SPY - No Pain No Gain - Where's my peaches!
So taking some PAIN as the markets wants to rally. However I am still not really worried as I am of the opinion that yesterday was just noise, pushing players out and setting up for a pullback.
For those of you following back when inflation was "transitory" I was telling my followers that it was not transitory that it was going to stick. The FED is generally lagging because we have dotes running this country.
Yes everyone in Government seems to fail upward. Just amazing how we have such incompetency running our financial systems.
Technically, I stand with this is a B leg of a broader correction cycle. Things are not all peaches and cream. Well this year the peaches sucked anyways, not sure why but they did here in Florida.
Consumer Debt at all time highs is going to be a real driver in cutting into consumer discretionary purchases. Also starting to see a lot more discounts at the grocery store which is indicative of people going with cheaper choices. NY Steaks 88.99/LB, Chicken Quarters $0.99 /lb. I am getting Free Range Organic Eggs for $3.99 /lb.
This means many are eating spaghetti and cereal because they can't afford healthy food. Also spending on dining out is down as well. I mean seriously, I use to go to breakfast and get eggs bacon, grits and toast, with a coffee for $6. Now that same meal is $10 and does not include coffee.
Credit Card delinquency is at it's highest level in 10 years and rising.
Car Repo's are up a staggering 23% and rising. (look good or buy eggs)
Ford and Chevy offering 1.99% on their 1/2 tons pickups (they can't move them)
Housing market is starting to become a buyers market. We have been looking for a second home after selling our rental, and literally had two agents at two different open houses tell us, make an offer, don't think its too low!!!
So though houses under 300k or over 1 million are still relatively selling in our area, the 400-800k homes are not. This is evidence of middle class erosion or clamming up.
In short this is a house of cards that will end badly regardless of who is in office. This will lead to more money printing and more inflation IMO. We are Fucked!!! So yes for now I will hold my short. I can change as the market may not be primed to pullback, but we will get that pullback at some point here.
This does not imply sell your long term holdings. What I would recommend is build up some cash to have for better prices. And Lord Jesus, get me some good peaches!!!
For those of you following back when inflation was "transitory" I was telling my followers that it was not transitory that it was going to stick. The FED is generally lagging because we have dotes running this country.
Yes everyone in Government seems to fail upward. Just amazing how we have such incompetency running our financial systems.
Technically, I stand with this is a B leg of a broader correction cycle. Things are not all peaches and cream. Well this year the peaches sucked anyways, not sure why but they did here in Florida.
Consumer Debt at all time highs is going to be a real driver in cutting into consumer discretionary purchases. Also starting to see a lot more discounts at the grocery store which is indicative of people going with cheaper choices. NY Steaks 88.99/LB, Chicken Quarters $0.99 /lb. I am getting Free Range Organic Eggs for $3.99 /lb.
This means many are eating spaghetti and cereal because they can't afford healthy food. Also spending on dining out is down as well. I mean seriously, I use to go to breakfast and get eggs bacon, grits and toast, with a coffee for $6. Now that same meal is $10 and does not include coffee.
Credit Card delinquency is at it's highest level in 10 years and rising.
Car Repo's are up a staggering 23% and rising. (look good or buy eggs)
Ford and Chevy offering 1.99% on their 1/2 tons pickups (they can't move them)
Housing market is starting to become a buyers market. We have been looking for a second home after selling our rental, and literally had two agents at two different open houses tell us, make an offer, don't think its too low!!!
So though houses under 300k or over 1 million are still relatively selling in our area, the 400-800k homes are not. This is evidence of middle class erosion or clamming up.
In short this is a house of cards that will end badly regardless of who is in office. This will lead to more money printing and more inflation IMO. We are Fucked!!! So yes for now I will hold my short. I can change as the market may not be primed to pullback, but we will get that pullback at some point here.
This does not imply sell your long term holdings. What I would recommend is build up some cash to have for better prices. And Lord Jesus, get me some good peaches!!!
Uwaga
Let me add to this, I got quotes for Auto and Motorcycle Insurance, and what use to cost me $4000+- a year, I now get quoted $9500 a year! This is ridiculous, also homeowners and property tax are up, again we are fucked!
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