We broke out of our range. Finally.
The market has spoken, and it said "Market too high imo".
But seriously we're finally finding some resolution on where we want to go. Technically we broke the $310/$3100 zone and broke many key support zones on the way down. Knifing through multiple support levels and but stopped short of the key $302 level. Now the focus is back on $300/$3000. Will we test it? Will it hold? Well, we'll find out.
Today was a legitimate reversal/trend change day even if only in sentiment. We saw majority selling and not a lot of dip buyers. Now, this isn't to say that we some big money wasn't stealth buying but from what i could tell there were very few buyers in the market today. Bulls didn't even show up to the game.
Again the news tried to pin whatever rationale to the market move today, that started last night. They blamed it on coronavirus news from Florida but we've had equally as bad coronavirus news all week. You can look at it two different ways. Either the market has selective hearing (which is true) or the market does whatever it wants anyways and the financial media just pins whatever story to whatever market news. You can literally just spin a wheel and come up with a financial news headline usually containing the verbs "plunge", "dropped", "surged" xxx points (insert news here). It's actually pretty comical.
The reality is much more nuanced and the market does trade on news, when it feels like it. Algos trade on news, and that can move the market in either direction. But today looked more technical than anything. You mix in that triple top with the end of the quarter and you have people getting the hell out of positions to preserve P/L for the quarter.
Speaking of technicals.
Yesterday we saw the triple top in SPX, NDX showing an exhaustion move, IWM putting in a weak close on the daily with the RUT printing a shooting star, and DJI with multiple rejections from a moving average. All signs showing "elevator going down". And it actually played out. On the large indexes it's hard to have the signals come in this clean, but i'm not complaining. It's also telling how much of a weak close we had today. I was expecting a face ripping short cover rally that never materialized. This means some big money thinks this isn't over yet.
The real test is going to be the weekly close and whether or not we hold $300/$3000. The market thinks that anything above $3100 is too expensive, and i believe so too with everything that's going on. But remember the market is forward looking. TA just helps with the probabilities. Another key level to break is going to be the daily 200 period MA that we essentially tagged and bounced off of today. The weekly 50 period MA is at $300, the 13 period EMA is at $299, the daily 200 period MA is at $301. If we get a close below these levels it's pretty safe to say we'll see $280 in pretty short order. So it's key the bulls hold these levels. But they have to show up.
5m
1h showing a break down out of the triangle we created on high volume (obviously) and what looks like we printed another bear flag today. But keep in mind especially on tickers like SPY those can be the 5 guys in a room making you feel warm and fuzzy going home short, and then waking up to a 20-30 point gap up the next day and you're snorkeling in red
Daily looking like it wants that gap at $286 as a snack. Note the confluence of supprt lines and moving averages to break. First target is $302-$300, if that breaks $294 would be next. There's a gap at about $296 right before then as well
SPX 5m showing clean technicals and a failed breakout from a triangle. Could have either been a bear pennant or a triangle, and they tried to break out to the upside and ultimately failed. That's bearish
I mean look at that. Triple top, rejection, confirmed reversal. Textbook
If we get below these MA's that's no bueno. We'll see if the $294-$300 zone is still a demand zone here shortly
IWM finally breaking trend, but also closing smack dab on the .382 fib. Fib was at $138.31, we closed at $138.33. Coincidence?
We'll see if it plays out
VIX getting kicked in it's face at it's 100 period MA. But still up 7+%. I'd like to see a close above $35 for me to be a firm believer in the trend
Target for DJI is the top of range around 25,600 - 25,550
NDX - Oof, that looks ugly. A confirmed reversal in tech land as well. Also textbook with the shooting star close yesterday and the pivot candle today. Look how they defended 10k though.
XLFFFFFFFFFf. Leading indicator.. Already breaking down into it's range from last month
DJT at support though, but also had a pretty good work over today -3%
I'm starting to convince myself silver is just the 10 yr upside down
Metals still correlating with stocks. Not good
I'd like to see bonds get above this 139 level in order to cement the trend as well
Island top reversal stronk. $300/$3000 is going to be the new battle ground. If the bulls successfully defend it again i'll probably actually add positive delta. If it fails, we could most likely go to fill the gaps at $296 and $286. Key level if we break back down into the range will be that $280 bogey. So exciting isn't it?!?! Fun stuff.
Hope you all had a good day trading today. Remember, when i say keep your head on a swivel i mean it. The technicals are surpisingly clean, and what does that do? Gets everyone to the same side of the boat. Watch for whipsaws to the dome.
Have a good night!
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
The market has spoken, and it said "Market too high imo".
But seriously we're finally finding some resolution on where we want to go. Technically we broke the $310/$3100 zone and broke many key support zones on the way down. Knifing through multiple support levels and but stopped short of the key $302 level. Now the focus is back on $300/$3000. Will we test it? Will it hold? Well, we'll find out.
Today was a legitimate reversal/trend change day even if only in sentiment. We saw majority selling and not a lot of dip buyers. Now, this isn't to say that we some big money wasn't stealth buying but from what i could tell there were very few buyers in the market today. Bulls didn't even show up to the game.
Again the news tried to pin whatever rationale to the market move today, that started last night. They blamed it on coronavirus news from Florida but we've had equally as bad coronavirus news all week. You can look at it two different ways. Either the market has selective hearing (which is true) or the market does whatever it wants anyways and the financial media just pins whatever story to whatever market news. You can literally just spin a wheel and come up with a financial news headline usually containing the verbs "plunge", "dropped", "surged" xxx points (insert news here). It's actually pretty comical.
The reality is much more nuanced and the market does trade on news, when it feels like it. Algos trade on news, and that can move the market in either direction. But today looked more technical than anything. You mix in that triple top with the end of the quarter and you have people getting the hell out of positions to preserve P/L for the quarter.
Speaking of technicals.
Yesterday we saw the triple top in SPX, NDX showing an exhaustion move, IWM putting in a weak close on the daily with the RUT printing a shooting star, and DJI with multiple rejections from a moving average. All signs showing "elevator going down". And it actually played out. On the large indexes it's hard to have the signals come in this clean, but i'm not complaining. It's also telling how much of a weak close we had today. I was expecting a face ripping short cover rally that never materialized. This means some big money thinks this isn't over yet.
The real test is going to be the weekly close and whether or not we hold $300/$3000. The market thinks that anything above $3100 is too expensive, and i believe so too with everything that's going on. But remember the market is forward looking. TA just helps with the probabilities. Another key level to break is going to be the daily 200 period MA that we essentially tagged and bounced off of today. The weekly 50 period MA is at $300, the 13 period EMA is at $299, the daily 200 period MA is at $301. If we get a close below these levels it's pretty safe to say we'll see $280 in pretty short order. So it's key the bulls hold these levels. But they have to show up.
5m
1h showing a break down out of the triangle we created on high volume (obviously) and what looks like we printed another bear flag today. But keep in mind especially on tickers like SPY those can be the 5 guys in a room making you feel warm and fuzzy going home short, and then waking up to a 20-30 point gap up the next day and you're snorkeling in red
Daily looking like it wants that gap at $286 as a snack. Note the confluence of supprt lines and moving averages to break. First target is $302-$300, if that breaks $294 would be next. There's a gap at about $296 right before then as well
SPX 5m showing clean technicals and a failed breakout from a triangle. Could have either been a bear pennant or a triangle, and they tried to break out to the upside and ultimately failed. That's bearish
I mean look at that. Triple top, rejection, confirmed reversal. Textbook
If we get below these MA's that's no bueno. We'll see if the $294-$300 zone is still a demand zone here shortly
IWM finally breaking trend, but also closing smack dab on the .382 fib. Fib was at $138.31, we closed at $138.33. Coincidence?
We'll see if it plays out
VIX getting kicked in it's face at it's 100 period MA. But still up 7+%. I'd like to see a close above $35 for me to be a firm believer in the trend
Target for DJI is the top of range around 25,600 - 25,550
NDX - Oof, that looks ugly. A confirmed reversal in tech land as well. Also textbook with the shooting star close yesterday and the pivot candle today. Look how they defended 10k though.
XLFFFFFFFFFf. Leading indicator.. Already breaking down into it's range from last month
DJT at support though, but also had a pretty good work over today -3%
I'm starting to convince myself silver is just the 10 yr upside down
Metals still correlating with stocks. Not good
I'd like to see bonds get above this 139 level in order to cement the trend as well
Island top reversal stronk. $300/$3000 is going to be the new battle ground. If the bulls successfully defend it again i'll probably actually add positive delta. If it fails, we could most likely go to fill the gaps at $296 and $286. Key level if we break back down into the range will be that $280 bogey. So exciting isn't it?!?! Fun stuff.
Hope you all had a good day trading today. Remember, when i say keep your head on a swivel i mean it. The technicals are surpisingly clean, and what does that do? Gets everyone to the same side of the boat. Watch for whipsaws to the dome.
Have a good night!
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Komentarz:
Looks like we're going to open right at or right above $302. We'll see if we take that first, and if we do it's all eyes on $300. I wouldn't be surprised to see a consolidation around this level.
Komentarz:
I have a really bad habit of wanting to see H&S everywhere, so take this with a grain of salt, but also keep your eye on it. this is 30m ES.
Komentarz:
Look at where that last 5m closed. $302.04. Lookin like a fight.
Komentarz:
Nice little liquidity trap there 20 or so mins ago. This is notabale to say the least. IWM and XLF leading.
Komentarz:
Banks are going to be in the news today with the annual stress tests. Either looks like short covering or front running. They need to break this resistance at 23.43. Up almost 2% already today.
Komentarz:
Number to watch is this $305.87 level.
Komentarz:
Volume absolutely died the past 20 minutes. Any infusion of volume in either direction will set the tone going into close.
I've been busy the past few nights punching out content and so far i already have a good amount, i feel like i'm writing a book.
So far, and this is subject to change obviously, but i think it was lay out as such:
I'm going to have a daily newsletter much like i do on here. But it will be subscription based. With that the added value will be a more in depth look on the charts and markets and not just a quick skim like i do on here. I will still do a SPY daily update but it will not be as in depth and will not include the full market round up nor my in depth analysis.
I will also be adding that resource page or a "stuff you should know" that will include guides to charting (thinking about having a 1, 2, and 3) a market breakdown, a guide to getting started, market nuances, and much more as i can create it. It'll essentially be everything i've learned over my trading experience that i wish i knew when i was getting started.
I will also do TA upon request for specific tickers if you're a paid member.
What i will not be doing is giving trade signals. I will not have this website be another one of those scumbag skeezy "subscribe now for 10000+% gains!!). I literally can't stand that shit. This will be primarily based on analysis from both a fundamental and technical standpoint. What i will do though is let the users in on my positioning and give recommendations if asked for.
The point is to help newer traders who are trying to get started. But even if you're experienced you may find value in my daily breakdowns and analysis (hopefully). I plan for it to be a community, kind of an extension of how it is here on TV.
With that being said it will be pay walled. If anything just to cover the costs of the website. But i'm thinking of $20 a month for the daily newsletter and haven't decided if the stand alone write ups will be separate. If anything i'm thinking $5-$10 for access to those. I'm not here to get rich off of it, but i do wish to be compensated for my time. At $20 a month that's a $1 per trading day for the newsletter.
I will also most likely be offering a discount to anyone that follows me here to get started. I will also be supplying referral codes and will be offering people 1 month free if someone subscribes using your code.
That's what i have so far. Let me know if you have any feedback. Let me know what you think. Oh yea, it will be called M1904Trading.com.