Technical analysis of USD/JPY trend, downside risks may increase
Hi traders, Recently, Japan released a strong GDP data, showing the resilience of Japan's economic recovery and increasing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The strong GDP data not only boosted the short-term trend of the yen, but also consolidated the market's confidence in the fundamentals of the Japanese economy. In addition, the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan is gradually narrowing, further boosting demand for the yen.
At the same time, the US dollar is generally dragged down by market selling sentiment, and the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently hovering around the 151.80 area, and even hit a nearly 5-day low during the Asian trading session on Monday (February 17). Although the market is concerned that the reciprocal tariff policy implemented by US President Trump may have a certain impact on market sentiment, the overall fundamentals still favor yen bulls. However, although there are bullish factors for the yen on the fundamentals, the US dollar also has some positive support, and the current market is at a critical node where long and short forces are intertwined.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From a technical point of view, USD/JPY is currently in a key area of long and short game. The current exchange rate fluctuates around 151.80, and the market shows a volatile consolidation trend in the short term, but the overall downward pressure is still obvious.
From the support level, the 151.45-151.40 area is regarded as the first key support in the near future. This range is not only a continuation of the previous low, but also has a strong psychological support effect. If the support strength in this area is insufficient, the market is likely to further drop to the 150.95-150.90 area, which is the low area touched at the beginning of this month. In terms of technical graphics, both the daily and 4-hour charts show that after stabilizing near this area many times, there have been repeated declines, indicating that the short-selling force still has the upper hand.
Further observing the oscillator indicators, many oscillator indicators on the daily chart remain in the negative range, showing that the overall selling momentum of the market continues. Although there was a short-term buying when the price approached the support, it failed to form an effective absorption, but the downward trend continued. If the support level is continued to be broken, follow-up selling may trigger a short chain reaction, pushing the exchange rate to a lower area quickly.
From the perspective of the target, if the price breaks through the 151.45-151.40 area, the next target will be the 150.95-150.90 area, and then the decline may extend to the important psychological level of 150.00, and then test the 149.60-149.55 area, the 149.00 integer, and the 148.65 area near the swing low in December 2024. The distribution of key lows shows that the market has a clear downward path, and the short-selling force is expected to further lower the exchange rate with the loss of key support levels.
On the upside, if the USD/JPY tries to rebound and break through the 152.00 level, it will face obvious resistance. The primary resistance is in the 152.70 area, which is exactly where the 200-day moving average is located, and the long-term moving average often has a strong interception effect. Following closely is the 100-day moving average, which is currently roughly in the 153.15 area. Once this moving average is effectively broken, the market may see short-covering, driving a rapid rebound in the exchange rate in the short term. The rebound trend is expected to push USD/JPY above the 154.00 mark and further impact 154.45-154.50, and may eventually test the 154.75-154.80 area near last week's swing high.
Overall, USD/JPY is currently at a critical watershed in the battle between longs and shorts from a technical perspective. The current shock consolidation combined with negative oscillator indicators shows obvious downside risks; once the key support level is lost, the short trend may expand rapidly, catalyzing the market into a deep adjustment phase. On the contrary, if the upper resistance can be broken in the short term, it is expected to trigger short-covering and form a short-term rebound.
Mr. Baker
At the same time, the US dollar is generally dragged down by market selling sentiment, and the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently hovering around the 151.80 area, and even hit a nearly 5-day low during the Asian trading session on Monday (February 17). Although the market is concerned that the reciprocal tariff policy implemented by US President Trump may have a certain impact on market sentiment, the overall fundamentals still favor yen bulls. However, although there are bullish factors for the yen on the fundamentals, the US dollar also has some positive support, and the current market is at a critical node where long and short forces are intertwined.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From a technical point of view, USD/JPY is currently in a key area of long and short game. The current exchange rate fluctuates around 151.80, and the market shows a volatile consolidation trend in the short term, but the overall downward pressure is still obvious.
From the support level, the 151.45-151.40 area is regarded as the first key support in the near future. This range is not only a continuation of the previous low, but also has a strong psychological support effect. If the support strength in this area is insufficient, the market is likely to further drop to the 150.95-150.90 area, which is the low area touched at the beginning of this month. In terms of technical graphics, both the daily and 4-hour charts show that after stabilizing near this area many times, there have been repeated declines, indicating that the short-selling force still has the upper hand.
Further observing the oscillator indicators, many oscillator indicators on the daily chart remain in the negative range, showing that the overall selling momentum of the market continues. Although there was a short-term buying when the price approached the support, it failed to form an effective absorption, but the downward trend continued. If the support level is continued to be broken, follow-up selling may trigger a short chain reaction, pushing the exchange rate to a lower area quickly.
From the perspective of the target, if the price breaks through the 151.45-151.40 area, the next target will be the 150.95-150.90 area, and then the decline may extend to the important psychological level of 150.00, and then test the 149.60-149.55 area, the 149.00 integer, and the 148.65 area near the swing low in December 2024. The distribution of key lows shows that the market has a clear downward path, and the short-selling force is expected to further lower the exchange rate with the loss of key support levels.
On the upside, if the USD/JPY tries to rebound and break through the 152.00 level, it will face obvious resistance. The primary resistance is in the 152.70 area, which is exactly where the 200-day moving average is located, and the long-term moving average often has a strong interception effect. Following closely is the 100-day moving average, which is currently roughly in the 153.15 area. Once this moving average is effectively broken, the market may see short-covering, driving a rapid rebound in the exchange rate in the short term. The rebound trend is expected to push USD/JPY above the 154.00 mark and further impact 154.45-154.50, and may eventually test the 154.75-154.80 area near last week's swing high.
Overall, USD/JPY is currently at a critical watershed in the battle between longs and shorts from a technical perspective. The current shock consolidation combined with negative oscillator indicators shows obvious downside risks; once the key support level is lost, the short trend may expand rapidly, catalyzing the market into a deep adjustment phase. On the contrary, if the upper resistance can be broken in the short term, it is expected to trigger short-covering and form a short-term rebound.
Mr. Baker
Uwaga
Very good, I have analyzed a good suggestion
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I have made good profits for three consecutive months, and the members I follow have made profits of more than 500%. If you are interested in my trading plan, you are welcome to join the channel for free and contact https://me.https://t.mhttps://t.me/FcCygjylf
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.