SPX500USD (6H/4H): HIGH-RISK DOWNTREND

The SPX500USD on the 4-hour/6-hour timeframe is exhibiting significant bearish momentum, consistent with a short- to medium-term downtrend.

However, longer-term indicators suggest that the index is approaching critical support levels that could provide a platform for a potential rebound. The SPX500USD remains in a short-term downtrend, presenting opportunities for bearish trades near resistance levels.

However, long-term indicators suggest that the index is approaching a critical support zone that could provide a platform for a rebound.

***Traders should watch for confirmation of price action and volume at the 5,800–5,860 level before committing to long positions.

OSCILLATORS
The oscillators highlight a bearish sentiment with increasing selling pressure but suggest that the market is nearing oversold conditions, potentially setting up for a relief bounce.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 38.11 – Neutral, approaching oversold territory.
  
• Stochastic %K: 24.77 – Neutral, near oversold conditions.
  
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -102.47 – Neutral, signaling mild bearish momentum.
  
• Momentum (10): -75.92 – Sell, confirming bearish pressure.
  
• MACD: -29.63 – Sell, reflecting declining momentum and no imminent reversal signals.
  
• Williams Percent Range: -77.32 – Neutral, nearing oversold territory.
  

MOVING AVERAGES
Short-term moving averages confirm bearish momentum, while long-term averages signal potential support and a possible reversal point.

• Short-Term MAs (10, 20, 30, 50): All indicate “Sell” signals, confirming strong bearish momentum in the short to medium term.
  
• Long-Term MAs (200 EMA and SMA): Indicate “Buy” signals, reflecting the underlying bullish trend over the longer timeframe.
  
• Ichimoku Base Line: Neutral at 5,962.44.
  
• Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): 5,959.81 – Sell, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment.
  
• Hull Moving Average (HMA): 5,862.93 – Buy, indicating potential support near current price levels.
  

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS

• Immediate Resistance: 5,960–6,000 (aligned with short-term moving averages).
  
• Major Resistance: 6,100–6,160 (upper pivot zones and psychological barrier).
  
• Key Support: 5,860–5,800 (aligned with Hull Moving Average and 200 EMA/SMA).
  
• Critical Support: 5,760 and 5,658 (historical pivot lows).
  

PRICE ACTION

• The index has recently tested its resistance levels near 5,960 but failed to break through, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
  
• Strong selling pressure is evident in the price action, with lower highs and lower lows dominating the 4-hour chart.
  
• However, significant support is observed around 5,800, where the 200 EMA and SMA converge, offering potential for a bullish rebound if the level holds.
  

BEARISH SETUP (Short Positions)

• Entry Zone: 5,960–6,000 (resistance levels and short-term MAs).
  
• Stop-Loss: Above 6,010 (next major resistance).
  
• Target: 5,860–5,800 (first support zone), and extend to 5,760 if bearish momentum persists.
  

BULLISH SETUP (Long Positions)

• Entry Zone: 5,800–5,860 (key support area, aligned with 200 EMA/SMA).
  
• Stop-Loss: Below 5,780 (critical support break).
  
• Target: 5,960–6,000 (resistance levels), and extend to 6,100 if the rebound is strong.
  

MARKET SENTIMENT

• Short-Term: Bearish – Downtrend persists, with strong resistance at 5,960 and 6,000.
  
• Medium-Term: Neutral – Oversold conditions may trigger a relief rally.
  
• Long-Term: Bullish – The 200 EMA and SMA indicate potential for a long-term uptrend if key support levels hold.