S&P 500Zaktualizowano Retail Rally to 10 June Then Summer of Pain
Bars fit pretty neatly, eh? Just a notion. Wouldn't bet the farm on this countertrend move. Get high enough to stop out bears for loss then plunge.
Fibo at 4300 probably be the end of this bearmarket rally. Might get higher, might not. Prior rallies in Jan, Mar failed. This will too imo.
Gamblers' Game; Vicious beast.
Fibo at 4300 probably be the end of this bearmarket rally. Might get higher, might not. Prior rallies in Jan, Mar failed. This will too imo.
Gamblers' Game; Vicious beast.
Uwaga
We have not yet seen true panic capitulation. Soon imo.Uwaga
Hmm doesn't look so bullish today... see if we get a fifth wave higher this week, will prolly be a top if it does imo.Uwaga
TRyin a few calls, might go red>green imoUwaga
Closed, it's pretty choppy watch n wait.Zlecenie aktywne
Flipped calls in power hour. Did not see the last minute EOD sell comin, thought it might bull but took no pos.Fragile now... feels like a 4th wave imo, not shorting yet. Could still have another 100 pips to upside imo.
Tomorrow is another day!
Uwaga
Yeah its not getting a lot higher imo. Took some shorts, covered, re-entered. Got a hangin man doji, might get gap down Thurs, often will after this selloff >runup.Holding ten SQQQ 48.5 Jun calls. (Buy calls on inverse ETF for bear bet!)
Uwaga
If we don't see higher by Friday this rally is done imo. Might still give a double top failure pattern. Might just tank off.Zlecenie aktywne
Flipping puts across qqq 306 strike, choppyUwaga
Appears to be crowning at this price level could be setting up for a tankoff imoUwaga
Fliiped calls lol so choppy it can do anything today imo; any positive news on anything could light the fireUwaga
Bulling a bit, shorting this liftUwaga
Rolled shorts into longs to catch part of this move. It's pretty clear fifth wave, most of it in NQ. Retail bagholders buying the bag at end of rally.Would not chase this would not buy this! Caveat Emptor!!
Uwaga
NB: Rallied to breakdown point; former support is now resistance. Might squeak a notch higher on short covering but this is not gonna bull imo. Expect rejection from breakdown price to lower prices soon. DO NOT BUY IMO!
Uwaga
Stonks trade now at the breakdown price, former support is resistance now, b/c those who got in at 'support' now want out at breakeven to get their money backZlecenie aktywne
Told ya not to buy this POS. Engulfing bear candle fgs. Fooled around with a few small pos, quit while I'm green for day; it's just a vicious dog imo, bites you every time you enter anything. For the bull case this COULD be a wave 2 intermediate pullback or a B wave in an emerging uptrend. It does have an inverted H&S forming on this sellback.
Anything can happen any day, hold NOTHING overnight!
Uwaga
Gonna waterfall soon imo. Take no longs. I bought one put EOD, SPY weekly 408p for $4.Uwaga
Some asking how low I think it might go. We have yet to see capitulation, real fear and panic. Right now price acts like complacency (it went down some, now it can go back up, right?!) but real anxiety (OMG will it never come back?!) and panic (O FGS I LOST SO MUCH ALREADY JUST SELL IT ALL!) have yet to emerge:Final tar full bear scenario: -45-55% SPX; NDX might go off -80%, did in 2008, panic always affects it the most. Won't go off overnight, has been grinding five months now, by rule of 2/3, the largest decline will come in the last third of bear move timeframe. Shaping up to be a 9 month bear, a massive break in Sep/Oct would be the biggest waterfall in history if the pattern confirms and repeats we could be looking at 2400 SPX in October. NQ has gone off 25% already and that is likely the first 1/3, next 2/3 price drop comes in the last 1/3 of time to event; a 75% drop is possible, with most of that still waiting for panic and capitulation. NQ was near 17k, could drop to 4k. If you consider that far-fetched, remember in the last panic 2008/9 it fell 90% over 400+ days. Most participants in this market have never seen a real bear. I have traded through 1987, 2K dot-com and the 2008 crash and I'm still here. This one will be amazing IMO...
Uwaga
Market cycle psychology; thrill, euphoria gave way to initial fear and now complacency (the bottom is in! it went back up!! yay!), anxiety, denial and panic coming soon:fifthperson.com/psychology-market-cycles/
Zlecenie aktywne
Fading this gapUwaga
And losses turned into profits! See if it fades more keep a runnerUwaga
Closed the runners +500 bucks better than a poke in the eyeUwaga
Friday gapped down and went down, stayed down. Monday gaps up, goes up, might just stay up.Gap didn't fill in first 40m it might not fill until eod or might gap down Tues to fill it.
The see-saw nutty whipsaw is just about untradeable imo. There is no clear direction, patternless. Every entry is a gamble; good luck!
Zlecenie aktywne
Yeah tried few calls closed for a push, price just hangs, won't come down, might squeak higher, but time is not on your side.Uwaga
On the daily chart price has formed a crown over past week. This is a bearish formation that usually breaks down. It is still possible to resolve to upside so risk is high for any pos. Watch, wait, all in cash.Zlecenie aktywne
Panic buy puts closed em on the mini-sell. Gap might fill intraday imo.Uwaga
Not shorting big just yet. Price consolidates at higher low and could move up again this week imo. Don't get trapped!Zlecenie aktywne
Small shorts on QQQ at 308p, 307p, 306p all paid. Back in cash. Gap just about filled...Uwaga
QQQ traded to .15c of closing price, might be filled here? Unless it goes Green > Red imoUwaga
Gap filled watch it now, can it bounce? No shortsUwaga
QQQ closed 306.20 low 306.17, considering longs atmUwaga
opened 4 307c 0dteUwaga
Closed the calls for a nickel better, watch waitUwaga
It's either consolidating for a move higher or going to dump. No clear direction no clear signals, indicators mixed to slight bullish, pure crapshoot atm imoUwaga
DJI closed gap now red, NQ a touch red, SPX pennies away, price at critical juncture; will it hold or tank? Stay tuned.Uwaga
RUT is holding up pretty well could be the key to direction imoUwaga
Looks, feels like a bull flag. Could give a measured move higher, would end right around 4300 if it does, squarely on top of the overlay. Not sayin it WILL go there, just it COULD and i hate to lose on shorts if it does. Take trades with good R/R ratio, rather than guessing randomly, eh?!Uwaga
Fade the gapUwaga
Closed gap tradeUwaga
Might be forming a higher low? Gap ought to fill intraday but lately has been like this, gaps and stays down, fills next day. Up gaps been like that too, but it did fill late yesterday. So unpredictable atm.Uwaga
Trying spy 410cUwaga
Closed itm back in cashUwaga
Not much rip in it today. Hoped n expected a quicker gap fill but sentiment swings like this. All bullish Thursday, bearish as HELL Fri, bullish/bearish/?Bullish again Weds? At some point it will just break down again and start another fierce bear campaign imo.If you wonder "WTH he keep closing the longs on gapfill?" Is b/c these are countertrend plays, the trend is DOWN so if you buy calls you are PROBABLY WRONG but might scalp a few pips before it rolls over again... trade with care! Back in cash, lunchtime coming, the doldrums.
Uwaga
LOL and it filled while I tabbed out to type this... fgs!Uwaga
Look at RTY, traded on May back to Jan 2020 peak, moving up from there. Could be reversing, could retest, keep an eye on RTY!Uwaga
Not chasing this rip. Made a bit off the weakness coming off the top. Resting now, lunchtime errands. See if they sell the damned thing all the way back down, lol.Uwaga
Shorted EOD for a scalper in SPY 416p. Holding nothing, no clear direction, but it has made a crown top, breakdown could occur next week imo. FOMC decision Weds, always a joy to play. Pattern has been to sell at the 2pm news release then buy it up on J Powell's speeches.
Uwaga
The whipsawing has been terrific, it's volatile even when price is rising, VIX has come well off highs but remains elevated ~24 atm. Today SPY moved over an $8 range but there was no clean trade, whipped up and down several times intraday before the bear flag unfurled EOD. If you got lucky you could catch some of these moves but it takes steel nerve to sit and watch your position fluctuate wildly all day. Came out ahead, but it's not really bulling, it's frantic chop with capitulation by shorts covering eod. Would not chase this rally, is likely on its last leg, the crown is a bearish formation. Volume has been creeping down, on 5/31 SPY traded 95m shares, today only 54m. volume steadily declining over past week. When it breaks will be swift and sudden.Zlecenie aktywne
Flipped calls on gapfill and rolled into few puts, closed it all. Directionless, stuck in the middle again.Uwaga
Traded down to overnite lows on futurz. Might bounce again; pure gamble imo. No pos.Zlecenie aktywne
Played calls > puts again for a buck. Chop n churn!Zlecenie aktywne
Flipped puts maybe it sells more idk gonna try a few calls againUwaga
Closed itZlecenie aktywne
Been frantically selling and buying it. Caught the bounce from -50 pips on SPX. Not chasing it. IMO the rally is just about done.Uwaga
Visited 4110 twice. Caught wee bounces but it is suddenly bearish. Pattern of alternating days suggests Thurs might bounce and sell again Friday.Uwaga
Played eod bounce dont get caught chasing it imo, back in cash. Scalper trades only. Anything can happen Thursday but it ought to get a bounce tomorrow imo.Uwaga
Scalping moves so fast some trades <30sUwaga
Retrace rally so weak idk but it should get some bounce tomorrow imo, bloody bearish eod but I am not buying puts here!Zlecenie aktywne
See related post on ES1. Been busy flipping calls > puts > Calls. Back in cash. It's consolidating in range bound trade. It could finally start to move higher and if it breaks up from TL it will get Bulleesh imo. Too soon to say.Charting a falling wedge which can lead to measured move higher, could carry to 4300. Don't be short if it goes!
Uwaga
LOL dropped 20 pips while im typing this fgs, sigh... so choppy! Amazing I pulled anything out of it today.Uwaga
Cash is a position and I like it. Random chop just takes your money. Don't guess; be sure.Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel
Done
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