Don't trade XAU/USD in the middle
Gold is currently in a phase where it’s too early to establish an uptrend channel, but the conditions are ripening for a retest of its previous all-time high in the $2,793 area. What’s crucial at this stage is the formation of a rounded bullish pattern, which could set the stage for further upward momentum.
Short-Term Movement: Retest and Cooling Down
Retest of $2,793:
A rally to retest the $2,793 level appears likely, as gold capitalizes on recent bullish momentum.
Cooling Phase:
After rejecting the all-time high, gold could cool down, first retreating to the $2,650 zone, and then further to $2,550. This corrective move will allow the market to consolidate before the next significant push.
Two Possible Scenarios for 2025–2026:
Scenario 1: Bullish Channel and New High by April 2025
Timeline: Between January and February 2025, XAU/USD could start forming a clear bullish channel.
Target: This structure could lead to a new all-time high in the $2,800–$2,900 range by March–April 2025.
Outlook: This scenario represents a continuation of the bullish trend with steady growth.
Scenario 2: Prolonged Range and Significant Drop by 2026
Timeline: Gold may remain in a range-bound phase until November 2025, oscillating between key levels ($2,700-$2,500)
Target: A lack of upward momentum during this time increases the probability of a significant decline to $2,300 by May 2026.
Outlook: This scenario reflects market exhaustion after prolonged consolidation, leading to a bearish correction.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $2,793 (ATH), $2,800–$2,900 (potential new high).
Support: $2,650, $2,550 (corrective phases), $2,300 (long-term bearish target).
Summary:
XAU/USD is preparing for a retest of the $2,793 all-time high, followed by a likely cooling phase to $2,650–$2,550. Beyond this, gold’s trajectory depends on its ability to establish a bullish channel in early 2025:
Bullish Outcome: New ATH of $2,800–$2,900 by April 2025.
Bearish Outcome: Prolonged range followed by a drop to $2,300 by May 2026.
Traders and investors should monitor key levels and the market’s ability to build a rounded bullish pattern to gauge the next significant move.
Short-Term Movement: Retest and Cooling Down
Retest of $2,793:
A rally to retest the $2,793 level appears likely, as gold capitalizes on recent bullish momentum.
Cooling Phase:
After rejecting the all-time high, gold could cool down, first retreating to the $2,650 zone, and then further to $2,550. This corrective move will allow the market to consolidate before the next significant push.
Two Possible Scenarios for 2025–2026:
Scenario 1: Bullish Channel and New High by April 2025
Timeline: Between January and February 2025, XAU/USD could start forming a clear bullish channel.
Target: This structure could lead to a new all-time high in the $2,800–$2,900 range by March–April 2025.
Outlook: This scenario represents a continuation of the bullish trend with steady growth.
Scenario 2: Prolonged Range and Significant Drop by 2026
Timeline: Gold may remain in a range-bound phase until November 2025, oscillating between key levels ($2,700-$2,500)
Target: A lack of upward momentum during this time increases the probability of a significant decline to $2,300 by May 2026.
Outlook: This scenario reflects market exhaustion after prolonged consolidation, leading to a bearish correction.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $2,793 (ATH), $2,800–$2,900 (potential new high).
Support: $2,650, $2,550 (corrective phases), $2,300 (long-term bearish target).
Summary:
XAU/USD is preparing for a retest of the $2,793 all-time high, followed by a likely cooling phase to $2,650–$2,550. Beyond this, gold’s trajectory depends on its ability to establish a bullish channel in early 2025:
Bullish Outcome: New ATH of $2,800–$2,900 by April 2025.
Bearish Outcome: Prolonged range followed by a drop to $2,300 by May 2026.
Traders and investors should monitor key levels and the market’s ability to build a rounded bullish pattern to gauge the next significant move.
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