An Occidental Petroleum breakout is imminent

26 paź 2023

Occidental Petroleum is going to break to the upside soon

Geo political news:

Wars create demand for oil and there is no shortage of warfare taking place globally. The blue parallel channel starts from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I need not mention what started a few weeks ago..

OPEC+ has already vowed to continue tightening output through the end of the year and if there are any embargos that take place on top of that, supply will be further compromised.

Cyclical realities:

Winter also creates demand since the cooler temperatures lead to increased use of oil byproducts.

Increased demand coupled with decreased supply leads to...

The white trend line from the pandemic low indicates that we are living out the reality of the trend. The price action is so faithful to that trendline, it's almost delicious to look at.

So what does this mean for me?

I wont reveal my exact play, but it's definitely not intra-day. (Some poetry for those that caught it)

I got a nice ITM call about a week ago which lost a bit of value since there was a correction, but since the expiry date is a few months out, I think it will produce some juicy, fat profits once time begins to tell all.

Since OXY should follow the trend of oil prices and since it is a domestic company that would contribute to the replenishment of the SPR if the U.S. decides to go that way, I think OXY is a nice portfolio addition/ swing trade opportunity.

• The regression trend since the beginning of the war in Ukraine is flat which indicates that we are in a consolidation channel that has not truly broken out to the upside yet.
  
  
• The pandemic low trendline is perfectly overlapping with the parallel channel that I drew beginning on the Ukraine invasion date. This indicates to me that we are trending up up and away but are due to see a catalyst for this true breakout.
  
  
• Either a news event (like earnings or geopolitics) with cause a sharp breakout or we will melt up along the trendline.
  
  

Let me know what you think!

22 lis 2023

Zlecenie aktywne

This is the calm before a storm. The price of crude oil is dropping swiftly despite macro trends and geo political events that should be boosting it or at the very least bouying it.

Now i'm convinced that a sudden event or policy shift is going to reverse the several-week-long decline in crude oil.

Something doesn't add up.

I'm going to sink with the ship if the trend doesnt reverse by March. I knew there was room for market shenanigans so I purchased an option with a DTE several months out. I'm taking this one to 0 DTE if I have to.