ULTA has been dodging fate for too long, anytime its indicated shorting opp. in 2022 it somehow finds new legs and treads higher. In my charts I use colors in accordance with their interpretation, so I didn't mean to paint this red it just only warranted red drawings, glamour stain tears goes with the pearls.. anyway:
- Nasty expanding triangle with Distribution, earnings as a catalyst to finally tank this (it needs a healthy pullback to continue growth over the years, good company, ugly chart)
- Bearish Harmonic more noticeable on the daily that indicates potential for pre-earnings run up to low 400s (around 410-413).. This would be ideal entry point for short position, looking at December puts
- Very similar setup to ULTA earnings in August 2019 (if you aren't familiar with its chart here is what happened: gap down from 330 to 230 on Earnings miss; this has seasonality based on the business and August report generally under-performs, especially when at reversal point w.r.t. chart structure, such as currently)
Expectations:
* Gap down following Earnings August 25th to the 295-330 range, followed by dead-cat bounce and continued downside
** Minimum Downside target by December 2022 is 223
*** If things get nasty it could get hit to 67 but I wouldn't bank on this because it will squeeze at some point after 223
#NFA
- Nasty expanding triangle with Distribution, earnings as a catalyst to finally tank this (it needs a healthy pullback to continue growth over the years, good company, ugly chart)
- Bearish Harmonic more noticeable on the daily that indicates potential for pre-earnings run up to low 400s (around 410-413).. This would be ideal entry point for short position, looking at December puts
- Very similar setup to ULTA earnings in August 2019 (if you aren't familiar with its chart here is what happened: gap down from 330 to 230 on Earnings miss; this has seasonality based on the business and August report generally under-performs, especially when at reversal point w.r.t. chart structure, such as currently)
Expectations:
* Gap down following Earnings August 25th to the 295-330 range, followed by dead-cat bounce and continued downside
** Minimum Downside target by December 2022 is 223
*** If things get nasty it could get hit to 67 but I wouldn't bank on this because it will squeeze at some point after 223
#NFA