RealMacro

US Federal Tax Receipts Declining Bad JuJu?

Short
FRED:W006RC1Q027SBEA   Federal government current tax receipts
Tax revenues in the past were a good indicator for a recession. However after the massive $10 trillion of added public debt loans $9 trillion in QE increasing the money supply by 43% this indicator may be correcting for distortion rather than giving us an actual valid economic signal.

However we should keep an eye on it as it is heading in the wrong direction. If tax revenues continue to fall it obviously means the economy is earning, producing and spending less. Thus Earnings per share will suffer as result along with the entire stock market.

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