Blood in every street! Stocks, Bonds, BTC, EEM, Oil, Gold, Comm

7 wrz 2022

Simultaneous 2W Red Bars for all the above*. SPY is in pink so it stands out (by popular request).
This is relatively rare p= 0.028: 11 out of 387 bars since GFC
The chart shows the 11 periods with a yellow vertical line. Each asset is shown independently (upper left) as well as a horde (bottom)

Since the choice of ETF's was neither complete nor systematic, the table (top right) shows the 25 largest
ETF's (out of the 1167 in the list) as measured by 21day VVOLUME (shown in rightmost column)*.
Middle columns show the ETF's return over 1 day (using todays close 9/6/22) and over 5 days.

Lot's of Red.

Hope that's useful, Trade Safe.


Analysis: When the smoke clears and there is time for analysis: What happens after the 11 cases?

Qualitatively, my impression is that volatility (range) stayed high while momentum frequently changed direction (more then I expected)
Also for follow up: when do we (irrationally) expect reversal vs continuation? Positive and negative recency has been studied extensively as the "Gamblers Fallacy" and the "hot hand".






*Notes:

Stocks: SPY
Bonds: TLT
Oil: USO
Commodities: DBC
Emerging Markets: EEM
Gold: GLD
BTC: BITO IS 2W red as well but is also a new ETF so was omitted from the count.

Currency (DXY) appears independently at bottom.

**Table found on etscreen.com on 9/6/22 (link appears under the table). Its purpose is educational only as specified in "Fair use" section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act.