And tell it it's getting written up for a no call no show.
Today was dead. Like really dead. Ded dead. On SPY we only had 66m shares traded vs a 100 day moving average of 156m. That is the third smallest amount since Feb/March.
There were a couple things to note though. Like how we gapped down last night in the futures market, only to claw our way back up to where we closed on Friday in the Asian and European sessions. It's also of note that the bulls REALLY want us to be above $3100. This number is becoming more and more important by the day, and i've yet to figure out exactly why.
Also if you haven't noticed there's a price divergence between the SPX, and SPY. This is due to the ex dividend payout on Friday. There will be about a $1 difference/divergence between SPX and SPY for about another week or two.
But seriously though. Today again was like watching paint dry. I thought with the close we had on Friday we'd at least have some semblance of action today. But boy was i wrong. That leads me to believe a couple things. One of them having to do with volatility, and the VIX.
The other week when we had that massive 5% down move the VIX spiked 50% to over $40, and topping out at $44 a couple days after. Why is this important? Vega. Vega is the greek that either increases or decreases and options underlying price based off the Implied Volatility, or IV. In laymans that huge up move in the VIX made options more expensive. Now you add over a week of essentially no real price movement, and no real volatility we're in the midst of a theta and vega trap. Meaning if you bought options at the end of that down move, or anytime early last week you're losing money just by having the options. Otherwise known as a chop shop. The market has no clear direction right now and without the participation of large institutions we're just here. Existing. And the longer the price stays here, the people who bought calls and puts lose money. Market makers win.
We obviously opened up today with a small gap down, and after the bears feeble attempt to follow through they gave up the ball and the bulls went to fill that gap, and then some. On SPX we went STRAIGHT back to $3100. Gave it up for a second, and then the bulls stubbornly kept us above this level the entire day like a spoiled kid who doesn't want to share his toys. It's not just SPX either. IWM has been fighting over the bottom trend line of it's channel from the bottom the past week or so. They're floating the market.
Tech was the name of the game today and where the only real action was. It seems like people are crowding back into the tech haven trade just in case the economy takes another COVID hit. This is doing nothing besides building bearish divergences.
No clear trend. No discernible patterns. Just a chop shop and a weird affinity toward $310
No difference on the 1h. Chop shop
But on the 4h the bull flag is still intact.. kinda
Daily still with broken trend though. Restesting again today
"No, my $3100" - bulls. Notice where we opened though. Directly on the bottom downtrend from the bullflag/downward channel, also daily support at $3080
The only thing notable about the hourly is that we tried to break out to the upside friday only to be completely faded. Kind of just.. floated around today. Above $3100
We'll see if it wants to take another shot at it though
"Might as well go up" - Market 2020 (ES)
Daily looks like.. I have no idea. Like a teenager who doesn't know what he/she wants to do with their life
Must.. Respect.. Trendline (IWM)
Horrible volume there today too
But VIX with the tea leaves.. bearish engulfing on the daily..
But, XLF? weak
DJT? slightly less weak
DJI looks like it's hanging on by a thread, but respecting it's channel
I mean that's pretty impressive
NDX is like the dude doing arms in the squat rack. But my rounded top thesis is started to look unhealthy
Silver also respecting the trend line, but in a bad way. It looked good this morning, gave it up
And.. Gold? Whatcha doin over there buddy? Goldman unloading their positions on the pop? We'll see. I'd expect a retest of the top trendline, if it holds that's a pretty good long signal
10 yr still neutral but pointing to slightly risk off sentiment
Bottom line? Really isn't any. The market needs to make a choice. Until then just like how it rug pulled and trapped a bunch of people at that most recent top, it's now trapping anyone who tried to trade the obvious zones. The more time it eats off the clock the more traders are caught in a vega/theta trap. This is the reason why i do not trade short dated options. It's the 5 guys in a room plotting to take your lunch money, every time.
Bbands are starting to tighten on the daily. And that's usually a signal of a move incoming one way or the other. We shook off generally bearish news over the weekend to stubbornly trade back to, and close above $3100. That's relative strength. But to me it just looks like a lack of participation.
Website: So, going off of the response i got on Friday i'm going to do it. I'm going to be converting my TV account to a premium account here in the next week or two so i can talk more freely about it. But as of this second it's a green light. I'm really looking forward to it and i honestly really do appreciate the support. Until then i will keep making my daily posts just like i have been. If you have any requests or suggestions for content feel free to reach out.
As always keep your head on a swivel. The market is stalking us for a move somewhere like a predator stalks it's prey. It will most likely be out of nowhere, and explosive when it comes. So stay on your toes. Happy trading!
Today was dead. Like really dead. Ded dead. On SPY we only had 66m shares traded vs a 100 day moving average of 156m. That is the third smallest amount since Feb/March.
There were a couple things to note though. Like how we gapped down last night in the futures market, only to claw our way back up to where we closed on Friday in the Asian and European sessions. It's also of note that the bulls REALLY want us to be above $3100. This number is becoming more and more important by the day, and i've yet to figure out exactly why.
Also if you haven't noticed there's a price divergence between the SPX, and SPY. This is due to the ex dividend payout on Friday. There will be about a $1 difference/divergence between SPX and SPY for about another week or two.
But seriously though. Today again was like watching paint dry. I thought with the close we had on Friday we'd at least have some semblance of action today. But boy was i wrong. That leads me to believe a couple things. One of them having to do with volatility, and the VIX.
The other week when we had that massive 5% down move the VIX spiked 50% to over $40, and topping out at $44 a couple days after. Why is this important? Vega. Vega is the greek that either increases or decreases and options underlying price based off the Implied Volatility, or IV. In laymans that huge up move in the VIX made options more expensive. Now you add over a week of essentially no real price movement, and no real volatility we're in the midst of a theta and vega trap. Meaning if you bought options at the end of that down move, or anytime early last week you're losing money just by having the options. Otherwise known as a chop shop. The market has no clear direction right now and without the participation of large institutions we're just here. Existing. And the longer the price stays here, the people who bought calls and puts lose money. Market makers win.
We obviously opened up today with a small gap down, and after the bears feeble attempt to follow through they gave up the ball and the bulls went to fill that gap, and then some. On SPX we went STRAIGHT back to $3100. Gave it up for a second, and then the bulls stubbornly kept us above this level the entire day like a spoiled kid who doesn't want to share his toys. It's not just SPX either. IWM has been fighting over the bottom trend line of it's channel from the bottom the past week or so. They're floating the market.
Tech was the name of the game today and where the only real action was. It seems like people are crowding back into the tech haven trade just in case the economy takes another COVID hit. This is doing nothing besides building bearish divergences.
No clear trend. No discernible patterns. Just a chop shop and a weird affinity toward $310
No difference on the 1h. Chop shop
But on the 4h the bull flag is still intact.. kinda
Daily still with broken trend though. Restesting again today
"No, my $3100" - bulls. Notice where we opened though. Directly on the bottom downtrend from the bullflag/downward channel, also daily support at $3080
The only thing notable about the hourly is that we tried to break out to the upside friday only to be completely faded. Kind of just.. floated around today. Above $3100
We'll see if it wants to take another shot at it though
"Might as well go up" - Market 2020 (ES)
Daily looks like.. I have no idea. Like a teenager who doesn't know what he/she wants to do with their life
Must.. Respect.. Trendline (IWM)
Horrible volume there today too
But VIX with the tea leaves.. bearish engulfing on the daily..
But, XLF? weak
DJT? slightly less weak
DJI looks like it's hanging on by a thread, but respecting it's channel
I mean that's pretty impressive
NDX is like the dude doing arms in the squat rack. But my rounded top thesis is started to look unhealthy
Silver also respecting the trend line, but in a bad way. It looked good this morning, gave it up
And.. Gold? Whatcha doin over there buddy? Goldman unloading their positions on the pop? We'll see. I'd expect a retest of the top trendline, if it holds that's a pretty good long signal
10 yr still neutral but pointing to slightly risk off sentiment
Bottom line? Really isn't any. The market needs to make a choice. Until then just like how it rug pulled and trapped a bunch of people at that most recent top, it's now trapping anyone who tried to trade the obvious zones. The more time it eats off the clock the more traders are caught in a vega/theta trap. This is the reason why i do not trade short dated options. It's the 5 guys in a room plotting to take your lunch money, every time.
Bbands are starting to tighten on the daily. And that's usually a signal of a move incoming one way or the other. We shook off generally bearish news over the weekend to stubbornly trade back to, and close above $3100. That's relative strength. But to me it just looks like a lack of participation.
Website: So, going off of the response i got on Friday i'm going to do it. I'm going to be converting my TV account to a premium account here in the next week or two so i can talk more freely about it. But as of this second it's a green light. I'm really looking forward to it and i honestly really do appreciate the support. Until then i will keep making my daily posts just like i have been. If you have any requests or suggestions for content feel free to reach out.
As always keep your head on a swivel. The market is stalking us for a move somewhere like a predator stalks it's prey. It will most likely be out of nowhere, and explosive when it comes. So stay on your toes. Happy trading!
Komentarz:
Not really sure what just happened in Asia, but we're seeing about a -30 point 30m candle print right now.
Komentarz:
Navarro just came out saying China trade deal "is over"
Buckle up boys and girls.
Down -32 points as of this point after being up about 12-15
Buckle up boys and girls.
Down -32 points as of this point after being up about 12-15
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
Plunge protection team earning their keep. Almost a full retrace as of right now.
Komentarz:
Apparently it was all a false alarm. "Peter Narvarro clarifies that U.S-China trade deal not over."
If i could post the clown emoji here i would.
www.cnbc.com/2020/06...n-to-close-news.html
If i could post the clown emoji here i would.
www.cnbc.com/2020/06...n-to-close-news.html
Komentarz:
So far this morning i've had the financial media tel me the market is up on vaccine news, trade fears deescalatling, Trade advisor walking back China trade remarks, and just an overnight trade deal scare.
They literally have 0 idea why we're up a full % point
But this will be our FOURTH peek up into this supply zone since we've been in this range. With the market making sure we stayed above $3100, and the pump starting before the trade deal gaffe i think this is going to be their next try at a breakout. But look at the chart every time we get up here. Who will win? Keep in mind we're getting close to the end of the month, which is also the end of the quarter, and that some traders get paid bonuses quarterly..
They literally have 0 idea why we're up a full % point
But this will be our FOURTH peek up into this supply zone since we've been in this range. With the market making sure we stayed above $3100, and the pump starting before the trade deal gaffe i think this is going to be their next try at a breakout. But look at the chart every time we get up here. Who will win? Keep in mind we're getting close to the end of the month, which is also the end of the quarter, and that some traders get paid bonuses quarterly..
Komentarz:
If we don't find support here we're going for the gap.
Komentarz:
Target $310.68 gap fill
