Autumn 2022
2 plans for autumn 2022
1. IF OIL PRICE GOES DOWN CONSISTENTLY
This depends on the war of Ukraina - Russia + China economic situation. If then, DBC would decrease -> Inflation would be cooled down.
In this situation, the possibility of FED raising a great rate in next Sept would be low, provided that market price slows down as current.
However, FED would still at least maintain this current rate.
Then what?
Global economy is entering deflation stage, so JPY or gold would be good shelter assets.
Currency which having great drop in value would be GBP and EUR.
There for a short for EUR/JPY and GBP/CAD would be my option.
2. IF OIL PRICE GOES UP
DBS would surely surge, inflation rise again and FED has no choice but to increase its rate,
USD value goes up, goods down.
Then a vote for long order of USD/AUD and USD/CAD
1. IF OIL PRICE GOES DOWN CONSISTENTLY
This depends on the war of Ukraina - Russia + China economic situation. If then, DBC would decrease -> Inflation would be cooled down.
In this situation, the possibility of FED raising a great rate in next Sept would be low, provided that market price slows down as current.
However, FED would still at least maintain this current rate.
Then what?
Global economy is entering deflation stage, so JPY or gold would be good shelter assets.
Currency which having great drop in value would be GBP and EUR.
There for a short for EUR/JPY and GBP/CAD would be my option.
2. IF OIL PRICE GOES UP
DBS would surely surge, inflation rise again and FED has no choice but to increase its rate,
USD value goes up, goods down.
Then a vote for long order of USD/AUD and USD/CAD
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