MQP 21B - GOLD IS DEAD, BUT THIS SHORT IS SO MONEY!
HEADER - No more time. No way out. The only way is down.
SUMMARY - Barring a miracle, this is going to happen. After 1760, 1720 will be next likely by 5/23, almost definitely by 5/27. Odds of 1700 are real for next week.
DETAILS - This is continuation of 21A. Link is below. That 5 hours to stop bears gave us 1820, which actually took 7 hours. The response there was telling. I also stated that bulls had roughly 12 hours for a 40pt run to stop this scenario. That assumed continuation of move to 1820. That 12-hour zone limit is almost over, too. All bulls can do now is zig zag in the first box.
STRATEGY - Obviously I am short. I will stay up the whole night if I have to, in order to bank the move from box 3 to box 4. It should be 1800 to 1760, I will execute with 5/20 1800 puts in futures.
SUMMARY - Barring a miracle, this is going to happen. After 1760, 1720 will be next likely by 5/23, almost definitely by 5/27. Odds of 1700 are real for next week.
DETAILS - This is continuation of 21A. Link is below. That 5 hours to stop bears gave us 1820, which actually took 7 hours. The response there was telling. I also stated that bulls had roughly 12 hours for a 40pt run to stop this scenario. That assumed continuation of move to 1820. That 12-hour zone limit is almost over, too. All bulls can do now is zig zag in the first box.
STRATEGY - Obviously I am short. I will stay up the whole night if I have to, in order to bank the move from box 3 to box 4. It should be 1800 to 1760, I will execute with 5/20 1800 puts in futures.
Uwaga
NOTES -1. this is 18-min bar chart
2. it's for 36-hour out, which for whatever reason is the limit for 3X regression layering with multiple angles
3. every single technical reasoning classic, modern, contemporary, price, volume, EVERYTHING IS CALLING FOR THIS MOVE
4. this doesn't mean gold bull thesis long term is completely dead
5. but this makes August-September rally picture very weak
6. bull thesis can't be seriously entertained until December or even later
Uwaga
10:39 AM ET 1. there's a problem with box 2
2. I can't disprove that it's that low
3. but odds say it should be higher, like by 15 pts or so
4. 3 and 4 is about perfect
Uwaga
11:50 1. I see the spike to 1824
2. I bought insurance just in case this thing pops to 1840 and then 1880
3. this is REALLY LATE for bulls do complete 20H Draft 3, but it's not impossible
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