Possible down move, but need to test ST first...

28 wrz

OK I'll try again... down we go?

So if you saw my other post(s), after we cleared 235 I realised I got where we were wrong in the pattern - I got out when it hit 235 and have just been waiting on the side lines for my next move, but I'm back in as of next week.

It looks like we are hitting this 260-270 range, and we should be looking to go short really soon.

We're about to hit 0.618 on the fib extension + number of resistance areas + triggers coming up in following trading days.

I think 220 range ideally (hitting 0.5 fib) for this move down (230 would be a safe one though).

Here's an example of some previous uptrends, and you can see the similarities in the structure we're currently looking at.



It can push a little longer along the white resistance line (like at the red arrow + channel example), so this could see it keep trickle up, but we're in the right area at this point IMO, and it could be something coming up on this weeks calendar.

We’ve also got on multiple VWAP anchor periods, we’re firmly in resistance on pretty much every level - If we don’t start dropping out Monday, Tuesday almost undoubtedly? But let’s not focus on time scales.



Whatever the case, there's too much going on around this 260-270 range for it not to ping down, even if for a quick play - could be totally wrong on all this, but I'll do some more updates in the coming week.

Let me know your thoughts.

29 wrz

Uwaga

RULES OF TSLA RISING WEDGE [as per my method anyway]:

Firstly, there's more explaining to what I've done here to get to these wedges, but for simplicity, I want to just highlight the fractal similarities.

Here are 2 fractals inside of each other. When I use 1-8 (or 1-7 in this case for now), it's just to help make it easy to follow where I am referring to in the corresponding rising wedge, but it is the same for all rising wedge patterns you find in TSLA no matter the size/timeframe, which I'm trying to demonstrate.

1 to 2 = usually the same size as 3 to 4 (not exactly, but very much enough to make a good trade typically).

4 = always comes outside of the wedge.

5 = always lines up with the resistance of the consolidation found at 2 to 3 (which I've highlighted with the pink line)

5 to 6 = usually about the same size as both 2 to 3 and 3 to 4.

Sometimes, 5 to 8 is the same size as both 2 to 3 and 3 to 4.

5 = usually falls outside of the support of the rising wedge.

So as you can see with the following chart below, all of the rules so far above, apply.



We already have 6 to 7 on the larger pattern with RED numbers, so with the GREEN numbers, we still have to complete 6 to 7, which would be just a copy cat inside the smaller rising wedge.

So with that, I would conclude that 6 to 7 would be a fall out to around 230 comfortably and possibly 220?

Both 230 and 220 answer to TSLA's usual "sweet spot" for a pullback + still could maintain the structure of the rising wedge - it's dependent on how quickly it gets down to hit the wedges support.

This here is a 4hr chart so it will be a lot easier to count through (which I will do at some point).

Hope this is making sense - probably muddled/contradicted myself somewhere, so call me out for it and I'll explain what I actually meant :P

p.s. I skipped on explaining 7 to 8 properly, but another time when it’s relevant as I think we have some dipping to do this week first.

29 wrz

Uwaga

Couple more examples found elsewhere on the chart that backup the above of what I'm rattling on about during uptrends.

29 wrz

Uwaga

One more here too (the one on left is same as one on the right above)



Will do some more explanations in the week, but fire any questions if something doesn't make sense.

30 wrz

Zlecenie aktywne

Let's see what a short position will do.

Entered SHORT 262 in pre market.

30 wrz

Uwaga

Just as we come up to market open, on the 1m, it looks like a possible bearish megaphone?

So we could end up going up one more time at open before dropping out, so if you're day trading your way into this, 255 range could be a good move to reverse on this and then start again back up at 260 range (which would also close the gap).

30 wrz

Uwaga

So I was convinced that the drop out at 260 was the beginning of the fall out but the strong move back up to the 260 range has made me cautious.

As it hit back up to 258, I hedged my position.

I will do an update hopefully in the next 24hrs to explain exactly why, but the quick answer would be that we may not actually have reached the peak today at 264 and we have OMH to go.

A real confirmation of downside would be a break of 251.

30 wrz

Uwaga

I was considering closing my long hedge position, but for now think I'll hold on to it into tomorrow until we have some more data.

We've got PMI tomorrow which may give us some answers.

I thought we'd already arrived at SOW, but that bounce back up means we're looking something like the example shown below:



With NFP on Friday coming up though, that would make more sense in terms of market volatility - so I suspect if we don't break the next ST, Friday could be the trigger to the downside.

1 paź

Uwaga

On the bigger picture, we're still safely under a ST range, and have yet to be rejected:

1 paź

Uwaga

Closing my long hedge position at 262 and taking the profit for the quick scalp play that it is.

Keeping the short position at 262 which is now at break even.

It could pop a little more, but I'm going to take the risk at this point as I've limited my exposure, and on a bigger picture, it's going down really soon, even if just for the 220-230 range.

1 paź

Uwaga

Here's the current line of thinking from a day trade perspective...



If this punches down below the red line again, I'm going to be considering to get a long position for the final ST (at least I think it will be the last one for now). If that rejects, everything after that is just noise IMO - much like I think yesterday's market open volatility was just noise (highlighted with green circle).

With PMI at 10am NY time, we could see the drop out until then, and then PMI results are good so we see a sharp move to the upside?

I am in favour of it falling before popping, but we shall see.

Let me know if I've perhaps missed something.

1 paź

Uwaga

We hit 258 (0.5 fib) which is my target to open a long hedge position (which I've now done) so hopefully this is the last run up before we come down properly to complete this small time frame distribution.

1 paź

Uwaga

Like anytime, this could keep coming down - next stop would be to head for the 0.618 fib, but I'm content with this play for now (until I'm not, but we'll get to that when it happens)

1 paź

Uwaga

OK so I think the news was the Israel war?

It dropped a LOT lower than I anticipated. I closed my short position, and going to let this long position run back up, as I don't think this pattern has finished and this is just a fakeout due to the news.

Will update if/when I can.

1 paź

Uwaga

I could be wrong on this, but similar thing happened when Russia announced the war on Ukraine, and then the chart recovered to the usual pattern. The same way charts recover after market open volatility.

So I'm going to run with this idea for now and see what happens.

The drop out could hold until tomorrow, but you can see on the example chart in the corner below that after the drop (that I expected to follow the orange arrow) it bounces back very quickly to the upside.

This is a 15m chart though, so might have to be patient on this one.

This drop out (pink arrow) is just a lot bigger than could have planned for is all I'm thinking for now.

1 paź

Uwaga

I will do some analysis on the "if/when im wrong" scenario, allowing to be prepared for the alternative, but will probably wait for market close (or least ahead of market open) for that to see where we are EOD.

1 paź

Uwaga

So back up at 258 so I'm broke even + with profit from that drop out.

I'm going to hedge this for tonight, because I can see a potential fall to 250 range before heading back up.

I don't imagine it breaking higher than 258 tonight as this would put people on the case that it's going up higher and back inside/above the channel.

Could be wrong, but need to do a proper chart analysis to feel 100% comfortable with all this (and it's my lack of comfort leading me to hedge for now)

That said, my overall thought is that it does go back up, but need to work it out first to be sure.

Anyone with any thoughts, let me know :)

2 paź

Uwaga

OK so I think we're going to 270, and here's my basis.

I did some backtesting of previous reversal points, and when this drops out (like it did yesterday), it always bounces back up twice the height of the first 1-2-3

So my target for today is 270. I've decided to close my short in PM for a quick scalp win, and going to let this 258 position run up.

We've got Q3 deliveries today, which across the board is looking to be a win.

After this, it's down time for 230 range to meet the first of our TSLA "sweet spot" fib supports (orange arrow)

In the previous examples, we are currently at the green arrow:

2 paź

Uwaga

Just to zoom in a little more for clarity, here are the 2 far left examples from above.



It's not an exact science, but it's good enough for me to consider 270 as a target.

Knowing TSLA, it will be somewhere just over (271-272).

2 paź

Uwaga

And here's our current situation zoomed in too.

The 3 white lines = possible peak points for this play. I would like to see at least 265, and then 270 would be my last goal.


2 paź

Uwaga

Here's the start of the 1-8 count as I see it, so I'm expecting the day to run up this channel.

2 paź

Uwaga

Well i got wrecked on that one - back on the right side though (short), looks like we're falling for 230 range

2 paź

Uwaga

Will update what i think happened/where i went wrong when i get a chance, but this could still pop up during the day, so will be playing this very cautiously.

3 paź

Uwaga

OK so yesterday was a lesson learned (or rather, a previous lesson remembered).

Firstly, after-hours + premarket skewed my vision + I for some reason totally overlooked part of the 1-8 count... as you can see from the last chart image i posted, I did 1-5, but actually, i counted 1-2-3 wrong? Not sure why, perhaps was busy/not focused (I'm heavily ADHD so it's a thing).

So I should have counted 4 being 6, and 5 being 7, and then would have worked it out from there the potential drop out.

Either way, I took the hit as Q3 deliveries got released + stupidly bought into the hype of market analyst sentiment and let confirmation bias run things... "oops" comes to mind. I do tend to try to swing trade, but then the excitement of day trading can take over if i'm not concentrating, and yesterday was a prime example of that as I've been preaching that a drop is imminent, then not listening to my own conversation.

Anyway, broader situation remains the same - 230 range for now, with 220 range on the horizon.

Stripping everything back, we can see that there are a few fib retracements to consider.

Yesterday hit 241 (which was a 0.786 retracement on a small time frame) but if we look at this bigger picture, it didn't even quite reach the 0.382 ($240) retracement, so I think that might happen today, followed by some short-term upside.



I'll endeavour to make some other posts supporting this + further show where I went wrong yesterday (visually speaking) for those interested when I get a minute.

But the short of it is that 6 to 7 is a quick move down, so I should have realised that, but onwards and upwards etc. (or downwards should I say, bla bla bla).

Today's target is 255 range, then more continuation to the downside.

3 paź

Uwaga

Be cautious of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - could be something/nothing, but it comes out at 10am NY time.

255 range is the resistance area, but where we are in the pattern doesn't mean it will reach it.



A 6 month VWAP anchor provides confirmation bias for 230 range.

This part of the downward trend pattern is super choppy, so you can hold to 230 (minimum/safe bet), or you can try to day trade this (risky af/high reward).

Market open volatility + consolidation at 249 is giving me confidence to hold a little longer for my idea of 255 range.

Will let it play out unless it makes a strong move towards recent local low of 242.

3 paź

Uwaga

Looks like we have a strong move towards recent lows... a move below local low of 241 would offer confirmation.

240-238 range for today's bottom which would create a spike in to tomorrow.

230 range for the midterm remains the same overarching idea (with possibly lower to 220)

235 for the short-mid term range for a bounce play.

8 paź

Uwaga

230 is still the play for me (with 220 totally possible)- mostly staying out of scalping it tbh on this move down after getting burned last week, and just letting this short position do its thing.

Bounce up to 250 quite possible, but I think tomorrow's big day is going to be part of a "buy the rumour/sell the news" move.

8 paź

Uwaga

So just to draw this up another way, I think the red arrow (far right) is this next several trading days, and we still haven't got down low enough for even hitting one of the bigger time frame fib 0.382 (230 range) (I'm referring to the fib retracement started at 180 to 260).

8 paź

Uwaga

Just made a slightly clearer chart - I want us to hit at least the 0.382 fib before going up for Robotaxi day, but it will still be a "buy the rumour, sell the news" I think.

10 paź

Uwaga

Finally hit my 0.382 fib ($232).

I've closed my SHORT for some good profit, and taken out a LONG position @232.

11 paź

Uwaga

Well i got wrecked on that premarket move for sure. Thought it would drop at market open, but seems smart money made the first move as per.

220 range on the cards, but let's see where today takes us. We've hit 0.5 on the fib, but I'm expecting a little lower still.

Closed my long for a hefty loss at market open - going to sit this one out until market open to see how much further this falls - could well see it drop to 220 range.

Will be a scalp day to see if I can crawl back something.

Will post a chart if I get a minute.

11 paź

Uwaga

Back on LONG at 216. let's see where this takes us...

17 paź

Uwaga

So I think we have reached the end of 6 to 7, so I'm comfortable with keeping this 216 LONG position.

From here - and into earnings, I'm looking for a good move up (but it won't last long and we'll be heading down not long after outside of the channel)

Here's a 4hr chart (plus can see previous uptrend counts 1-to 8 as reference)

17 paź

Uwaga

Still stuck in this 220 range consolidation frustratingly.

But just to show what I'm going on about, here's 2 examples layered on top of the where we currently are, and 7 to 8 has to happen (even if we see some sort of small further drop out from 220 range still, it needs to get back up before really starting to come down).

Really hoping tomorrow is the move up to 230, then I'll be happy because this has been a week of boring for TSLA...

24 paź

Uwaga

New idea started as this one is getting a bit long...