Pushing higher

7 paź

Oil prices were sharply higher this morning, building on last week’s gains. Last week, front-month WTI recorded its strongest week since March last year, tacking on over 9%. In fact, from last Tuesday’s low to this morning’s high, WTI is up 14%. The turnaround has come on the back of escalating hostilities across the Middle East. The biggest concern is that Israel now targets Iran’s oil refineries and other energy infrastructure. This would crimp supply, but also mark a huge step up in hostilities between these two major players. Yet there are still powerful forces weighing on crude prices. Supply remains plentiful, with OPEC+ continuing to hold back production to keep prices elevated. Meanwhile, it’s the US which is now the world’s biggest producer, and not restrained by OPEC+ rules. The demand growth outlook remains uncertain, particularly where China is concerned. The Chinese economy continues to suffer as it deals with the collapse in its property market. Recent stimulus has helped feed the rally in crude. But investors are also considering how alternative energy sources will affect future demand for crude. Not just renewables, but also natural gas, which despite a recent pick-up in prices, remains historically cheap relative to oil.