2024-2026 Exploration of 5-100x Web3 cryptos and Stock Targe

5 mar

Time flies, nearly four years have passed since we wrote a similar article, and we feel quite satisfied as 95% of the predictions have been met. Except for Boeing, which surprisingly didn't take off, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, and PDD ($19) achieved the expected 5-10x growth within two years. The subsequent performances of ACH, LSE:UOS, NEAR, and ALGO provided even greater surprises with 10-80x gains.

However, I continuously reflect and hope to improve my judgment since, compared to readers who directly read the articles, those of us immersed in the sea of information sometimes have our initial judgments clouded by various external factors.

We prefer to express our views at relatively low or high points in advance, allowing time to silently validate these opinions. Real-time perspectives are highly attractive but also constantly at risk, demanding much energy and health. Many have faced health warnings, and we hope everyone remains healthy and happy in 2024. I lean towards identifying the start and end points, then trusting the driver and natural progression for everything in between.

Returning to the topic, it has been over two and a half years since a similar article, and I will discuss a few targets and core catalysts I believe are underestimated:

1.Bitcoin (BTC) BTCUSD

Introduction: Born in January 2009 as a hedge against inflation after the 2008 financial crisis, BTC has experienced nearly 16 years. Its underlying logic and blockchain technology have birthed foundational blockchains like Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, and Algo. BTC's development attributes have expanded potential applications, such as Stacks and RGB protocols. My ultimate expectation for BTC is simple: it could be valued highly just as a new E-GOLD for decades to come. If its ecosystem applications further explode, it could become one of this century's leading assets.

Key Catalysts: The 2024 halving, reducing block rewards to 3.125 and resulting in a yearly inflation of about 0.782%, which is lower than the inflation rates of most developed countries. The next wave of funding entering the industry could be expedited by the SEC’s approval of ETFs, the alleviation of sell pressure from Grayscale's repositioning and MGOT, and traditional financial risks causing forced rescue actions by BTC-holding companies to pass.

● Expected Valuation: $200,000 MC: 4.2 trillion USD, marking the beginning of a new world, extensively unfolding application scenarios

Reminder: It's important to emphasize that long-term expected valuations do not imply a straight path upwards from current price points. There might be an average upward trend, but short-term intense volatility is possible. Always remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. This reminder is also placed here for additional caution.

2.Telegram Ime ( LIMEUSDT Lime) & TON (TON)

Introduction
Ime Messenger is a special version of Telegram, integrating functionalities such as a multi-chain wallet, enabling direct transfers of various blockchain assets like BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc., among Telegram friends. It incorporates features like Binance Pay, direct Google Translate in Twitter and TG conversations, and optimizes Telegram's overall layout and usability.

Telegram accounts and chat histories, along with other crucial data, can be directly utilized in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, chat histories in the IME version will automatically sync with the original Telegram version, facilitating easy switching. The Ime version essentially acts as an integrator, merging the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, with TON leaning towards the chain ecosystem.

TON is a native public blockchain ecosystem developed on top of Telegram, serving as an inherited blockchain project from TG's original project team. It introduces more development possibilities and diversity to Telegram's native ecosystem growth.

● Core Logic:

Within three years, the user base of the Ime version increased from 2 million to 10 million users, a 500% increase. The friendly relationship with Telegram's founding team enables seamless connection to Telegram's 700 million users. The latest multi-chain Token group red packet function uses Lime as the Gas fee, which will greatly benefit the project's operation and promotion if more convenient modes are optimized in the future. Ime's multi-chain integration feature can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem faster. Currently, LIME's FDV fluctuates between 5M and 10M, far below the valuation of many primary market projects.

TON, as TG's native underlying public blockchain, ranks at the forefront in terms of operational level and market promotion. It can be directly used in the original version of TG, reducing the teaching cost. Although it doesn't support multi-chain, the wallet is a single-chain wallet in the form of a dialogue box. TON itself also has enough potential, and its FDV has surpassed $10 billion, indicating the market's expectations for Telegram.

● Keys to Launch:

Ime Lime:

Due to the presence of many hardcore tech personnel from Russia and Ukraine, the involvement of core operational PR is needed to enhance the project's self-marketing capability.
Further optimization of the TG group members' ability to freely use the red packet function to send various TOKENs as rewards to group members.
More optimization of TG functionalities to be utilized.
Further support and policies from Russia towards blockchain applications.

TON:

A more lenient regulatory stance from the SEC towards the official Telegram TON.
Collaboration and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain.
An increase in GameFi entering through TG as a portal.

● Expected Valuation:
Lime: Current MC FDV: 5.7M, Expected FDV: 33B-55B
TON: Current MC FDV: MUN:10B, Expected FDV: 60B

3.Conflux (CFX) CFXUSDT

● Basic Introduction:

Conflux is a Layer 1 public blockchain supported by a team that includes a Turing Award winner and technical advisors from Tsinghua University's Yao Class, aimed at long-term development platforms for dApps, e-commerce, Web 3, and metaverse infrastructures. Its Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which combines Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms, is considered one of the most prominent purely domestic projects in my opinion.

● Core Logic:

Conflux's unique Tree-Graph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, driven by a technology-focused team, ensuring smoothness and convenience comparable to high-valuation blockchain projects like SOL and ETH. It aligns quickly with the mainstream development pace of Web3, waiting only for further opening and an increase in active users to unlock significant potential. Trendy applications are gradually making their way onto CFX.

● Keys to Launch:

Further support and liberalization for blockchain public chain applications and the metaverse by mainland China.Further popularization of the public chain as a pilot test in China's Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions.

More official cooperation and implementation with institutions like CITIC, Xiaohongshu, leading to the complete disappearance of traditional capital suppression.
Gradual maturity of Conflux's own development and formal, successful support for BTC L2.

● Expected Valuation:

Current MC FDV of CFX: Fluctuating around 0.9B, Expected FDV: 36B-80B

4.Opulous (OPUL) OPULUSDT

● Basic Introduction:

A music RWA+DeFi project, where RWA has already achieved application cooperation with singers. Investors can participate in purchasing a portion of album rights with OPUL to earn subsequent album revenue shares from the artist. The new feature, Opulous OLOAN, creates a unique bridge between RWA and the music industry. By staking USDC in the pool, it provides funding for musicians and earns extra income on the staked USDC.

OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. This library, curated by Opulous music experts, features popular and high-performing songs. Participating in OVAULT not only grants access to this music library but also rewards, offering a way to engage with the music industry and profit from staking.

● Core Logic:
The company has a rich network of core music resources, with dittos being a music collaboration company of ED Sheeran, Overall, Opulous maintains a relatively leading position in market rhythm control, ranking as one of the more playful project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. The pressure from private placements has been fully released.

● Key to Launch:
The further popularization of music applications, as well as the actual revenue generated by high-profit artists.

● Expected Valuation:

OPUL current MC FDV fluctuates around 50M-100M, with an expected FDV of MUN:10B-30B

5.Bilibili (BILI) BILI

● Basic Introduction:

A video creation and live streaming platform, a haven for secondary elements, and a platform concentrated with young purchasing power, which has invested in a bunch of enterprises leading to poor financial reports in recent years. Thus, the stock price has plummeted from its peak, so let's just drink to that.

● Core Logic:

Currently, the only platform in China that seems capable of competing with YouTube.
Gaming may catch up to the era of Web3 entry points.
High user stickiness, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to anime series.

● Key to Launch:

Encourage more original creative educational videos, as most Chinese videos now are summary-based, and original content is much less compared to YouTube. Activating this "wasteland" could be a significant source of revenue for Bili, as many are willing to pay for quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good.

Investments from the past two years are beginning to generate exit profits.

Revise the business distribution; the current mix of live streaming and gaming services with the website is a bit odd.

● Expected Valuation:

Bili's current valuation: 3.8B MC FDV, with an expected valuation in 5 years of $50-100B.

6.Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana

AVAXUSDT BINANCE:MATICUSDT ALGOUSDT NEARUSDT SOLUSDT

● Basic Introduction:

Alt-L1 is a core foundational public blockchain infrastructure. AVAX and Polygon are more akin to Ethereum's sidechains, while Sol / Near / Algo have their own underlying architectures + EVM+BTC virtual machine compatibility or stand-alone projects to enhance compatibility with Ethereum. Each public blockchain has its own unique ecosystem. In 2024, it's more suitable for each chain to be discussed separately in a comprehensive series due to their foundational architectures, which cannot be fully covered here without extending into tens of thousands of words.

● Core Logic:
The security of L1's underlying architecture has become increasingly refined. Although there have been debates regarding Sol's foundational security, it's undeniable that Solana has become the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, even leading in popularity at times. However, with the initiation of Ethereum's layering series, Ethereum's ecosystem could potentially introduce more gameplay. AVAX, SOL, and Matic are perfect examples of market rhythm mastery, with Near being average in convenience, and Algo being the least market-savvy but having the highest prestige in terms of technical strength and collaborations.

The other L1s are advancing similarly, now engaging in mutual competition. After an uninteresting two years, the public chain ecosystem is finally starting to show some vitality again.

● Key to Launch:

After global macroeconomic black swan events are thoroughly cleared, the new era's focus will shift further towards AI, blockchain, and informational fields, increasing the exploration desire for reservoirs and funds. LSD, Restaking, Rollup, and various new DeFi gameplay will further penetrate major ecosystems, sparking new value bubbles.

● Expected Valuation:

Future MC FDV:
AVAX: 150B
SOL: 300B
ALGO: 60B-150B (300B--- if the team optimizes and gets designated by US policies)
NEAR: 50B-100B
MATIC: 80B-100B (250B--- if designated by Indian policies)

7.Tiger Brokers (Tiger)

● Basic Introduction:
A youthful brokerage with excellent trading experience, superb data provision, and UI design, providing ample information on financial reports and data.

● Core Logic:
Undervalued, with virtual licenses approved. The support for compliant tokens like USDC for deposit could significantly increase trading volume and financial income.

● Key to Launch:

Further relaxation and support for compliant KYC by domestic policies.
Overall recovery and accumulation in the financial markets.
● Expected Valuation:
Current FDV: 0.58B, Expected FDV: 10-20 B

8.Planetswatch (Planets)

● Basic Introduction:
An eco-friendly project monitoring air quality through air sensors, allowing for real-time air quality data transmission via different sensor nodes in exchange for token rewards.

● Core Logic:
High early valuation and low circulation rate, with prices significantly dropping due to the bear market and inflation impacts, a common issue for early-stage projects with low circulation rates.
● Key to Launch:
Further global emphasis on environmental infrastructure, with Eco projects becoming a focal point in blockchain discussions.

● Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M

9.ContextLogic (Wish) NASDAQ:WISH

● Basic Introduction:
Wish is a U.S.-based e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Its parent company, ContextLogic Inc., is headquartered in San Francisco, USA, primarily selling inexpensive household items, clothing, jewelry, electronics, toys, etc.

● Core Logic:
Overhyped by consortia like Goldman Sachs in 2020, leading to a steady fall to the verge of delisting. Prices are near low, with recent market actions and promotions starting to revive.

● Key to Launch:
Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group purchases by the consumption downgrade population.
Entry of new major institutions into the acquisition process.
Revival in financial reports and business.

● Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 0.1B, Expected MC FDV: 2B-10B

10.Waves Enterprises (West) KUCOIN:WESTUSDT


● Basic Introduction:

Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructures. As a hybrid solution, it combines enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the advantages of public permissioned blockchain across a wide range of business use cases.

Sidechains are used for building private or hybrid infrastructures, storing metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token (WEST), the native utility token for all network operations.

● Core Logic:
Enterprise-grade public and private hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises.

● Key to Launch:
Further support for blockchain technology from Russia, with traditional oligarchs and consortiums responding to related policies.
Further popularization

Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2-5M fluctuation, Expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B--- if designated by Russia)

Summary:

This article analyzes the long-term potential value of several projects. Some have survived through significant trials and tribulations, and others possess superior fundamentals and philosophies but lack market operation capabilities and are in need of a discerning eye. Therefore, while they have potential, it does not guarantee they will meet expectations, and they may also suffer unexpected setbacks.

The global economy has not yet emerged from the mire; in fact, it can be likened to treading on thin ice where the superficial prosperity cannot mask the unresolved core flaws. Certain festering issues and malignancies have yet to be addressed, so even as the future for AI and blockchain seems bright, it's prudent for individuals and institutions to adhere to a set of personal principles.

For emerging public chains like SEI, TIA, and Layer 2 solutions, as well as diverse projects like Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta involving Restaking, LSD, and other novel mechanisms, the extended lock-up periods of this investment round make early valuations even more challenging to gauge. This tests the responsibility and habits of the project teams since the majority of tokens are still in their hands. If the foundation dumps early, new projects could experience significant setbacks. However, there's also the possibility of projects like TIA achieving "vintage" valuations, though such outcomes are difficult to predict swiftly.

The development of the blockchain industry is expected to be relatively bright in the coming years. However, it's important to reiterate the caution stated at the beginning of this article: long-term valuations do not mean a continuous upward trend from current price points. The market could experience intense volatility, similar to a scenario where BTC suddenly drops to 1K and then rebounds to 40k, although such an event is highly unlikely. If one can maintain a healthy position in such scenarios, there should be no cause for concern.

Remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. Try to avoid or minimize engagement with contracts unless for entertainment and if you possess sufficient self-discipline. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) remains the primary way to maintain a healthy investment strategy.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment or financial advice but merely reflects the author's opinions and insights, hoping for mutual learning and progress.