S&P 500: Not wise to bet on a dead-cat bounce. [22Mar'20]

21 mar 2020

50/200 SMA Death Cross incoming on the 1D chart.
Continued to be rejected by the weekly 200 SMA, as well as the 3hrly 21 EMA (with bearish ichicloud rapidly and significantly thickening as well).

3hrly chart: CYBER ENSEMBLE {PREMIUM}


PRISM (pSAR+MACD derived Oscillator. With PRISM-Momentum/Acceleration/Jerk Oscillators; aka MAJ)


Speculation: Bear flat setup to come?


Historical recession comparison.

23 mar 2020

Uwaga

23 mar 2020

Uwaga

With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value).

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Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority.

Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key.

Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift).
However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future.

Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network.

Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows.
Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago.

Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift.

A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies.

23 mar 2020

Uwaga

The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich.

23 mar 2020

Uwaga

.. typically..

27 mar 2020

Uwaga

Here comes the dead-cat bounce.
A leaking tire will continue to leak once punctured regardless of how desperately you try to pump air into it.

27 mar 2020

Uwaga

SPX broke above 200 weekly SMA, however that just set yet another lower high. 50/200 SMA death cross incoming!

1 kwi 2020

Uwaga

1 kwi 2020

Uwaga

11 kwi 2020

Uwaga

Easter 11 Apr 2020 update and re-look at the SPX chart:

11 kwi 2020

Uwaga

A brief look at my PRISM Oscillators Set:
pRSI-Osc = PRISM (RSI Mode Enbabled) Oscillator
S-Osc = Snap Oscillator (derived from pRSI-Osc)
AJ-Ribbon = Acceleration/Jerk Ribbon (derived from pRSI-Osc)
M-Osc = Momentum Oscillator (derived from pRSI-Osc)

11 kwi 2020

Uwaga

Current trend = breakout from the massive "W" accumulation pattern (from stock buy backs, corporate socialism stimulus injected into the sick market, desperately trying to provide life-support and to revive it).