VIX Long - Hedge for a Market Pullback
Zaktualizowano
I have taken this chart pattern previous from the lead up to the "correction" we had back in February. We are now back at all time highs again, and all the newbies are most likely going to jump into the market because apparently we are in a "confirmed bullish market". People, be cautious. From my experience, when analysts are stating the "certainty" of the market moving higher (not the PROBABILITY, but the CERTAINTY), this is when the market generally likes to have at least a 2-5% pull back.. but as you can see in February on the SPY, we had over a 10% retracement from this all time high. Now If we look back at the SPY between August 2015 and early 2016, you will see that we really did just hit a wall and come back down to the lows in August. And on the VIX, you will see that, although we did not reach the same highs in January 2016 as we did in August 2015, but what we did see is, a lot of new investors come into the market and and the previous investors pull their money out in fear of losing it again.
Now flip forward to today, what has happened, AAPL cracked over the $1 Trillion in Value, AMZN also following closely behind, I mean... since October 2017, AMZN has almost DOUBLED in value whilst AAPL has also grown 40% in that same time. Now, I'm not saying these companies don't make money, I'm also not saying they aren't worth the value they are today, they are extremely profitable companies, HOWEVER, all the people who have invested in these companies in the last 10 Months will also be looking at taking their profits off the table. Also if you look at my related chart on the SPY, back in September 2017, I predicted where the market would move to before we started to "cool off/lose steam" aka. have a correction. Although I Didn't get the DATE correct, the actual WAVE COUNT and FIBONACCI levels were almost PERFECT... In my eyes, we have completed the wave count 1-5, however we have not yet complete the A,B,C count before we start a new trend, and I think we are currently in the B phase of this wave count.
I know there are a lot of people anticipating a "CRASH" in the stock market, and I'm certainly not doubting that to happen especially with the debt crisis we have in the US at the moment, and who knows, this could very well be the beginning of what is yet to come... but just know that like all 4 seasons, we have a winter but is the what makes ebs and flows of nature grow. Well there is a "winter" in the stock market and generally it lasts for 3-6 months and occurs roughly every 3 years, and to this present day, it has been 3 years. But more importantly, REMEMBER what follows winter... SPRING... The new beginning where things start to grow again and blossom. So be warned, Be ready for the Bull market after this correction.
So here is my thoughts on what we will see on the VIX as we move into these all time highs again. These chart patterns were inserted into this chart over a week ago on the 13th August and have been shaping up perfectly, so i thought I would share this idea with everyone. With all this being said, personally I plan to buy some call options on the VIX here as a hedge against any long positions as we have moved quite high in the past 10 months already.
As you can see I have taken the previous chart patterns from the VIX back in February and also 4-5 months after the correction we had back in Late 2015 which are what i anticipate to happen to complete this A,B,C count before we start our next bullish trend. This should time perfectly for December Santa Clause Rally if we have a pull back/rest for 3 months.
Happy Trading!
Good Luck!
Now flip forward to today, what has happened, AAPL cracked over the $1 Trillion in Value, AMZN also following closely behind, I mean... since October 2017, AMZN has almost DOUBLED in value whilst AAPL has also grown 40% in that same time. Now, I'm not saying these companies don't make money, I'm also not saying they aren't worth the value they are today, they are extremely profitable companies, HOWEVER, all the people who have invested in these companies in the last 10 Months will also be looking at taking their profits off the table. Also if you look at my related chart on the SPY, back in September 2017, I predicted where the market would move to before we started to "cool off/lose steam" aka. have a correction. Although I Didn't get the DATE correct, the actual WAVE COUNT and FIBONACCI levels were almost PERFECT... In my eyes, we have completed the wave count 1-5, however we have not yet complete the A,B,C count before we start a new trend, and I think we are currently in the B phase of this wave count.
I know there are a lot of people anticipating a "CRASH" in the stock market, and I'm certainly not doubting that to happen especially with the debt crisis we have in the US at the moment, and who knows, this could very well be the beginning of what is yet to come... but just know that like all 4 seasons, we have a winter but is the what makes ebs and flows of nature grow. Well there is a "winter" in the stock market and generally it lasts for 3-6 months and occurs roughly every 3 years, and to this present day, it has been 3 years. But more importantly, REMEMBER what follows winter... SPRING... The new beginning where things start to grow again and blossom. So be warned, Be ready for the Bull market after this correction.
So here is my thoughts on what we will see on the VIX as we move into these all time highs again. These chart patterns were inserted into this chart over a week ago on the 13th August and have been shaping up perfectly, so i thought I would share this idea with everyone. With all this being said, personally I plan to buy some call options on the VIX here as a hedge against any long positions as we have moved quite high in the past 10 months already.
As you can see I have taken the previous chart patterns from the VIX back in February and also 4-5 months after the correction we had back in Late 2015 which are what i anticipate to happen to complete this A,B,C count before we start our next bullish trend. This should time perfectly for December Santa Clause Rally if we have a pull back/rest for 3 months.
Happy Trading!
Good Luck!
Uwaga
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.