Indeks S&P 500Short
SP500 - SPX - To Move Lower, Recession Awaits Pt 2
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As stated as an update on my previous post, we have moved toward the option of tracing highs to 3040. This is now looking like the most likely option, making one last touch before heading down at or before October 11th (projected). This is where several strong lines of support and resistance meet. This option looks likely as we could be setting up for another ascending triangle to reach that new high of 3040.
Another option is to over extend into the 3080 area where a bull trap is set and moving lower from there.
Either way, October is showing many similarities to the Great Recession stock market crash. Treasury 10y-3mo looks to be inverting back positive soon also.
Last option is that we have made a double top and will move lower from here.
Overall, I don't think it will move higher than 3100, the only way this is possible is if trade talks are fully dealt with. I think what will happen is October talks will come around, there will be no deal since both sides are stubborn (one more than the other) and we will move lower by December, possibly replicating what happened last December.
Remember, strongest RSI divergence on ALL graphs - this must end at some point.
Here is my final prediction, will wait for October 11-25th!
Another option is to over extend into the 3080 area where a bull trap is set and moving lower from there.
Either way, October is showing many similarities to the Great Recession stock market crash. Treasury 10y-3mo looks to be inverting back positive soon also.
Last option is that we have made a double top and will move lower from here.
Overall, I don't think it will move higher than 3100, the only way this is possible is if trade talks are fully dealt with. I think what will happen is October talks will come around, there will be no deal since both sides are stubborn (one more than the other) and we will move lower by December, possibly replicating what happened last December.
Remember, strongest RSI divergence on ALL graphs - this must end at some point.
Here is my final prediction, will wait for October 11-25th!
Uwaga
[img]So route 3 has been determined, and today we hit the upper resistance which still remains strong and has not been broken.
I still see the bull trap zone as 3050 - 3130 from fibonacci analysis.
Still uncertain why the market is higher, zero amazing China news, along with the Fed cutting rates when the markets are at highs, oil is fine, and the economy "being the best it has ever been" according to some people. So why the rate cut?? Use your heads! This is when you need to be cautious. Seems like a false breakout to me.
I will be bearish until 3200 is broken. If 3200 is broken bullishly and the RSI divergence pattern is broken, I will be bullish. My guess is that in the bull trap zone is where we will see RSI rejection occur along the red line.
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