Last week’s fall in the US Dollar after the October’s CPI was released has been quite rapid. Add in hawkish comments from the SNB’s Jordan, and it’s a recipe for USD/CHF to head lower. Indeed, the pair did move from a local high of 1.0147 down to 0.9398 in just three days.
Is it time for USD/CHF to bounce? Notice the RSI in the bottom panel of the chart. It is clearly in oversold territory and diverging from price. This is a signal that price may correct or even reverse soon.
Buyers will look to enter near 0.9400/0.9420 and place a stop under the August 11th low of 0.9371. Traders can use Fibonacci retracements from the recent high to the August 11th low to give a more conservative target. First target is 0.9667, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 50% retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level above there are at 0.9759 and 0.9851, respectively.
If price reaches each target, traders can use trailing stops to guard against losses.