Oil spikes on escalation fears

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Crude oil continues to push up off the lows hit on Tuesday when front-month WTI broke below $67 per barrel for the first time since the beginning of October. Since then, oil has managed to build some upside momentum, although it’s far too early to tell if there’s a definitive change in direction. Nevertheless, things are looking better for the bulls, in some respects. The daily MACD has begun to turn higher, although it still remains in negative territory. Yesterday evening, prices suddenly surged higher in a move which took front-month WTI from $69 to $70.50 in less than an hour. The jump came after Israeli intelligence reported that Iran was planning to attack Isreal from its bases within Iraq. This should keep markets off balance as the weekend approaches. Traders will be on alert over the weekend. And beyond, in the absence of an attack. But it also means that yesterday’s rally is likely to unwind completely should any attack prove ineffectual. Despite this, it is potentially another step up in the escalation of hostilities which is starting to normalise direct military contact between Israel and Iran, rather than with Iran’s proxies.