At least today. If you were watching the tape that fight for $310/$3100 was pretty epic.
Yesterday i noted that there was an exorbitant amount of call open interest around $310, and SPX $3100. But here's the thing. SPX options expired this morning and you had to exercise your SPY calls by yesterday in order to get the dividend. So it turns out it's just an important level, and the bulls didn't want to give it up. It does explain all the rescue operations we've seen the entire week though. I also want to apologize for giving the incorrect initial information on the ex dividend. I did post an update about 15 mins after posting.
Remember what i said yesterday about the bulls may be wanting to pad their day today by gapping us up? That's what happened. But this $314/$315 zone has turned out to be a pretty big supply zone. Meaning anytime we gap up into it we're almost immediately faded. People are selling into this price level. After good volume this morning we literally just bled all the way down into my support zones and we finally picked up some more volume to break $312.10 (weirdly important) and into, and ultimately past $310. We actually bled all the way down and then some algo or cheeky fund sniped something and we wicked the gap in order to fill it at $307.03. We immediately traded from it. Like within a blink of an eye. We had the bulls then attempt another rescue operation to get us to that mandated green close and to above the $310/$3100 price level only to be forced back below in the last minute of trading. Which leads me to my next point.
I've noticed a different character to the market this past week. The bulls have been on their heels essentially the entire time. It's been a slow bleed downwards in a channel (what looks like a bullflag) that we traded back into today. Volume was again super light and we bled lower until we'd get shots of volume to get us back to the "correct" price level. Half of that could have been MM's keeping us pinned. The other half could have been quad witching today and that sweet payday. But we actually saw meaningful sell volume today. Don't read into this too much as we just did have the third largest options expiration in history so a lack of volatility (besides today) benefited everyone who does this with other people's money.
I'm not reading into this too much as we can wake up Monday to a 80 point gap up. But just noting it. Another thing to note is on the chart this looks like a failed breakout from that bullflag with a bearish engulfing pivot candle printing on the daily. I personally just want to get out of this level. I don't care which way we go at this point haha.
Look at the trading day from the 5m perspective. Notice how price is attracted to both the fibs and support/resistance
Notice the failed breakout today and the trade back into the channel, also filling the gap left from last Friday. The magnet was too strong. Now, do we trade away from it or keep going next week?
Daily printing a bearish engulfing and what definitely looks like a pivot candle
Definitely broke that new trend line as well with a break, restest, and rejection
SPX showing a trade back into the channel, with the mounted rescue operation and ultimately a rejection from $3000 at the last minute
On SPX the bearish engulfing actually covers the past three days AND filled the gap
IWM back on daily trendline support..
IWM shows much respect for trendlines
So earlier today my rounded bottom thesis on VIX looked like it was about to take a hit. But we ended up tagged the .618 fib perfectly and ultimately ended up trading away from it. After VIX was essentially depressed the majority of the day we ended the day UP 6.6%. Bear thesis still very much in play for equities
The hourly perfectly tagged it's 200 period MA. We need to break this $32 area for it to continue
NDX...
Look at these divergences
1h
4h
Daily
Weekly
LOOK AT THIS - Monthly
DJI - Slow motion rejection
XLF out of gas
DJT out of gas
Anyday now silver..
Goldman was finished filling their longs with that last liquidity hunt and now gave gold a 2k price target
Silver inverted (10 yr)
All the signs are telling me we roll over. But like i've said before this game isn't easy. Just like how everything looked like a perfect bullflag and then this morning we broke out and..! ohhh..
Get my point? If it looks too obvious that's suspicious. If gets everyone over to one side of the boat so the 5 guys in a room can all steal their lunch money by letting the boat capsize. I didn't touch any of my positions today, so i'm still net negative delta. But at the same time we could ACTUALLY be seeing big money sitting this one out sentiment wise because they already dumped all their large positions from the bottom the last couple weeks on the retail guys and now they're looking for the data to catch up to the market pricing. What that could mean is we literally just meander like we've been doing, but generally that means gravity takes over. So we'll see. It'll be tough to get through the $300-$280 price zone without another hit to the market sentiment wise (another shutdown/second wave, apocalyptic econ data or earnings). But the news effect is starting to wear off. So we'll see.
Hope everyone had a good week. And have a good weekend.
Question: Over the past couple weeks i've gained a decent amount of followers. And i've been thinking about actually putting all of what i've been putting in my daily posts on an actual webpage. It seems like we've seen a lot of new traders the past few months and i enjoy helping. But i'm thinking about actually putting together almost like a guide or a resource that people who are new to trading could use that would include the market nuances, how to chart, how to read the markets, the generic rules to live by, the verbiage, stuff like that. Let me know if that's something you'd be interested in.
Thanks everyone! See you all on Monday.
Yesterday i noted that there was an exorbitant amount of call open interest around $310, and SPX $3100. But here's the thing. SPX options expired this morning and you had to exercise your SPY calls by yesterday in order to get the dividend. So it turns out it's just an important level, and the bulls didn't want to give it up. It does explain all the rescue operations we've seen the entire week though. I also want to apologize for giving the incorrect initial information on the ex dividend. I did post an update about 15 mins after posting.
Remember what i said yesterday about the bulls may be wanting to pad their day today by gapping us up? That's what happened. But this $314/$315 zone has turned out to be a pretty big supply zone. Meaning anytime we gap up into it we're almost immediately faded. People are selling into this price level. After good volume this morning we literally just bled all the way down into my support zones and we finally picked up some more volume to break $312.10 (weirdly important) and into, and ultimately past $310. We actually bled all the way down and then some algo or cheeky fund sniped something and we wicked the gap in order to fill it at $307.03. We immediately traded from it. Like within a blink of an eye. We had the bulls then attempt another rescue operation to get us to that mandated green close and to above the $310/$3100 price level only to be forced back below in the last minute of trading. Which leads me to my next point.
I've noticed a different character to the market this past week. The bulls have been on their heels essentially the entire time. It's been a slow bleed downwards in a channel (what looks like a bullflag) that we traded back into today. Volume was again super light and we bled lower until we'd get shots of volume to get us back to the "correct" price level. Half of that could have been MM's keeping us pinned. The other half could have been quad witching today and that sweet payday. But we actually saw meaningful sell volume today. Don't read into this too much as we just did have the third largest options expiration in history so a lack of volatility (besides today) benefited everyone who does this with other people's money.
I'm not reading into this too much as we can wake up Monday to a 80 point gap up. But just noting it. Another thing to note is on the chart this looks like a failed breakout from that bullflag with a bearish engulfing pivot candle printing on the daily. I personally just want to get out of this level. I don't care which way we go at this point haha.
Look at the trading day from the 5m perspective. Notice how price is attracted to both the fibs and support/resistance
Notice the failed breakout today and the trade back into the channel, also filling the gap left from last Friday. The magnet was too strong. Now, do we trade away from it or keep going next week?
Daily printing a bearish engulfing and what definitely looks like a pivot candle
Definitely broke that new trend line as well with a break, restest, and rejection
SPX showing a trade back into the channel, with the mounted rescue operation and ultimately a rejection from $3000 at the last minute
On SPX the bearish engulfing actually covers the past three days AND filled the gap
IWM back on daily trendline support..
IWM shows much respect for trendlines
So earlier today my rounded bottom thesis on VIX looked like it was about to take a hit. But we ended up tagged the .618 fib perfectly and ultimately ended up trading away from it. After VIX was essentially depressed the majority of the day we ended the day UP 6.6%. Bear thesis still very much in play for equities
The hourly perfectly tagged it's 200 period MA. We need to break this $32 area for it to continue
NDX...
Look at these divergences
1h
DJI - Slow motion rejection
XLF out of gas
DJT out of gas
Anyday now silver..
Goldman was finished filling their longs with that last liquidity hunt and now gave gold a 2k price target
Silver inverted (10 yr)
All the signs are telling me we roll over. But like i've said before this game isn't easy. Just like how everything looked like a perfect bullflag and then this morning we broke out and..! ohhh..
Get my point? If it looks too obvious that's suspicious. If gets everyone over to one side of the boat so the 5 guys in a room can all steal their lunch money by letting the boat capsize. I didn't touch any of my positions today, so i'm still net negative delta. But at the same time we could ACTUALLY be seeing big money sitting this one out sentiment wise because they already dumped all their large positions from the bottom the last couple weeks on the retail guys and now they're looking for the data to catch up to the market pricing. What that could mean is we literally just meander like we've been doing, but generally that means gravity takes over. So we'll see. It'll be tough to get through the $300-$280 price zone without another hit to the market sentiment wise (another shutdown/second wave, apocalyptic econ data or earnings). But the news effect is starting to wear off. So we'll see.
Hope everyone had a good week. And have a good weekend.
Question: Over the past couple weeks i've gained a decent amount of followers. And i've been thinking about actually putting all of what i've been putting in my daily posts on an actual webpage. It seems like we've seen a lot of new traders the past few months and i enjoy helping. But i'm thinking about actually putting together almost like a guide or a resource that people who are new to trading could use that would include the market nuances, how to chart, how to read the markets, the generic rules to live by, the verbiage, stuff like that. Let me know if that's something you'd be interested in.
Thanks everyone! See you all on Monday.
Komentarz:
Morning everyone. Keep in mind that futures fell an additional 25 points after close on Friday. Meaning that it may show that we're green right now. But SPX close was 3095, ES close was $3057.75. We filled the gap overnight in the Asian and Euro sessions. Decent bearish news over the weekend including COVID cases, highest US savings rate in a while, and bad news for Donnie. We'll see how the week plays out.
Komentarz:
Not sure what the play is. But we bounced directly off of my daily SPX support/resistance line at 3080, and the bulls stubbornly have us back above $3100. For some reason they want us at or above this number still.
Komentarz:
IWM trying to hold trend
Komentarz:
We are currently at less than 40m shares traded on SPY. Looks like big money took a long weekend.
