Tesla | Energy, Ai & Cybertrucks
Tesla is one of the most promising company in the car industry
Tesla's deliveries increased by 40% in 2022, and the company is on track to increase deliveries by another 37% this year. plus, Tesla has incredible, new, market leading products coming online soon, including the long-awaited Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi. Also, Tesla's energy generation and storage business is taking off, and sales should continue soaring as its EG&S segment continues expanding.
Moreover Tesla is pioneering the artificial intelligence space, incorporating AI with its electric vehicles , increasing its lead over the competition, and cementing its place as the preeminent leader in the auto industry. Despite Tesla's valuation, its stock should continue garnering robust demand as Tesla's growth should continue eclipsing other automakers. Moreover, Tesla's profitability should continue improving and could increase considerably as the economy exits the transitory slowdown phase, moving into the new AI-propelled era.
Tesla recently announced its Q3 production and deliveries. It produced 430,488 vehicles in the quarter, delivering 435,059 in this time. While this illustrates a minor decline from last quarter's deliveries of 466,140 vehicles, Tesla reiterated its target of delivering approximately 1.8 million cars for the full year. The sequential decrease in production and deliveries was due to planned downtime in Tesla factories. Tesla has delivered more than 1.37 million in the first three quarters of 2023 and should eclipse the 1.8 million delivery mark as it will likely deliver more than 430,000 vehicles in Q4 to end the year. The increase to 1.8 million deliveries in 2023 will be about a 37% increase over last year's delivery numbers.
Tesla delivered 15,985 Model S/X vehicles and 419,074 Model Y/3s. If we subtract the 8% for leasing vehicles in the Model S/X segment, we have about 14,706 Model S/Xs sold. Also, if we remove the 4% for lease accounting in the Model Y/3 segment, we have around 402,311 Model 3/Ys sold in Q3. Applying an ASP of about $44,000 in the Model 3/Y segment and around $110,000 in the Model S/X space provides a vehicle sales estimate of $1.62 billion (Model S/X space) and $17.7 billion (Model 3/Y segment). Combined automotive sales could be around $19.3 billion in Q3.
While my revenue estimate is around the consensus sales figure, profitability may be better than anticipated in Q3. Tesla has approximately 3.171 billion outstanding shares. Consensus estimates suggest an EPS of around 76 cents in the third quarter. This dynamic implies a net income of about $2.41 billion or a net income margin of approximately 9.9%.
Last quarter, Tesla delivered 91 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate by 10 cents, approximately a 12.35% beat rate. Also, last quarter's net income margin was about 10.8%. If Tesla achieves a 10.8% income margin in the third quarter, its net income will be about $2.64 billion, amounting to about 83 cents per share, a beat rate of about 9%. Therefore, Tesla could surpass the beaten-down consensus estimate EPS figures, a positive dynamic for its stock.
We've waited a long time for the Cybertruck, and it should be available for customers in early 2024. The Cybertruck could account for approximately $8 billion in annual revenues. Thus, we could see 2024/2025 revenues increase more than the consensus estimates suggest. The Tesla Semi is in production, and deliveries are on their way. However, mass production revenues should filter down to the bottom line in 2024 and further years. The Tesla Semi offers remarkable performance and could contribute around $12.5 billion in annual revenues in the next few years.
Have you looked at Tesla's EG&S business lately? Last quarter. EG&S contributed$1.51 billion in revenues, approximately an 83% YoY revenue surge. EG&S 2023 H1 revenues surged by 105% over H1 2022. Tesla's Megapack massive energy storage is in high demand, and sales should continue to increase.Tesla has been perfecting its AI program for years. Tesla is developing robotics, full self-driving ("FSD") chips, Dojo chips, neural networks, and more. Moreover, Tesla should benefit immensely from the future robotaxi concept. This segment is expected to grow from essentially nothing to a $45 billion industry in several years. Tesla is pioneering the AI revolution and should benefit immensely in the coming years.
Tesla chart looks bullish and ready to hit higher targets like 270 and 280$
Tesla's deliveries increased by 40% in 2022, and the company is on track to increase deliveries by another 37% this year. plus, Tesla has incredible, new, market leading products coming online soon, including the long-awaited Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi. Also, Tesla's energy generation and storage business is taking off, and sales should continue soaring as its EG&S segment continues expanding.
Moreover Tesla is pioneering the artificial intelligence space, incorporating AI with its electric vehicles , increasing its lead over the competition, and cementing its place as the preeminent leader in the auto industry. Despite Tesla's valuation, its stock should continue garnering robust demand as Tesla's growth should continue eclipsing other automakers. Moreover, Tesla's profitability should continue improving and could increase considerably as the economy exits the transitory slowdown phase, moving into the new AI-propelled era.
Tesla recently announced its Q3 production and deliveries. It produced 430,488 vehicles in the quarter, delivering 435,059 in this time. While this illustrates a minor decline from last quarter's deliveries of 466,140 vehicles, Tesla reiterated its target of delivering approximately 1.8 million cars for the full year. The sequential decrease in production and deliveries was due to planned downtime in Tesla factories. Tesla has delivered more than 1.37 million in the first three quarters of 2023 and should eclipse the 1.8 million delivery mark as it will likely deliver more than 430,000 vehicles in Q4 to end the year. The increase to 1.8 million deliveries in 2023 will be about a 37% increase over last year's delivery numbers.
Tesla delivered 15,985 Model S/X vehicles and 419,074 Model Y/3s. If we subtract the 8% for leasing vehicles in the Model S/X segment, we have about 14,706 Model S/Xs sold. Also, if we remove the 4% for lease accounting in the Model Y/3 segment, we have around 402,311 Model 3/Ys sold in Q3. Applying an ASP of about $44,000 in the Model 3/Y segment and around $110,000 in the Model S/X space provides a vehicle sales estimate of $1.62 billion (Model S/X space) and $17.7 billion (Model 3/Y segment). Combined automotive sales could be around $19.3 billion in Q3.
While my revenue estimate is around the consensus sales figure, profitability may be better than anticipated in Q3. Tesla has approximately 3.171 billion outstanding shares. Consensus estimates suggest an EPS of around 76 cents in the third quarter. This dynamic implies a net income of about $2.41 billion or a net income margin of approximately 9.9%.
Last quarter, Tesla delivered 91 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate by 10 cents, approximately a 12.35% beat rate. Also, last quarter's net income margin was about 10.8%. If Tesla achieves a 10.8% income margin in the third quarter, its net income will be about $2.64 billion, amounting to about 83 cents per share, a beat rate of about 9%. Therefore, Tesla could surpass the beaten-down consensus estimate EPS figures, a positive dynamic for its stock.
We've waited a long time for the Cybertruck, and it should be available for customers in early 2024. The Cybertruck could account for approximately $8 billion in annual revenues. Thus, we could see 2024/2025 revenues increase more than the consensus estimates suggest. The Tesla Semi is in production, and deliveries are on their way. However, mass production revenues should filter down to the bottom line in 2024 and further years. The Tesla Semi offers remarkable performance and could contribute around $12.5 billion in annual revenues in the next few years.
Have you looked at Tesla's EG&S business lately? Last quarter. EG&S contributed$1.51 billion in revenues, approximately an 83% YoY revenue surge. EG&S 2023 H1 revenues surged by 105% over H1 2022. Tesla's Megapack massive energy storage is in high demand, and sales should continue to increase.Tesla has been perfecting its AI program for years. Tesla is developing robotics, full self-driving ("FSD") chips, Dojo chips, neural networks, and more. Moreover, Tesla should benefit immensely from the future robotaxi concept. This segment is expected to grow from essentially nothing to a $45 billion industry in several years. Tesla is pioneering the AI revolution and should benefit immensely in the coming years.
Tesla chart looks bullish and ready to hit higher targets like 270 and 280$
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