Wheat in Elliot Waves: rally's first impulse?
Wheat has rallied since April 19 due to short covering and various weather concerns, and various analysts expect the grain to return sooner or later to the fundamentals ample supply.
From an Elliot Waves perspective on a daily chart, it's possible to see a 5 wave structure marked in yellow 1-5. However, while the rally proper began on April 19, it's not completely clear whether that first major impulse was actually wave 3 (yellow), with wave 1 starting on March 8. If that's the case, then recent highs complete the 5th wave and we can now expect a B and C wave down. But if April 19th actually marked the first wave, then TA-wise there may yet be another impulse up for wave 5. In this scenario, the 2.618 Fib may become the next resistance.
As fickle weather has largely been responsible for the rally, it's worth considering that an actual crop-affecting climate anomaly in the coming months due to increasingly volatile climate change may not yet be priced in.
Not financial advise of any kind and you trade at own risk.
From an Elliot Waves perspective on a daily chart, it's possible to see a 5 wave structure marked in yellow 1-5. However, while the rally proper began on April 19, it's not completely clear whether that first major impulse was actually wave 3 (yellow), with wave 1 starting on March 8. If that's the case, then recent highs complete the 5th wave and we can now expect a B and C wave down. But if April 19th actually marked the first wave, then TA-wise there may yet be another impulse up for wave 5. In this scenario, the 2.618 Fib may become the next resistance.
As fickle weather has largely been responsible for the rally, it's worth considering that an actual crop-affecting climate anomaly in the coming months due to increasingly volatile climate change may not yet be priced in.
Not financial advise of any kind and you trade at own risk.
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