oil midterm outlook

i have been changing my mind concerning oil over the last days and weeks.
i did expect a rebound from the mid-june lows,
but first i didnt expect the drop to be so deep, and second i didnt expect the following very choppy price action.
both seem to me to be a sign of an intermediate turning point (to the upside from here)

note that the weekly macd is about to create a bullish crossover,
i do think this is even a little clearer on the producer side--etf XOP ....

i do not think this is very logic, and i do not see alot of bullish comments, this is also a good sign i think..:)

so my plan is not to close my longs when we reach the top of the downtrend-channel, i will rather keep moving my stops and see how far this goes..


best trading!