Shopify Inc.Long
BIG Money Accumulating SHOP shares? Wyckoff Accumulation Forming
Opposite the Wyckoff Distribution is the Wyckoff Accumulation. This is a sign of buying from big money. It shares many elements of the distribution and is broken into 5 phases. I will briefly outline them below...
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Wyckoff Accum Phases
Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. We should see volume taper and spreads widen (price-volume divergence). Big money will scoop up shares to create the AR on increased volume. A trading range is created using SC and AR.
Phase B: Is the actual accumulation phase. Prices are low and easy to grab. Expect the price to ping pong within the trading range as big money optimizes their average. Expect many stop hunts and false breakouts to free up shares.
Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “big money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. The shakeout is the optimal entry point but it does not always occur.
Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone.
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I believe the following points are in line with the phases above:
It is reasonable to assume we are in or transitioning to phase D. It is important that we see some form of consolidation to confirm the upward move. If we do not, we could see more tests of supply and moves back into the trading range. We are currently above the 50 Dynamic Moving Average but below the 100 EMA. This shows that the medium-term trend is flipping bullish but the longer-term trend is still down. The vol osc is also showing increases in volume supporting the move upward. Higher time frames also indicate that this trading range formed at previous support.
Overall, I think the stars are aligning to take this stock higher. Eager to hear your thoughts.
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Wyckoff Accum Phases
Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. We should see volume taper and spreads widen (price-volume divergence). Big money will scoop up shares to create the AR on increased volume. A trading range is created using SC and AR.
Phase B: Is the actual accumulation phase. Prices are low and easy to grab. Expect the price to ping pong within the trading range as big money optimizes their average. Expect many stop hunts and false breakouts to free up shares.
Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “big money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. The shakeout is the optimal entry point but it does not always occur.
Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone.
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I believe the following points are in line with the phases above:
- Decreasing volume and a widening spread before the start of the range. It is then followed by buying on increased volume. We have already seen Phase A.
- Phase B is the accumulation. Note the increases in volume on the up moves but decreases in volume on the down moves. I think Phase B is mostly over if it has not been completed already.
- Phase C will often have a shakeout. SHOP reported earnings and dumped to the lower end of the trading range. Although it did not break the range, I think this was the anticipated shakeout. We have since climbed higher on average volume and have now broken the upper range.
It is reasonable to assume we are in or transitioning to phase D. It is important that we see some form of consolidation to confirm the upward move. If we do not, we could see more tests of supply and moves back into the trading range. We are currently above the 50 Dynamic Moving Average but below the 100 EMA. This shows that the medium-term trend is flipping bullish but the longer-term trend is still down. The vol osc is also showing increases in volume supporting the move upward. Higher time frames also indicate that this trading range formed at previous support.
Overall, I think the stars are aligning to take this stock higher. Eager to hear your thoughts.
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