Gold weekly update 13-17.03
I am expecting a bullish continuation. Price formed reversal pattern 2 weeks ago and last week was just a retracement. NFP moved as I estimated and confirmed the rally.
Macroeconomics
The most recent decline happened, because J.Powell said that we probably will see higher levels of the interest rates. Last month the readings were very inflationary.
Inflation is not going down, will see how the FED will continue to fight with.
This month we are starting with NFP and Jobless claims - for now they are showing that labor market is cooling down. Waiting for CPI.
Top Down Analysis
On weekly TF gold was manipulated to the up side. I am expecting to see the previous manipulation reached. There is still a lot of liquidity below the current price and most important is 1800 area, which was respected.
I marked the manipulation areas on 4H TF. These levels are lying with the daily chart.
Yesterday, for NFP event I said that the last high is not interesting for the banks, because it is manipulated area. The Smart money concept traders will say that this is major liquidity pool, but it is not. This is not the main target. If the true move is bullish it will go far away from this high. There was a big chance price to react and make new lower low, because the area was very strong manipulated.
We will use it now as support, if price go down to it, not because it is support or resistance, but because price was manipulated multiple times.
Benchmark
It seems that the recent bullish move is confirmed, but if you look deeper the correlation between the assets is weak. Meaning for me that for now the long-term bullish trend is still not resumed. There are a lot of divergences on weekly and monthly time frame, I dont like them.
COT Reports
Since 3 weeks, there are no updates on COT reports.
Yields
Yields are going down, as I thought, but it seems to me that they are in a bullish trend.
2Y Yields moved in a tight bullish channel and now is forming a broad one.
XAUUSD vs GDX
The assets diverged, probably XAUUSD will continue up. The problem that I see: GDX is still very bearish, meaning that Gold price is not really going up. XAUUSD is so bullish, because of the Yields.
Gold vs Silver
SMT divergence between the assets. Silver just formed strong reversal pattern, meaning that the assets will be bullish for a while.
Elliot Wave
I am working on theory of ABC movement as B wave. Wave B should be a retracement in a bearish intermediate trend.
Volume Spread Analysis
Still no volume on future market. We should be cautious with the current rally.
Retail Support and Resistance
Not much to say. The support was respected for the second time.
Momentum
On 4H TF price seems to be quite overbought, confirming my theory that soon will see decline.
RSI is also overbought, but in a bullish range, meaning for me that price will go up for a while.
Macroeconomics
The most recent decline happened, because J.Powell said that we probably will see higher levels of the interest rates. Last month the readings were very inflationary.
Inflation is not going down, will see how the FED will continue to fight with.
This month we are starting with NFP and Jobless claims - for now they are showing that labor market is cooling down. Waiting for CPI.
Top Down Analysis
On weekly TF gold was manipulated to the up side. I am expecting to see the previous manipulation reached. There is still a lot of liquidity below the current price and most important is 1800 area, which was respected.
I marked the manipulation areas on 4H TF. These levels are lying with the daily chart.
Yesterday, for NFP event I said that the last high is not interesting for the banks, because it is manipulated area. The Smart money concept traders will say that this is major liquidity pool, but it is not. This is not the main target. If the true move is bullish it will go far away from this high. There was a big chance price to react and make new lower low, because the area was very strong manipulated.
We will use it now as support, if price go down to it, not because it is support or resistance, but because price was manipulated multiple times.
Benchmark
It seems that the recent bullish move is confirmed, but if you look deeper the correlation between the assets is weak. Meaning for me that for now the long-term bullish trend is still not resumed. There are a lot of divergences on weekly and monthly time frame, I dont like them.
COT Reports
Since 3 weeks, there are no updates on COT reports.
Yields
Yields are going down, as I thought, but it seems to me that they are in a bullish trend.
2Y Yields moved in a tight bullish channel and now is forming a broad one.
XAUUSD vs GDX
The assets diverged, probably XAUUSD will continue up. The problem that I see: GDX is still very bearish, meaning that Gold price is not really going up. XAUUSD is so bullish, because of the Yields.
Gold vs Silver
SMT divergence between the assets. Silver just formed strong reversal pattern, meaning that the assets will be bullish for a while.
Elliot Wave
I am working on theory of ABC movement as B wave. Wave B should be a retracement in a bearish intermediate trend.
Volume Spread Analysis
Still no volume on future market. We should be cautious with the current rally.
Retail Support and Resistance
Not much to say. The support was respected for the second time.
Momentum
On 4H TF price seems to be quite overbought, confirming my theory that soon will see decline.
RSI is also overbought, but in a bullish range, meaning for me that price will go up for a while.
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