Gold Weekly Forecast 14-18.11
Zaktualizowano
Last week I targeted 1760 level and the bias was right. Price moved even more and faster, without retracements.
This week my bias is bullish again and I will share my confirmations with you.
I am expecting from Gold to go a little bit higher, reaching daily manipulation zone and the monthly pivot point. After that a retracement is expected.
Price moved up very fast, leaving an inefficiency behind. For a healthy trend price must to move without imbalance or small one.
Other reason that I am expecting a retracement is, because lot of retail traders seeing this big move will buy Gold. The institutions want their money and will manipulate price down.
Price should go down and test the previous daily manipulation zone, before continue up. This is a very strong level of confluence - manipulation zone, monthly pivot, Fibonacci retracement (61,8%-70,5%), 50% of the consolidation, strong psychological level, very strong SnR. This will be the perfect scenario.
If you have issues to draw the manipulations zones, the indicator will do it instead you ( SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Zones)
COT Reports will be released on Monday, so I can not include them into Analysis, but we have enough information to make the forecast.
Macroeconomics
The market sentiment has changed.
CPI reading showed significant slowing down of inflation. FED already announced that they can hike the rates above 4,5% if the inflation is not going down, but now there are speculations that FED will be more dovish. Market already priced in and made huge bullish impulse move.
There are speculations that FED overreacted and the monetary policy is too tight ,thats why they will go with smaller pace or even pause the rate hike.
There are signs that China is easing the Covid restrictions. This should increase the demand for Gold.
More info you can get from the my monthly economical report.
Right now the Yields are not so attractive for the investors and the issues with cryptos leave no choices for investments, except the metals.
Buying banks + investors = big bullish moves
Sector Metals
The whole sector is going up. I dont see divergence. This is confirmation that there is no anomaly and Gold should continue up.
Advanced Market Structure
Higher highs and lower lows can be labelled from everyone, even indicators - for example "SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Structure, Liquidity".
On this chart I am presenting you an advanced understanding of the market structure. This give me the ability to make projections and get idea how eventual the market can move.
According to my count, price formed Long Term Low (LTL) and this is indication that this Low will hold, at least for a while.
Price already broke the key level, which is indication that the main trend is changing. If price break the critical level this will be the confirmation.
On this chart we can see that price is forming Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
This chart looks like to me as ICT buy model.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly
Price is making a huge monthly candle. This is typical, when institutions are buying. When they are buying, we should buy too :).
If we analyse the candles, we will see that when price is dropping it makes small candles, but when is pushing it makes big candles. This means that the main trend is bullish.
Weekly
Pretty much the same story - very big weekly candle, definitely anomaly in price action, meaning that something is happening.
Price already made high confluence buy setup and we saw the result. After this big candle I am expecting some retracement to a cover part of the imbalance.
Daily
On daily TF price is breaking every last lower high, meaning that structure is changed or changing. Behind the big candles are the banks.
Yields
10 Years Yields already pivoted by forming the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
2 Years Yields also turned very sharply, by breaking the bullish channel.
The bullish Yields were only competitor for the Gold, but they are no longer an issue. Now Gold can start to acting as inflation hedging asset.
GDX and XAUUSD
They both go up, no divergence. It is a confirmation for the direction. GDX already started its retracement. Now is XAUUSD's turn.
My opinion is that GDX will test the consolidation, before continue up.
Last few weeks XAUUSD was underperformed against GDX, which lead me that XAUUSD will retrace deeper to 50% of the consolidation, where is my target and confluence of confirmations.
Gold-Silver
It seems to me that Silver is showing more bullish momentum last few weeks compared to Gold. It already reached a consolidation zone, which means to me, it will retrace or consolidate again. The retracement already has started.
Gold should follow Silver and will retrace.
Elliot-Wave Analysis
I follow and label the price for a while. My last count suggested that Gold will make a big retracement or started new impulse up ( I wrote in my last forecast). In current economical situation and price action, I believe that the new impulse already started.
VSA
On this chart I marked the current Wyckoff patterns and made my projection for the future patterns.
In my opinion the last lower low was only a fake-out(spring) to clear the major liquidity at 1680 area.
On this chart we can also see that price lost the bearish momentum in the consolidation and created bullish one. Another confirmation for the new bullish trend.
Momentum
From this chart we can see that the momentum already turned and now is showing bullish momentum.
Price already reached the long term moving average. From MA normally price bounce a bit before break it.
RSI is has bullish momentum and is about to break the consolidation range. Right now is in overbought condition, which is one more confirmation that Gold will retrace.
For more information contact me.
This week my bias is bullish again and I will share my confirmations with you.
I am expecting from Gold to go a little bit higher, reaching daily manipulation zone and the monthly pivot point. After that a retracement is expected.
Price moved up very fast, leaving an inefficiency behind. For a healthy trend price must to move without imbalance or small one.
Other reason that I am expecting a retracement is, because lot of retail traders seeing this big move will buy Gold. The institutions want their money and will manipulate price down.
Price should go down and test the previous daily manipulation zone, before continue up. This is a very strong level of confluence - manipulation zone, monthly pivot, Fibonacci retracement (61,8%-70,5%), 50% of the consolidation, strong psychological level, very strong SnR. This will be the perfect scenario.
If you have issues to draw the manipulations zones, the indicator will do it instead you ( SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Zones)
COT Reports will be released on Monday, so I can not include them into Analysis, but we have enough information to make the forecast.
Macroeconomics
The market sentiment has changed.
CPI reading showed significant slowing down of inflation. FED already announced that they can hike the rates above 4,5% if the inflation is not going down, but now there are speculations that FED will be more dovish. Market already priced in and made huge bullish impulse move.
There are speculations that FED overreacted and the monetary policy is too tight ,thats why they will go with smaller pace or even pause the rate hike.
There are signs that China is easing the Covid restrictions. This should increase the demand for Gold.
More info you can get from the my monthly economical report.
Right now the Yields are not so attractive for the investors and the issues with cryptos leave no choices for investments, except the metals.
Buying banks + investors = big bullish moves
Sector Metals
The whole sector is going up. I dont see divergence. This is confirmation that there is no anomaly and Gold should continue up.
Advanced Market Structure
Higher highs and lower lows can be labelled from everyone, even indicators - for example "SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Structure, Liquidity".
On this chart I am presenting you an advanced understanding of the market structure. This give me the ability to make projections and get idea how eventual the market can move.
According to my count, price formed Long Term Low (LTL) and this is indication that this Low will hold, at least for a while.
Price already broke the key level, which is indication that the main trend is changing. If price break the critical level this will be the confirmation.
On this chart we can see that price is forming Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
This chart looks like to me as ICT buy model.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly
Price is making a huge monthly candle. This is typical, when institutions are buying. When they are buying, we should buy too :).
If we analyse the candles, we will see that when price is dropping it makes small candles, but when is pushing it makes big candles. This means that the main trend is bullish.
Weekly
Pretty much the same story - very big weekly candle, definitely anomaly in price action, meaning that something is happening.
Price already made high confluence buy setup and we saw the result. After this big candle I am expecting some retracement to a cover part of the imbalance.
Daily
On daily TF price is breaking every last lower high, meaning that structure is changed or changing. Behind the big candles are the banks.
Yields
10 Years Yields already pivoted by forming the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
2 Years Yields also turned very sharply, by breaking the bullish channel.
The bullish Yields were only competitor for the Gold, but they are no longer an issue. Now Gold can start to acting as inflation hedging asset.
GDX and XAUUSD
They both go up, no divergence. It is a confirmation for the direction. GDX already started its retracement. Now is XAUUSD's turn.
My opinion is that GDX will test the consolidation, before continue up.
Last few weeks XAUUSD was underperformed against GDX, which lead me that XAUUSD will retrace deeper to 50% of the consolidation, where is my target and confluence of confirmations.
Gold-Silver
It seems to me that Silver is showing more bullish momentum last few weeks compared to Gold. It already reached a consolidation zone, which means to me, it will retrace or consolidate again. The retracement already has started.
Gold should follow Silver and will retrace.
Elliot-Wave Analysis
I follow and label the price for a while. My last count suggested that Gold will make a big retracement or started new impulse up ( I wrote in my last forecast). In current economical situation and price action, I believe that the new impulse already started.
VSA
On this chart I marked the current Wyckoff patterns and made my projection for the future patterns.
In my opinion the last lower low was only a fake-out(spring) to clear the major liquidity at 1680 area.
On this chart we can also see that price lost the bearish momentum in the consolidation and created bullish one. Another confirmation for the new bullish trend.
Momentum
From this chart we can see that the momentum already turned and now is showing bullish momentum.
Price already reached the long term moving average. From MA normally price bounce a bit before break it.
RSI is has bullish momentum and is about to break the consolidation range. Right now is in overbought condition, which is one more confirmation that Gold will retrace.
For more information contact me.
Uwaga
I added the last part of the equation - the time. You can see how the swings are almost the same length. Now time projection are also possible.Now the forecast is totally complete, consisting all elements - price, volume/momentum and time.
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