The strong thrust in Oil has caught many traders off guard, that's the reality. Shorts have been punished in this rally. With that said, the close on Friday 18th however may show a possible reversal is about to take place. You'll see that price hit, pulled back and closed under a 2014 trendline. If the Bearish Shark doesn't play out next week (ideal targets marked in blue), I believe we're heading to the next 200MA region (lower white line is WMA, higher SMA).
Now comes the interesting part. I have inserted reference range's of recent price action which both show confluence to the 43.46 price vicinity. This is actually also where the 141.40% extension of the XC leg sits. In addition to this and coincidentally, this is also where the 78.6% fib extension on the weekly from the June '14 top sits. And just when you thought there was no more, there's a weekly trendline bottom running through this area. Not an exact science but there's certainly a tonne of overhead confluence at this level, amongst prior resistance, too much to ignore. This in my view is a strong reversal zone if we don't go down from here.
The line in the sand is the 45 to 46 area, which would ultimately bring an overextended Wave 5. I would not be surprised if they take it there. Be prepared for anything in these markets.
Now comes the interesting part. I have inserted reference range's of recent price action which both show confluence to the 43.46 price vicinity. This is actually also where the 141.40% extension of the XC leg sits. In addition to this and coincidentally, this is also where the 78.6% fib extension on the weekly from the June '14 top sits. And just when you thought there was no more, there's a weekly trendline bottom running through this area. Not an exact science but there's certainly a tonne of overhead confluence at this level, amongst prior resistance, too much to ignore. This in my view is a strong reversal zone if we don't go down from here.
The line in the sand is the 45 to 46 area, which would ultimately bring an overextended Wave 5. I would not be surprised if they take it there. Be prepared for anything in these markets.