ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF

Long

$UVXY: the next move, to $50?

I've been watching the for months now trying to anticipate the next large move. Throughout September and October I was anticipating a larger move to play out, but we ended up just trading in a range. Luckily got a few profitable moves in the chop and got out at the high right before the election.

Then I thought there would be a larger drop. I entered in the low earlier this week and sold my spot position today on the move higher.

Now what I'm anticipating from here is a decline in vol early in the week and a rally in the market. On Tuesday or Wednesday, I'd be looking to go long volatility again as I think the NVDA reaction after market close Wednesday is going to cause some volatility in the markets.

Lots of reasons are lining up to believe the outcome of NVDA earnings will be bearish. I have a pivot on the chart on Wednesday. The NVDA chart has stalled at resistance and gapped lower.

Etc.

I think this will be the last large move in vol until early 2025 (Feb-March).So in other words, after this selloff the market rallies into Q1 2025.

In 2025, we will make volatility great again. I think we're going to see a resurgence of vol and we're going to see covid style numbers get printed in vol with 200-400% moves.

However, let's wait until this move plays out first before we focus on 2025.

I'm looking to enter calls early next week for 12/20 30C.

Uwaga

Looking to me like that was the beginning of the move... I'm looking for a place to get an entry.

I've been entering other put positions over the past week, but haven't taken a position in UVXY yet. I want to see if the market can rally into the end of day today in anticipation for NVDA earnings, then I'd like to get a position there. But the market can also just drop from here (or NVDA can beat and SPY goes higher into tomorrow and then turn over). Lots of possibilities here, but regardless, the chart on higher timeframes is starting to shape up for a bigger move up.

Uwaga

Ended up starting with a spot position... Will add options tomorrow.

Uwaga

Bought 12/06 33C.

Alternatively for safer positions, was thinking of going with 12/20 40C

Uwaga

There is a chance UVXY can correct a bit over the next few days maybe until the 26th... if so, I'll just keep accumulating if it happens.

The reason being, RSI on the weekly is testing the bullish level. That tells me that, if RSI can hold that level and we bounce, the move is likely to be really strong. One of the bigger moves of the year. RSI on every time frame is bullish too. Combine that with bullish Heikin ashi candles forming on the 1D, 2D, 3D, 4D, 5D. We just need to see it form on the weekly now.

So I don't really expect a move this week, I think it'll likely play out on or after Nov 26. Let's see if we get a bullish weekly candle next week.

We're close though.

Uwaga

Looking good here. Will likely add to positions tomorrow.

Uwaga

Bought $40 calls 12/20 for $.32

Uwaga

Also bought $29 calls for 12/20 at $.54

Uwaga

Looking like we're bottoming today. Tomorrow should start the move higher.

Uwaga

Bought some 20C for Friday

Uwaga

Also bought some 30C for 2/21 (this is just so I don't have to have exact timing). However, I still think there will be a move that takes place in the next two weeks. If I'm wrong, this position should cover me.

Uwaga

Working hypothesis is that the bottom of the market comes a week from tomorrow. Tuesday Dec 17th.

If we get the move I'm expecting, could hit the top resistance on the chart at $100 or so.

Let's see. Vol starting to look good. Will update when I'm starting to take profits.

Have UVXY for 12/20, 1/17 and 2/21 calls between $29-40. Also holding lots of spot

Uwaga

Added more $1/17 30C

Uwaga

All positions now in the green. Between +50% and +280%. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Shaved some off of my 1/17 today and letting the rest ride.

Looking for $53,$78 as key levels next. Will likely take profits at those levels.

Uwaga

Sold half of my 2/16 up 115%, sold half of my 29C up 127%, sold 6 of my 1/17 up 480%.

I still have 50 29C, 300 40C for 12/20, 30 30C for 2/16 and $40 30C for 1/17.

YOLOing the rest on tomorrow. Hoping for one last big move.

Uwaga

Welp didn't see that big move down coming today. So all of the options for today expired worthless. All good though. Glad I took profits yesterday so that a majority of my principal was out. Still think we'll end up higher moving higher despite the large drop today. Could happen next week or could happen the week of the 6th. Likely going to add back to my 1/17 position next week.

We double bottomed today so would expect a bounce from here. Let's see.

Uwaga

I added a lot more vol exposure today. To me, the overall structure looks bullish still despite the 30% move down in the past couple of days. I just think we're setting up for a very large move higher. As of now, the thinking is we see the $78 resistance on the chart. Let's see how the rest of the week shapes up. There is a possibility we see $18 before we see a bounce. If we get down there, I'll just continue adding.

Bought some 30C for 1/10 and added to my 1/17 position.

Also bought some 22C for this week.

Uwaga

Alright so far, the bounce is looking good. I've scaled back into a lot of calls over the past week for 1/10 and 1/17 expirations (mostly 30C). I do think this will be the actual move now. Reason being - the low timeframe RSIs reset after that move down and the high timeframe RSIs (10hr, 1D, 2D) are above bullish levels and look like the can go much higher.

Let's see how high we go. Resistances are on the chart.

Above $30 and we should see continuation much higher. $53, $78, $100, $132 are the profit taking levels assuming we break the range.

Need to close above $21 today.

Uwaga

Welp look like we're not going to get the close today. Let's see what happens Monday. HTF still looks good... just need more momentum. $21 and $30 are the key levels that need to break for a larger move.

The move should play out by the 6th otherwise, I'd lose confidence in this idea.

Uwaga

Alright now over $21. Again, next big level to break is $30. Once over that, we should see a much larger move higher.

Building confidence in the larger move now. We have a flat bottomed green heikin ashi candles now on the 1D, 2D, 1W. Historically UVXY can only have a very large move or top with those candles. Still missing it on the 3D, 4D, and the next dates for those are on the 2nd of Jan.

That's another reason why I don't think we don't top in UVXY until around the 6th or 7th next week.

I do think there's a strong possibility that we end up seeing $78 or $98. I will post when I sell my positions but as of now holding.

I have:
UVXY 01/17/2025 41.00 C
UVXY 01/10/2025 30.00 C
UVXY 01/17/2025 30.00 C
UVXY 02/21/2025 30.00 C
UVXY 01/10/2025 40.00 C
UVXY 01/03/2025 26.00 C

I added the 26C and 40C this morning

Uwaga

Will need to see how we end the day here. Clearly not going to get the top today, but it's an important pivot day. If we can end the week higher, still think the move can play out by next week. There's tons of call volume on UVXY for next week for strikes between $30-60, which is why I'm still in the move. I still think something is coming.

Not selling my call positions or my spot even though the ones for this week may expire worthless.

I still don't like the SPY chart despite this large bounce- we're overbought and at resistance on low timeframes. Just need a catalyst for a reversal

Uwaga

Okay, back above support. If we close in the positive, should be good to see continued upside.

Still think the market is about to unravel sometime between now and 1/14 or so.

Whether we see a massive selloff tomorrow, or tomorrow is the start of the move down is TBD.

Just focus on closing in the green (above 20 would be good, $21 would be great).

Uwaga

Added a large position of 23C for 1/17 and added to my 41Cfor 1/17. It's make or break time.

Uwaga

Remember levels that we should see acceleration:
Above $21
Above $30
Above $38
Above $53

Thinking top = $76-78. If we get above one level, increases the probability we get to the next one.

Still early in the day, so let's see where the day takes us. Timed those buys perfectly this morning right before the move.

Up 80% on the 23C and now back to even on 41C

Uwaga

People have been conditioned to buy the dip in the markets and that every bounce in UVXY gets sold. Think that changes the second half of the day and fear builds.

Uwaga

Closing update:
Great day for positions (23C now up 131% from this morning 41C up 32% --averaged down from my buys in December). UVXY position now down 3% overall, if we see continuation tomorrow, should be very positive.

We got our close above $21 today which should be positive for short term momentum.

Next key levels:
Above $30 should get us to around $38. That's the level I'll be taking profits at.

Plan: I'll likely take profits on my 1/10 positions assuming we get up to those levels this week and leave all of my 1/17 positions open.

Open positions:
UVXY 01/10/2025 30.00 C
UVXY 01/10/2025 40.00 C
UVXY 01/17/2025 23.00 C
UVXY 01/17/2025 30.00 C
UVXY 01/17/2025 41.00 C
UVXY 02/21/2025 30.00 C

Will continue to update as I close out positions.

Uwaga

This morning looking like we could see a bounce in SPY to start the day. If that happens, I think UVXY back to $20.50-$20.70 or so. We should bounce from around that level.

Uwaga

Looks like the bounce is going to come now instead... Still gonna hold.

Uwaga

Closing update: We didn't make it down to the target I thought (which is good) and ended up bouncing at $20.84. We did end up closing down on the day, but we also have 1D and 2D flat bottomed Green Heikin Ashi candles that formed (bullish).

If we get a strong move higher on data on Friday, we're likely to see continuation higher into next week.

My idea is still that we top on Monday or Tuesday now. Holding all of my positions into Friday.

Let's see.

Uwaga

Here's what I'm thinking going into tomorrow. Before every trading day, I look at the charts and try to figure out what the most likely scenario is and also try to think through what idea would go against my positions (so I will be prepared for it and not get scared out of them). Same as what I shared on Tuesday.

I'm thinking that the idea that would go against my positions (and what I currently think is most likely to happen) is to start the day with a positive move post NFP. Why do I think this? Well because short term RSIs are really oversold and if we're going to see a large drop, we need a bounce to reset those RSIs first. Also, I feel like everyone is really bearish on NFP numbers, so it would make sense to have a bullish reaction into the morning to scare the bears and make the bulls think that drop was it.

However, even if we get a number that beats expectations, I think the market will initially interpret that positively, but then realize that the fed isn't going to cut ( x.com/financialjuice/status/1877424697815543890 ) and then react negatively.

So in short, I think we can see a positive initial reaction in the morning in SPY and then selloff later in the day where the real down move starts. I think on the bullish side we could see $591-593 in SPY, then likely selloff hard throughout the day.

Or

The other possibility is that we just sell and have a negative reaction (which would be great for my positions).

Those are my thoughts going into tomorrow. Good luck with the trading day.

Uwaga

Welp looks like straight down it is :).

Makes it easier.

Still thinking Tuesday is the top for UVXY and the bottom for the market. Looking for Spy around $527-530 and UVXY around $76-81. Idea around that can change as price action unfolds but I'll update as I take profit or if ideas change.

Uwaga

We haven't seen vol spike yet because we haven't broken the H&S top. Once $580-579 break and especially if we close below, that's when vol will start to move.

I'm looking for a close below those levels today. We likely won't see a larger move until early next week.

If that happens, my guess is we have a gap down open on Monday.

Uwaga

Welp we got back to the lows but didn't break them. We'll have to see what happens next week now.

Charts still look good for the thesis to me, but we'll have to see if we get a catalyst over the weekend that spooks markets into early next week.

Uwaga

So far, so good. Let's see how low the market goes throughout the day. Still think tomorrow will likely be the top for UVXY and bottom for SPY.

Uwaga

This should be the bottom for the day around $23.25. Not sure how high we get tomorrow now, thought we'd see a bigger move today. Think we're moving sideways/down to prepare for a larger move.

We may only make it to my original target of $53 on a spike tomorrow, let's see though. Will have a better idea tomorrow what the possibilities are.

Uwaga

Even though we went lower than anticipated today, doesn't change my outlook for the rest of the week. We have flat bottomed Heikin ashi green candles on every timeframe above the 1D now. We need those for a bigger move/top to form.

I can see a scenario where we get a move into Thursday or we may top tomorrow like I had originally anticipated. Regardless, if we get a big move tomorrow, I'll be taking profits.

Will post when I start to exit.

Uwaga

Good morning. Initial reaction to PPI was positive for , but rates and the dollar now look like they're bouncing higher, which I don't think will be good for the market. UVXY also now bouncing from it's initial low reaction.

Let's see what happens with price action throughout the day. If we don't see a move higher in UVXY today, I'll likely close out my positions.

If we do see a move higher, then I'll let you know where I'm taking profits.

Uwaga

Looking like this is the beginning of the reversal. Fed speaker right now, let's see if that brings in more bearishness or not. SPY going red would be a good signal, then breaking yesterday's lows.

Again, rates still moving higher and dollar higher too. You'd expect the opposite if we were truly bullish here.

Could be wrong still, but interested in seeing how price trades the rest of the day.

Uwaga

Alright now almost red on the day. NVDA falling quickly and bringing down the index with it.

Uwaga

Step 1: Turn red on the day (check)
Step 2: Break the low at $574 (pending), this will cause a massive vol spike if it happens
Step 3: Profit (pending)

Uwaga

now almost back to positive on the day.

breaking $580 was the warning to the longs, if we can see continuation here and break the $575-574 level, selling intensifies.

Still not sure if the entire move will play out today, if it does. It could go into CPI tomorrow or into Thursday. Just depends how much selling we get this second half of the day.

Will keep updating as I see price action play out.

Uwaga

Honestly coin flip for which way we end the day at this point.

I'm conflicted because the charts still show that SPY should have downside from here and the RSIs are bottomed on UVXY which still makes me think we'll see a big move higher in volatility.

If we don't get a large move down by EOD I'll likely take profits on my NVDA shorts (+500%) and UVXY (+20%) and leave all of the rest of my positions open as runners incase we see a large down move tomorrow into CPI. Just want to reduce exposure to shorts.

Uwaga

Ended up selling my NVDA, holding all of my UVXY as of now.

Uwaga

I've decided I'm going to keep holding my and the rest of my UVXY. The reasoning is because I've seen a lot of bearish flow coming in on options for this week. There's a ton of UVXY calls still open for 1/17 expiration with really high strike prices.

Many equity charts still look bearish to me. I took some off the table with my NVDA puts that I can trade w/ if things go against me tomorrow. Pivot days can be off +1/-1 day, or it can mark the high before a new low.

I know it's risky to take the gamble here, but my gut and all of the signs are telling me to hold (which I normally wouldn't do w/ this much risk in a trade).

Hence why I keep saying do what you feel most comfortable w/ because I have different strikes, entries, and risk tolerance, but wanted to let you know my decision.

We shall see what happens tomorrow.

Uwaga

Full transparency, I ended up selling 47/100 contracts of my 23C for 1/17 on that big bounce for 115% gain. It doesn't change my outlook for tomorrow. I just wanted to derisk a bit because I have a massive position still open with higher strikes. Any slight move higher in UVXY the 23C should offset losses in the higher strikes.

If we get a large move on CPI then everything has the chance to hit, but now I have a decent amount of cash incase the move goes against me.

Uwaga

Likely going to add back in the first 15 minutes of trading. My guess would be that this initial bullish reaction gets faded. I'm still thinking there's too much bearish flow at low strikes (570-580) in Spy and high strikes in UVXY (40-50) for 1/17 for me to believe that we keep running here.

The charts also look extended. I could be wrong in my interpretation of things, but let's see.

Uwaga

Ended up buying 130 SPY 570P for 1/17 and 150 UVXY 25C for 1/17. Either going to be very right or very wrong

Uwaga

Also bought my 50 UVXY 23C back. Just used half of my profits from yesterday. Going to keep the rest of the cash

Uwaga

Ended up buying some 0DTE 592P at $1.68 here

Uwaga

Think we should see a reversal within the next 2 hrs. Let's see.

Uwaga

Just so you see what I'm looking at, we have a spinning top that already completed on the 45 min chart, and now it's also formed one on the 90 minute chart. Price is also way outside of the top of the bollinger bands on ltfs.

Usually that indicates you're going to get a snap back in the other direction. Hence why I took the 0DTE for today at 592. Now just need to see continuation now that we're below that level.

Uwaga

Update: 592P went in the money right after I posted.

In terms of the UVXY positions, it's a complete tossup whether this trade works or not before Friday at this point.

Most equity charts still look bearish to me. We just formed daily lower highs on many charts. If we can move down and break the lows, then this trade works (we'll probably need some news or data for this to happen). SPY would need to trade above $600 for me to turn bullish again.

We'll have to see what the rest of the week brings.

Uwaga

Today is going to be pivotal for the bull/bear case. Again, not sure if we'll see a large move play out today and tomorrow or not, but I did relook at my chart above and there is a pivot on the 15th that I didn't notice before. That should mark a low and usually we see a move shortly after.

If it doesn't play out this week, I do think that a move is likely to play out in the next 2-4 weeks. I still have my options for 2/21 that should cover losses for the shorter date ones if it doesn't play out.

Let's see.

Uwaga

Ended up buying 100 contracts of 30C for 2/21 and 35 for 25C for 1/31.

Lets see if a move plays out before then. Again, could be wrong in my view that we see weakness here, but everything on the chart tells me it's coming unless we can see SPY over $600.

Uwaga

So far, so good. Up 10% on both positions. Let's see what the next couple of weeks brings.

The reason I took the trade is because I went over the charts all day yesterday trying to figure out where the thesis was wrong and I couldn't find a good reason. Volume increasing, we broke out on OBV yet price hasn't broken out yet, on ichi the moving averages are pointing up on a weekly indicating price should follow, and all of the equities charts, despite having a bounce, are still below resistance.

We shall see if the thesis is correct or not.

Uwaga

Going to exit the calls tomorrow. Think it's likely the market bounces higher until February. I'll look for this trade again towards the end of the month.

Uwaga

I think tomorrow we should see a big move down in SPY, but that will be the move to sell the UVXY calls. Then going to flip my bias long in SPY up to $614 or so.

Don't think this volatility trade works until after Feb 7th. I'll create a new chart and position updates around then.

Uwaga

Alright update to this idea. I think we'll likely see a gap down open in UVXY, we could go down to $16.84- $17.05 or so. Then we should see a move up to about $25.50-25.70, I think that move likely plays out by the end of this week but it could also take until early next week to play out. Then that should be the move to sell once we're in that $25 range.

All of the options that I bought last week 25C 1/31 and 30C for Feb should be up pretty substantially if we get that move. I want to sell that area and then wait until later February to get back into a position to see $50+.

Uwaga

Think it's most likely that we see $20.21-21.30 or so this week, then we likely see new lows between $16.85-17.05, then we see $25 next week. At the $25 range I'll exit all of my longs.

Uwaga

I don't really see a drop happening today in SPY based on this price action. I might add some for 1/31 before close today but should largely just chop around all day.

i could see UVXY going down to 17.70s-17.80s and that would be a good spot to add. Also might be the short term bottom too.

Uwaga

Alright I think the bottom is in. Should get a reversal today.

Ended up adding some here for 1/31.

Let's see if we get a move next week. Again, not expecting a huge move, just one to about $25-26. I'll likely sell my entire position if we get it and then reposition long equities for the next 2-4 weeks.

Uwaga

I do think next week will be positive for UVXY, it's just a question of how positive.

There's two scenarios I see looking at the charts. I could see us having a big move down and the market bottoming on Friday 1/31 or Feb 3, then a rally from there onwards into June.

The other possibility and the one that I've been leaning towards is to have a smaller move next week, then seeing SPY move positively into Feb 14th or so and then have the real UVXY move take place between Feb 18th and March 10th or so.

As of now, it's a complete tossup just going to wait and see how price action plays out but entertaining both ideas.

Uwaga

Alright, we're finally seeing the large move I was expecting. I'm still thinking SPY can make it's way down to between $580-588, which should equal UVXY making it up to around $24.79-26.32. I think that'll be the end of this short term move. I'll likely sell my options there as I want to reposition w/ longer expirations.

Thinking that we'll see one final last gasp push up in indexes and stocks into early February, then after that the real move in UVXY comes.

While I think that my 2/21 options may be safe to get the real move, I just want to have more time on my side incase I get my timing wrong. Will likely buy options again out to March 7.

Uwaga

It's also possible UVXY could make it up to the $27-29 range. Just wanted to throw that out as another possibility.

Uwaga

Being patient. Just now seeing UVXY start to bounce. I haven't sold anything yet. Waiting for my targets.

Uwaga

Think we'll likely see the continuation tomorrow, not today. If we don't then I'll have to reassess

Uwaga

I'm debating whether to sell my UVXY position for 2/21 because after looking at the chart again, I think the entire move up could play out by then. May just add some later expiries w/ gains from 1/31. TBD.

7 dni temu

Uwaga

Honestly have no directional bias here in the short term. Just going to watch the price action. It's possible that was the only move we get this week and also possible that we go to the targets that I mentioned yesterday. I bought some calls in NVDA incase the market decides to bounce.

7 dni temu

Uwaga

Leaning towards more downside here. Got out of my short term calls (21s at even, 25 debating selling at a loss), will leave the calls for 2/21.

Going to make a new chart later this week. Last time I update this one.

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