final corrective C leg up:Uwaga
Bit of an extended Wave 5 here incoming. Watch out for the LEG B CORRECTION! Uwaga
I see this big short move on the hour! Triangle forms perfectly to this new price move up for the 3rd tap and E point. Wave 4 could be complete here, and then possibly here comes wave 5 down.Uwaga
Uwaga
Looking for retracements in these areas and to preferrable touch 1-2 trendlines. Underneath those triangles drawn would be nice, testing it as resistance. Uwaga
Very Possible:Uwaga
Uwaga
The big money starting to come in there guys look at that volume. Last 10 seconds of that candle close turned to a wick. I don't believe it! I think it will drop.Uwaga
Zlecenie aktywne
Double tap - DROP? I believe so.Zlecenie aktywne
Broken through support and testing resistance Uwaga
Wave 5 projected to end at the red box, breaking the Head & Shoulders neckline. HOWEVER, if it does end at that point, what comes next is a sharp ABC correction (bigger wave 2) Therefore it will appear to the masses that it was a False breakout. (Dipped under the neckline and then came right up again, creating a wick on the larger time frames)However, if price doesn't seem to reverse at this point or stop short of it but then breaks through, or just drops straight past, it's safe to say that this wave 5 will keep going further than the red box area. Might end at the 1.618 or even further.
Red line minimum distance for Head & SHoulders neckline break. HOWEVER not to say that it will happen now, price could take its time to reach there. (which i believe bigger WAVE 2-3 will get there. However before we get to wave 3, we must go through a wave 2 correction - most likely a sharp ABC retracement, which i believe is a perfect spot to show a "False neckline breakout". We will see what price does. If price breaks the neckline i will move my stops above the neckline at a good spot in case price sharply reverses.
Uwaga
Reaching projection for wave 5. Lets see if it rejects big off here. If so appearance of a false break out. Price sharply ABC corrections, everyone gets into buys, then BIG SELL OFF (WAVE 2-3) Uwaga
I believe it will drop again now. https://ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JpalCZF2/
Uwaga
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In case price blasts below the red or reverses back UP from the red, i will place my stop losses here !!Dotted line. ;)
Uwaga
I will place my stops at the dotted line when price breaks below that new red thing line i drew.Uwaga
Uwaga
VERY POSSIBLE BUY.Hit the projection.
Momentum divergence possible. Lets see what price does very soon.
Uwaga
Hit projection:I ahave both buys and shorts running. Positioned both well. Ready to capitalise on both sides of the move.
Uwaga
Look at indicators - momentum shifting...Uwaga
Final point (E in triangle to test off and make moves up.Zlecenie aktywne
E POINT COMPLETE Uwaga
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wicked and created E.Uwaga
This is probably it everyione, place your buys and stop loss under that E wick (E may not be finished though, so if so place it under the C. Remember STRICT RISK MANAGEMENT! 1-2% MAX for your total position exposure Uwaga
We have up to this range for E to end somewhere here.Uwaga
Can slope that bottom trendline down a bit more for the end of that C wickUwaga
This is the final stop for the buy set up. It will either turn or fall further down, we will see. https://ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kqtq54QP/Uwaga
Uwaga
I like that Macd look thoughUwaga
THIS IS IT. Let it rip. Macds crossing too. GOTCHAA!!! :))))Zlecenie aktywne
Buy and place stop losses at the dotted line. Enjoy :) Uwaga
If you liked my analysis, please like and follow. I would ABSOLUTELY love it!!! <3Zlecenie aktywne
Uwaga
FUTURE:I believe we may see a sharp ABC correction to end Wave 2.
See photo below with Fibonacci Retracement levels. Could possibly end between 50-61.8%, however don't have tunnel vision on that 1 area only. Always be wary that it could end elsewhere. It could end short of it or even above the 61.8.
Just like the Triangle of wave 4 ended short, i was able to quickly adapt and adjust my chart to give me confirmation that this was the end. You also should be like that. Ready to move, to adapt, to be like "water" as Bruce Lee would say.
Most likely this correction will be sharp, especially since it coincides with the psychological aspect of this. As i stated earlier, What price just did (ending past the neckline) most people thought that once it breaks, price will continue to fall (via the Head & Shoulders rule) so some people started to short more, especially the MOMENT it broke the neckline.
Price is now working on a false break out and will make moves up. People will then believe "okay it DIDN'T break the neckline (on the larger time frame it will look like it wicked it and rejected out). Price will start moving up, people will get on BUYS along with it. After price corrects at it's retracement, the sell off will happen and it will be POWERFUL! (Wave 2-3 inside the wave II-III).
Great opportunity to short!
For now guys, just some words of guidance. Stay calm :) Let's chill and ride this baby up.
It is a good idea to put your stop loss into stop profit/breakeven so that it's a risk free trade and you don't have to worry.
If price stops you out, look for re-entry if there is.
Price may come down now and retrace before it makes moves up again.
That's a good entry point if you do wish to enter.
Safe spot is underneath that E wick i showed earlier.
Another safe spot is underneath the point where price retraces and bounces back up. You usually would be safe in these spots. Let it run guys, enjoy :)
If there are any questions please write them in the comments section below and i'll get to you as soon as i can.
Have a wonderful time. I'll be working tomorrow and ending around NFP time or just before it. I will TRY to bring my laptop and see if i can be here with you guys. It would be nice.
Happy Trading Friends! :D
I will let this ride and finally get an early nights sleep tonight, i need it especially after the past few nights of the lack of it!
GOODNIGHT! :D
Uwaga
AB = CD relationship. Spot on. LEG UP now!!Uwaga
Sorry guys bad analysis above. I rushed home from work and quickly posted that. I believe this is the next move. Let me look at analysis again.
Uwaga
This one is it. I believe this is creating wave 0-1 and then 1-2.It will make eveyrone believe now especially with that WICK that it's going up, but it will be the retracement for wave 2 and begin a big move down for wave 3, knocking out the bulls.
Zlecenie aktywne
I scaled into more shortsUwaga
Uwaga
Candles close at the 38.2%, wicks the 61.8% Big move down. 5 wave impulse to complete wave C of leg B of the correction. After the 5 wave impulse down, BUY for a big move up (Final Leg C correction)
Uwaga
Looking to drop from this zone.Zlecenie aktywne
Uwaga
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Okay smaller degree waves are now tracting for the regular sized Wave 1 and now completing wave 2. Uwaga
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Really like the set up. NFP was crazy.. Think finally got the trade.Zlecenie aktywne
Uwaga
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