S&P500 getting more complex by the day
The S&P500 (and all other major US indices) experienced some (nice?!) whipsaws last week: Neither the bulls nor bears won. Whatever the future may exactly hold, the recent price action is very confusing and still, believe it or not, range bound. I've seen more ways to Elliott wave count the price action over the last two weeks, which in the end IMHO means it is (part of) a corrective structure because everybody can count an impulse down, than one can throw sticks at and at some point one will stick (pun intended).
Question is if the correction is already over (red alt: ii) or still on going (green b) Looking at all the available information, my read is that we will continue to have a bullish bias over the next few days, due to the triple 90% up day last Friday for both A/D % and Up/Down Volume %. . This is most likely a strong enough reading to keep markets afloat into the 2950-3000 resistance area, thereby continuing to follow the average pre-election year pattern the market has followed all year long so far.
IF price can get above resistance, with a first warning above SPX2965 then the Bulls can push price into the 3100-3200 levels and higher, but this is not my preferred outcome right now.
So, while with help of futures' driven monster gap ups the markets are staying afloat, there is no clear resolution yet as to which path the markets are ultimately on. Please remember that IF the Bull train to SPX3900+ has started there's still >800p of upside potential left when this option is confirmed. Current upside potential is maybe therefore 1000p and for those who don't day-trade every blip, it would not be unwise to wait for more certainty. But that's just me.
For now the small floor is at SPX2913. Below it opens up SPX2900+/-10p.
Trade safe!
Question is if the correction is already over (red alt: ii) or still on going (green b) Looking at all the available information, my read is that we will continue to have a bullish bias over the next few days, due to the triple 90% up day last Friday for both A/D % and Up/Down Volume %. . This is most likely a strong enough reading to keep markets afloat into the 2950-3000 resistance area, thereby continuing to follow the average pre-election year pattern the market has followed all year long so far.
IF price can get above resistance, with a first warning above SPX2965 then the Bulls can push price into the 3100-3200 levels and higher, but this is not my preferred outcome right now.
So, while with help of futures' driven monster gap ups the markets are staying afloat, there is no clear resolution yet as to which path the markets are ultimately on. Please remember that IF the Bull train to SPX3900+ has started there's still >800p of upside potential left when this option is confirmed. Current upside potential is maybe therefore 1000p and for those who don't day-trade every blip, it would not be unwise to wait for more certainty. But that's just me.
For now the small floor is at SPX2913. Below it opens up SPX2900+/-10p.
Trade safe!
Expert and Accurate Stock Market Forecasting
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
President & Founder Intelligent Investing, LLC
Vice President & Co-Founder NorthPost Partners, LP
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
President & Founder Intelligent Investing, LLC
Vice President & Co-Founder NorthPost Partners, LP
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